2024 年新加坡终于会有“可负担”的住房了吗?
January 10, 2024
媒体报道、HDB 组屋布告栏,以及几乎所有渠道似乎都在传达一个讯息:价格正在回落、供应回升等。几乎让人感觉有某个重大事件在推动这种“安抚民心”的需要……但此刻,可以肯定首次购房者对于任何缓解迹象都求之不得。后疫情时代对这一挣扎中的群体确实并不友善:
房价会被上升的房贷利率所抑制吗?
在今日一则新闻中,国家发展部表示房贷利率预计将维持在 3.7 and 4.4 per cent 之间,这可能对房价上涨形成上限。对此我们表示认同,我们也曾讨论过,即便房贷利率“略微”上调,实际需要多付的金额会有多可观(见下方数据以及这篇文章)。
| 贷款金额 | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 4.50% | 5.00% | 5.50% | 6.00% | 6.50% | 7.00% |
| $300,000 | $1,131 | $1,200 | $1,272 | $1,346 | $1,423 | $1,502 | $1,584 | $1,667 | $1,754 | $1,842 | $1,933 | $2,026 | $2,120 |
| $400,000 | $1,507 | $1,600 | $1,695 | $1,794 | $1,897 | $2,002 | $2,111 | $2,223 | $2,338 | $2,456 | $2,577 | $2,701 | $2,827 |
| $500,000 | $1,884 | $2,000 | $2,119 | $2,243 | $2,371 | $2,503 | $2,639 | $2,779 | $2,923 | $3,070 | $3,222 | $3,376 | $3,534 |
| $600,000 | $2,261 | $2,400 | $2,543 | $2,692 | $2,845 | $3,004 | $3,167 | $3,335 | $3,508 | $3,685 | $3,866 | $4,051 | $4,241 |
| $700,000 | $2,638 | $2,800 | $2,967 | $3,140 | $3,319 | $3,504 | $3,695 | $3,891 | $4,092 | $4,299 | $4,510 | $4,726 | $4,947 |
| $800,000 | $3,015 | $3,199 | $3,391 | $3,589 | $3,794 | $4,005 | $4,223 | $4,447 | $4,677 | $4,913 | $5,154 | $5,402 | $5,654 |
| $900,000 | $3,392 | $3,599 | $3,815 | $4,038 | $4,268 | $4,506 | $4,751 | $5,002 | $5,261 | $5,527 | $5,799 | $6,077 | $6,361 |
| $1,000,000 | $3,769 | $3,999 | $4,239 | $4,486 | $4,742 | $5,006 | $5,278 | $5,558 | $5,846 | $6,141 | $6,443 | $6,752 | $7,068 |
| $1,100,000 | $4,146 | $4,399 | $4,662 | $4,935 | $5,216 | $5,507 | $5,806 | $6,114 | $6,430 | $6,755 | $7,087 | $7,427 | $7,775 |
| $1,200,000 | $4,522 | $4,799 | $5,086 | $5,383 | $5,691 | $6,007 | $6,334 | $6,670 | $7,015 | $7,369 | $7,732 | $8,102 | $8,481 |
| $1,300,000 | $4,899 | $5,199 | $5,510 | $5,832 | $6,165 | $6,508 | $6,862 | $7,226 | $7,600 | $7,983 | $8,376 | $8,778 | $9,188 |
| $1,400,000 | $5,276 | $5,599 | $5,934 | $6,281 | $6,639 | $7,009 | $7,390 | $7,782 | $8,184 | $8,597 | $9,020 | $9,453 | $9,895 |
| $1,500,000 | $5,653 | $5,999 | $6,358 | $6,729 | $7,113 | $7,509 | $7,918 | $8,337 | $8,769 | $9,211 | $9,665 | $10,128 | $10,602 |
| $1,600,000 | $6,030 | $6,399 | $6,782 | $7,178 | $7,587 | $8,010 | $8,445 | $8,893 | $9,353 | $9,825 | $10,309 | $10,803 | $11,308 |
| $1,700,000 | $6,407 | $6,799 | $7,206 | $7,626 | $8,062 | $8,511 | $8,973 | $9,449 | $9,938 | $10,439 | $10,953 | $11,479 | $12,015 |
| $1,800,000 | $6,784 | $7,199 | $7,629 | $8,075 | $8,536 | $9,011 | $9,501 | $10,005 | $10,523 | $11,054 | $11,597 | $12,154 | $12,722 |
| $1,900,000 | $7,161 | $7,599 | $8,053 | $8,524 | $9,010 | $9,512 | $10,029 | $10,561 | $11,107 | $11,668 | $12,242 | $12,829 | $13,429 |
| $2,000,000 | $7,537 | $7,999 | $8,477 | $8,972 | $9,484 | $10,012 | $10,557 | $11,117 | $11,692 | $12,282 | $12,886 | $13,504 | $14,136 |
| $2,500,000 | $9,422 | $9,998 | $10,596 | $11,215 | $11,855 | $12,516 | $13,196 | $13,896 | $14,615 | $15,352 | $16,108 | $16,880 | $17,669 |
| $3,000,000 | $11,306 | $11,998 | $12,716 | $13,459 | $14,226 | $15,019 | $15,835 | $16,675 | $17,538 | $18,423 | $19,329 | $20,256 | $21,203 |
| $3,500,000 | $13,191 | $13,998 | $14,835 | $15,702 | $16,597 | $17,522 | $18,474 | $19,454 | $20,461 | $21,493 | $22,551 | $23,632 | $24,737 |
| $4,000,000 | $15,075 | $15,997 | $16,954 | $17,945 | $18,968 | $20,025 | $21,113 | $22,233 | $23,384 | $24,563 | $25,772 | $27,008 | $28,271 |
| $4,500,000 | $16,959 | $17,997 | $19,073 | $20,188 | $21,340 | $22,528 | $23,753 | $25,012 | $26,307 | $27,634 | $28,994 | $30,384 | $31,805 |
| $5,000,000 | $18,844 | $19,997 | $21,193 | $22,431 | $23,711 | $25,031 | $26,392 | $27,792 | $29,230 | $30,704 | $32,215 | $33,760 | $35,339 |
| $6,000,000 | $22,612 | $23,996 | $25,431 | $26,917 | $28,453 | $30,037 | $31,670 | $33,350 | $35,075 | $36,845 | $38,658 | $40,512 | $42,407 |
| $7,000,000 | $26,381 | $27,996 | $29,670 | $31,403 | $33,195 | $35,044 | $36,949 | $38,908 | $40,921 | $42,986 | $45,101 | $47,265 | $49,475 |
| $8,000,000 | $30,150 | $31,995 | $33,908 | $35,889 | $37,937 | $40,050 | $42,227 | $44,467 | $46,767 | $49,127 | $51,544 | $54,017 | $56,542 |
| $9,000,000 | $33,919 | $35,994 | $38,147 | $40,376 | $42,679 | $45,056 | $47,505 | $50,025 | $52,613 | $55,268 | $57,987 | $60,769 | $63,610 |
| $10,000,000 | $37,687 | $39,994 | $42,385 | $44,862 | $47,421 | $50,062 | $52,784 | $55,583 | $58,459 | $61,409 | $64,430 | $67,521 | $70,678 |
不过需要补充的是,2024 年美联储或可能降息。美国联邦储备局(the Fed)通常在经济前景转弱时降息,而这会传导至新加坡,促使本地利率走低。
问题在于,2024 年的政策走向并不明朗。一方面,鉴于增长放缓,市场预期会有部分降息;但近几周也出现更多质疑降息幅度的报道。无论如何,房贷利率在来年有可能小幅回落,这也可能消除一部分买家的顾虑。
就观点而言:如果政府真要抑制价格,其实可以直接上调用于计算总债务偿还率(TDSR)的评估利率下限。当前为 four per cent,但鉴于实际利率已显著上行,政府完全可以合理上调。
(TDSR 规定你的房贷月供加上其他未清贷款的月供总和,最高不得超过你月收入的 55 per cent)。
总体而言,更可能被劝退的是以投资为导向的买家,因为较高利率会直接压缩他们的收益。但自住买家通常对房贷利率不那么敏感;多数人把它视为无可奈何的成本(除非他们愿意完全放弃私宅转而购买 HDB 组屋……而这还得能拿到 HDB 贷款)。
住房供应紧张状况或正趋缓
可以看到,HDB 建设的高烧状态正在降温。比如,今年将仅推出三次而非四次 BTO,这很可能是在回应首次申请者的申请率回落。
话虽如此,把这当作对买家的利好来宣传就有些奇怪(援引 HDB:申请者“现在将有更高的机会,找到符合其预算与需求的组屋”)。也就是说,单次推出的房源数目或许更多,但全年总推出量其实还是下调了。

此外,多数市场观察者本来也预期今年 HDB 建设会有所放缓。原因在于 HDB 在 2022 与 2023 年全力冲刺,过去两年将供应提升了 35 per cent。如果再继续加码,我们可能会面临类似 1990 年代的 HDB 供应过剩。尽管首次购房者或许希望如此,但从更广泛的市场角度看,维持当前态势可能更为稳妥。
不过,我们认为 2024 年部分特定区域的转售组屋价格仍会走高
2024 年将推出 Plus 模式住房。与 Prime 组屋相似,靠近 Plus 与 Prime 区域、但不受 Plus 与 Prime 限制所累的转售组屋,价格很可能将受到带动。一位中介表示:“几乎不会有人望着窗外的 Prime 或 Plus 组屋,还觉得自己房子的价格应该原地踏步。”

一些中介也指出,2022 年实施的部分卖家 15 个月等待期*即将到期。理论上,这可能推高一贯的热点区域(如 Queenstown、Bishan、Tanjong Pagar)的价格。原因在于售出私宅的卖家通常现金充裕,更能在热门 HDB 地段承担较高的 Cash Over Valuation(COV)。
*15 个月等待期自 30th September 2022 起实施。出售私宅者须等待 15 个月后,方可购买转售组屋。
在私宅方面,我们也看到供应紧张正在缓解。今年约有 38 个全新项目将推出,合计约 11,600+ 套新单位;而去年部分超大型项目(如新加坡最大公寓项目、拥有逾 2,200 套单位的 Treasure at Tampines)完成交付,也有望令租赁市场转软。
尽管如此,要说私宅价格会明显回落仍不容易,毕竟开发商利润空间已被大幅挤压;但若要把大众化新盘的定价进一步推高至当前约 $2,100+ psf 之上,开发商恐怕也会面临不小阻力。
加码观察:2024 年值得关注的 Turf City 规划
Turf City 将在今年稍后纳入总体规划,草案将揭示这块近 140 公顷(约 200 个足球场)用地的规划方向。这也会再次显著增加 HDB 组屋的供应量。

由于地处 Bukit Timah,这里势必坐拥极佳的绿色景观;加之社区声望已然确立,预计会有很高的需求。但与此同时,该区公共交通的便捷性并非最优;因此,Cross Island Line 上设立 Turf City MRT 站的既定规划,无疑是一大利好。
对于未来几年内计划购屋的读者而言,这将是一个值得关注的区域。它与 Bayshore 地带有些相似之处:这是把大型 HDB 项目引入以私宅为主的社区(而且此前并非最易达)的案例。
整体信息相当清晰:我们在 2022 与 ’23 年所见的情况,今年不太可能重演。鉴于当下民意的重要性(一些关键事件即将到来),可以肯定的是,2024 年任何出乎意料的价格飙升,都会比以往更快触发新的降温措施。无论如何,或许也是卖方调整预期的时候了。
在 Stacked,我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字,关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划,可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题,或想分享你的想法,也欢迎写信给我们:stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。点击此处阅读英文原文。
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