The “99-year time bomb” has been a topic of public discussion as far back as the 1990s. We all know that HDB flats have 99-year leases, so what happens when they get older?
Given that the value of a property typically falls as its lease runs down, surely at some point, the market price of an HDB flat will start falling and eventually might hit zero. This issue takes on a more urgent tone as we progress into 2026 and beyond.
This is because no more flats will be redeveloped under the government’s Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS). The SERS programme was once considered the saviour of ageing flats, as it meant older flats would be redeveloped and owners compensated with newer flats nearby. But now that it’s gone, there may be no more “hope premium” even in the best located but ageing flats.
Despite this, we’ve noticed something odd about HDB flat prices. Based on HDB resale data, there are a small group of flats that – for inexplicable reasons – refuse to see price drops despite ever-growing lease decay.
In this article, we’re going to try to pinpoint where they are, and try to identify why they’re able to defy time and an expiring lease:
How our analysis will be conducted
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