过去最稳妥的做法，是先从一套 HDB BTO 起步，尽量节省开支，待时机成熟转售套现，再升级到私人公寓；或者至少上到一套 EC。只是如今私宅价格屡创新高，这条老路还行得通吗？我们将以 2024 年新加坡楼市为背景，检视升级到公寓的现实情况。
说明：鉴于目前仍处于 2024 年初，我们将以 2023 年的价格来评估私人住宅的可负担性。
更新：本文已更新，以反映购买新行政公寓时 MSR 的适用情况。
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
如果你有类似的困惑，我们提供结构化的一对一咨询，帮你全面梳理财务状况、购房目标与市场选项：客观分析，不带立场。
没有任何义务，只是让你更清晰。
点击了解更多 这里。
情景 1：升级到三卧房
多数 HDB 升级者以家庭为主，因此迷你户型或小两房并不实用。一般而言，他们至少需要一套三卧房公寓，面积通常在 900 至 1,100 平方英尺之间——与 4-room 组屋（约 970 平方英尺）相比，体量不会缩小太多。市面上也有更小的三卧房公寓，但这类户型往往普通卧室只能放下一张单人床（更别提杂物间或服务阳台了）。
在这种情况下，不妨考虑 EC（行政公寓）。
先看看典型 4-room 组屋的大致转售价。以下假设这对升级者在 2013 年以 BTO 方式购买 4-room；建设期平均约 4 年，此后自住 10 年再出售升级。这大致是我们最常见的一条时间线：
| BTO 项目 | 4-room | 建成年份 |
| Fernvale Crest | $226,500 | 2013 |
| Boon Lay Meadow | $244,500 | 2013 |
| Fernvale Palms | $238,000 | 2013 |
| Punggol Ripples | $277,000 | 2013 |
| Punggol Sails | $277,000 | 2013 |
| Segar Grove | $230,000 | 2013 |
| Montreal Dale | $248,500 | 2013 |
| Buangkok Vale | $259,500 | 2013 |
| Limbang Green | $252,000 | 2013 |
| Punggol Crest | $274,000 | 2013 |
| Treegrove@Woodlands | $258,000 | 2013 |
| Fernvale Ridge | $243,500 | 2013 |
| Sembawang RiverLodge | $240,000 | 2013 |
| Boon Lay Grove | $263,000 | 2013 |
| Floral Spring | $240,500 | 2013 |
| Fernvale Foliage | $247,500 | 2013 |
| Rivervale Arc | $231,500 | 2013 |
| Yishun Riverwalk | $241,000 | 2013 |
| Anchorvale Horizon | $310,500 | 2013 |
| Orchid Spring @ Yishun | $254,000 | 2013 |
| Segar Vale | $255,000 | 2013 |
| Montreal Ville | $282,500 | 2013 |
| Anchorvale Isles | $291,500 | 2013 |
以 2013 年的新屋计，价格约为 $256,000。
| 项目 | 中位价 |
| Anchorvale Horizon | $592,500 |
| Anchorvale Isles | $602,500 |
| Boon Lay Grove | $548,500 |
| Boon Lay Meadow | $525,000 |
| Buangkok Vale | $562,500 |
| Fernvale Crest | $550,000 |
| Fernvale Foliage | $575,888 |
| Fernvale Palms | $565,000 |
| Fernvale Ridge | $540,000 |
| Floral Spring | $525,000 |
| Limbang Green | $500,000 |
| Montreal Dale | $522,000 |
| Montreal Ville | $525,000 |
| Orchid Spring @ Yishun | $525,500 |
| Punggol Crest | $581,888 |
| Punggol Ripples | $608,000 |
| Punggol Sails | $633,000 |
| Rivervale Arc | $532,500 |
| Segar Grove | $527,500 |
| Segar Vale | $517,944 |
| Sembawang RiverLodge | $530,000 |
| Treegrove@Woodlands | $576,944 |
| Yishun Riverwalk | $536,000 |
| Median | $540,000 |
约 10 年后，同类 4-room 的转售价约为 $540,000。
接着看看出售这套房升级时，账面如何。为简化起见，以下暂不计入 CPF 的使用（若曾以 CPF 支付房款，卖方需把动用的 CPF 本金与累积利息一并归还，这会显著减少成交后可留在手上的现金）。
| 项目 | 金额 |
| 购买价 | $256,000 |
| 首付款 (10%) | $25,600 |
| HDB 贷款额 | $230,400 |
| 10 年后尚欠贷款 | $164,036 |
| 项目 | 金额 |
| 出售价 | $540,000 |
| 减：尚欠贷款 | -$164,036 |
| 减：中介费 | -$10,800 |
| 剩余现金 | $365,164 |
这笔 $365,000 可用于购买 EC，对支付首付款至关重要。
（另外要特别注意，EC 不可使用 HDB 贷款，必须用银行贷款，因此 EC 的首付 5% 必须以现金支付——不同于 HDB，首期可完全用 CPF 支付）。
再假设这对升级者的家庭月总收入为 $10,394（按中位数月薪 $5,197 的双职家庭计算。若你不认同，别怪我们，这是新闻报道的说法）。
若取得最长期 30 年的房贷，并受 TDSR 限制（会将每月总还款上限定为月收入的 55%，并计入其他债务），其可贷额约为 $1,108,667；这意味着可承受的 EC 最高总价约为 $1,478,223。
（注：此处假设没有车贷、个人贷款等其他债务，否则 TDSR 上限会进一步下调。此外，这样的测算已把杠杆推至极限；实务上建议将债务控制在月收入约 30%，能多存就多存）。
他们的出售现金流（$365,164）基本足以覆盖 EC 的余下首付款（采用银行贷款时，最低首付为 25%）。
按上述条件，他们能考虑哪些 3 房 EC？
| 项目名称 | 最低价 | 均价 | 最高价 | 与最低价的差额/盈余 | 与均价的差额/盈余 |
| 1 CANBERRA | $1,050,000 | $1,172,273 | $1,220,000 | $428,223 | $305,950 |
| ARC AT TAMPINES | $1,125,000 | $1,305,407 | $1,533,000 | $353,223 | $172,816 |
| AUSTVILLE RESIDENCES | $1,200,000 | $1,302,533 | $1,500,000 | $278,223 | $175,690 |
| BELLEWATERS | $1,200,000 | $1,345,755 | $1,458,000 | $278,223 | $132,468 |
| BELLEWOODS | $1,090,000 | $1,212,727 | $1,330,000 | $388,223 | $265,496 |
| BELYSA | $1,088,000 | $1,302,750 | $1,418,000 | $390,223 | $175,473 |
| ECOPOLITAN | $1,100,000 | $1,275,935 | $1,400,000 | $378,223 | $202,288 |
| ESPARINA RESIDENCES | $1,450,000 | $1,607,894 | $1,850,000 | $28,223 | -$129,671 |
| FORESTVILLE | $1,150,000 | $1,194,667 | $1,240,000 | $328,223 | $283,556 |
| HERON BAY | $1,150,000 | $1,287,000 | $1,338,000 | $328,223 | $191,223 |
| INZ RESIDENCE | $1,250,000 | $1,250,000 | $1,250,000 | $228,223 | $228,223 |
| LAKE LIFE | $1,313,100 | $1,446,748 | $1,588,000 | $165,123 | $31,475 |
| LUSH ACRES | $1,150,000 | $1,289,654 | $1,500,000 | $328,223 | $188,569 |
| NUOVO | $1,150,000 | $1,150,000 | $1,150,000 | $328,223 | $328,223 |
| PARC LIFE | $1,060,000 | $1,309,942 | $1,490,000 | $418,223 | $168,281 |
| PARK GREEN | $1,155,000 | $1,155,000 | $1,155,000 | $323,223 | $323,223 |
| PRIVE | $1,300,000 | $1,441,158 | $1,658,000 | $178,223 | $37,065 |
| RIVERPARC RESIDENCE | $1,233,000 | $1,349,991 | $1,500,000 | $245,223 | $128,232 |
| SEA HORIZON | $1,270,000 | $1,305,000 | $1,380,000 | $208,223 | $173,223 |
| SIGNATURE AT YISHUN | $1,128,000 | $1,259,936 | $1,408,888 | $350,223 | $218,287 |
| SIMEI GREEN CONDOMINIUM | $960,000 | $985,000 | $1,010,000 | $518,223 | $493,223 |
| SKYPARK RESIDENCES | $1,250,000 | $1,407,315 | $1,488,888 | $228,223 | $70,908 |
| SOL ACRES | $1,150,000 | $1,351,581 | $1,568,000 | $328,223 | $126,642 |
| THE AMORE | $1,140,000 | $1,285,998 | $1,466,888 | $338,223 | $192,225 |
| THE BROWNSTONE | $1,150,000 | $1,266,253 | $1,560,000 | $328,223 | $211,970 |
| THE CANOPY | $970,000 | $1,060,833 | $1,260,000 | $508,223 | $417,390 |
| THE CRITERION | $1,062,670 | $1,209,432 | $1,385,000 | $415,553 | $268,791 |
| THE EDEN AT TAMPINES | $1,110,000 | $1,110,000 | $1,110,000 | $368,223 | $368,223 |
| THE ESPARIS | $1,160,000 | $1,160,000 | $1,160,000 | $318,223 | $318,223 |
| THE RAINFOREST | $1,178,888 | $1,378,148 | $1,550,000 | $299,335 | $100,075 |
| THE TAMPINES TRILLIANT | $1,398,000 | $1,523,164 | $1,700,000 | $80,223 | -$44,941 |
| THE TERRACE | $1,120,000 | $1,350,976 | $1,588,888 | $358,223 | $127,247 |
| THE TOPIARY | $1,020,000 | $1,290,413 | $1,430,888 | $458,223 | $187,810 |
| THE VALES | $1,110,000 | $1,325,196 | $1,499,000 | $368,223 | $153,027 |
| THE VISIONAIRE | $1,030,000 | $1,312,708 | $1,500,000 | $448,223 | $165,515 |
| TREASURE CREST | $1,270,000 | $1,469,645 | $1,688,000 | $208,223 | $8,578 |
| TWIN FOUNTAINS | $1,270,000 | $1,278,750 | $1,290,000 | $208,223 | $199,473 |
| TWIN WATERFALLS | $1,175,000 | $1,373,542 | $1,568,000 | $303,223 | $104,681 |
| WANDERVALE | $1,220,000 | $1,406,828 | $1,580,000 | $258,223 | $71,395 |
| WATERBAY | $1,320,000 | $1,379,200 | $1,440,000 | $158,223 | $99,023 |
| WATERCOLOURS | $1,000,000 | $1,164,111 | $1,350,000 | $478,223 | $314,112 |
| WATERWOODS | $1,285,000 | $1,358,571 | $1,420,000 | $193,223 | $119,652 |
| WHITEWATER | $1,068,000 | $1,162,286 | $1,208,000 | $410,223 | $315,937 |
| YEW MEI GREEN | $955,000 | $1,010,296 | $1,040,888 | $523,223 | $467,927 |
| 总计 | $955,000 | $1,331,444 | $1,850,000 | $523,223 | $146,779 |
可选空间不小，升级到 EC 在操作上可行；但仍建议先多存一笔，不要把 TDSR 压到极限。
那么升级到纯私人公寓呢？
坦白说，2024 年要实现这点更难。为更贴近现实，我们只看转售公寓，原因下文再述。先列出目前能找到的最便宜转售三卧：
| 项目名称 | 成交价 ($) | 面积 (SQFT) | 卧室 | 单位价格 ($ PSF) | 成交日期 | 年限 |
| HOUGANG GREEN | $900,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 774 | 3 Jan 2023 | 99 yrs from 01/12/1994 |
| HOUGANG GREEN | $918,000 | 1,130 | 3 | 812 | 21 Aug 2023 | 99 yrs from 01/12/1994 |
| ROSEWOOD SUITES | $980,000 | 1,098 | 3 | 893 | 12 Jan 2023 | 99 yrs from 25/02/2008 |
| CRYSTAL LODGE | $980,000 | 1,152 | 3 | 851 | 17 May 2023 | Freehold |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,040,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 895 | 30 Jan 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| EVERGREEN PARK | $1,050,000 | 1,173 | 3 | 895 | 3 Mar 2023 | 99 yrs from 01/10/1995 |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,050,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 903 | 7 Jun 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,050,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 903 | 29 Dec 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| SKIES MILTONIA | $1,058,800 | 969 | 3 | 1,093 | 13 Feb 2023 | 99 yrs from 20/02/2012 |
| SYMPHONY SUITES | $1,058,888 | 915 | 3 | 1,157 | 2 Mar 2023 | 99 yrs from 10/06/2014 |
| FLO RESIDENCE | $1,060,000 | 926 | 3 | 1,145 | 5 Jun 2023 | 99 yrs from 05/12/2011 |
| SYMPHONY SUITES | $1,068,000 | $893 | 3 | 1,195 | 14 Sept 2023 | 99 yrs from 10/06/2014 |
| SYMPHONY SUITES | $1,070,000 | 915 | 3 | 1,169 | 11 October 2023 | 99 yrs from 10/06/2014 |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,075,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 925 | 1 Mar 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| HEDGES PARK CONDOMINIUM | $1,080,000 | 1,001 | 3 | 1,079 | 21 Feb 2023 | 99 yrs from 28/07/2010 |
| NINE RESIDENCES | $1,080,000 | 904 | 3 | 1,194 | 2 May 2023 | 99 yrs from 30/04/2013 |
这份名单中唯一的永久地契项目是 Crystal Lodge，但它并非严格意义上的公寓（属于 Apartment，没有公共配套）。此外，它靠近芽笼红灯区，老实说更像一处用于出租的资产，而非自住的家庭住宅。
其他项目本身并无不妥，但普遍离 MRT 较远，或屋龄偏大。升级者需适当降低预期。
尽管如此，我们把网撒得更广一些，来看不同规划区内的私人非有地三卧：
| 区域 | 最低价 | 均价 | 最高价 | 与最低价的差额 | 与均价的差额 |
| Ang Mo Kio | $1,418,000 | $2,178,301 | $2,638,000 | $60,223 | -$700,078 |
| Bedok | $1,180,000 | $1,765,506 | $2,381,000 | $298,223 | -$287,283 |
| Bishan | $1,420,000 | $2,047,220 | $2,550,000 | $58,223 | -$568,997 |
| Bukit Batok | $1,100,000 | $1,558,985 | $1,981,000 | $378,223 | -$80,762 |
| Bukit Merah | $1,760,000 | $2,172,104 | $2,946,760 | -$281,777 | -$693,881 |
| Bukit Panjang | $1,500,000 | $2,005,468 | $2,320,000 | -$21,777 | -$527,245 |
| Bukit Timah | $1,758,000 | $2,663,116 | $3,583,597 | -$279,777 | -$1,184,893 |
| Choa Chu Kang | $1,040,000 | $1,107,083 | $1,250,000 | $438,223 | $371,140 |
| Clementi | $1,350,000 | $1,863,736 | $2,608,800 | $128,223 | -$385,513 |
| Downtown Core | $2,400,000 | $2,679,166 | $3,012,000 | -$921,777 | -$1,200,943 |
| Geylang | $980,000 | $1,887,128 | $2,508,000 | $498,223 | -$408,905 |
| Hougang | $900,000 | $1,639,116 | $2,338,800 | $578,223 | -$160,893 |
| Jurong East | $1,198,000 | $1,541,000 | $1,910,000 | $280,223 | -$62,777 |
| Jurong West | $1,220,000 | $1,604,344 | $2,080,000 | $258,223 | -$126,121 |
| Kallang | $1,352,888 | $1,704,745 | $2,780,000 | $125,335 | -$226,522 |
| Marine Parade | $1,720,000 | $2,434,410 | $3,271,550 | -$241,777 | -$956,187 |
| Museum | $2,575,000 | $2,649,167 | $2,828,000 | -$1,096,777 | -$1,170,944 |
| Newton | $2,863,000 | $3,093,370 | $3,300,000 | -$1,384,777 | -$1,615,147 |
| Novena | $1,150,000 | $2,810,511 | $4,046,000 | $328,223 | -$1,332,288 |
| Outram | $2,445,888 | $2,931,537 | $3,314,880 | -$967,665 | -$1,453,314 |
| Pasir Ris | $1,080,000 | $1,363,854 | $1,770,000 | $398,223 | $114,369 |
| Punggol | $1,060,000 | $1,344,494 | $1,680,000 | $418,223 | $133,729 |
| Queenstown | $1,570,000 | $2,030,514 | $2,560,000 | -$91,777 | -$552,291 |
| River Valley | $1,800,000 | $2,384,543 | $2,906,800 | -$321,777 | -$906,320 |
| Rochor | $1,586,000 | $1,745,808 | $2,400,000 | -$107,777 | -$267,585 |
| Sembawang | $1,120,000 | $1,208,990 | $1,298,888 | $358,223 | $269,233 |
| Sengkang | $1,118,000 | $1,419,492 | $1,860,000 | $360,223 | $58,731 |
| Serangoon | $1,280,000 | $1,864,338 | $2,150,000 | $198,223 | -$386,115 |
| Singapore River | $2,350,000 | $3,262,986 | $3,680,000 | -$871,777 | -$1,784,763 |
| Tampines | $1,120,000 | $1,542,423 | $1,884,000 | $358,223 | -$64,200 |
| Tanglin | $1,900,000 | $2,730,233 | $3,579,840 | -$421,777 | -$1,252,010 |
| Toa Payoh | $1,528,888 | $1,970,519 | $2,441,000 | -$50,665 | -$492,296 |
| Woodlands | $980,000 | $1,134,000 | $1,288,000 | $498,223 | $344,223 |
| Yishun | $1,058,800 | $1,284,464 | $1,960,000 | $419,423 | $193,759 |
| 总计 | $900,000 | $1,952,269 | $4,046,000 | $578,223 | -$474,046 |
即便不看新盘，也会发现不少区域的总价已逼近 $2 million，甚至已经突破。仍有少数区域或许可行，例如 Choa Chu Kang、Woodlands、Yishun；若以中位收入衡量，Pasir Ris、Punggol、Sembawang 也可纳入考虑。
这些名字并不意外，基本都是传统的“相对可负担”区域（也就是发展程度较低、价格相对亲民的地带）。
基于上述数据，更务实的做法还是优先考虑 EC。虽然 EC 尚未完全被私人公寓的价格挤出选项，但对多数人来说已相当吃力。
如果你坚持要升级到新盘公寓……
的确如此。近几个月，升级到新盘更为艰难。自 Covid 之后，即便是边缘地带的新盘，$2,000+ psf 的定价也几乎成了新常态：
| 项目 | 平均价格 | 差额 |
| 10 Evelyn | $3,404,883 | -$1,926,660 |
| Altura | $1,397,000 | $81,223 |
| Atlassia | $2,506,516 | -$1,028,293 |
| Bartley Vue | $2,086,818 | -$608,595 |
| Blossoms By The Park | $2,557,462 | -$1,079,239 |
| Claydence | $2,849,055 | -$1,370,832 |
| Cuscaden Reserve | $4,289,000 | -$2,810,777 |
| Enchante | $2,971,913 | -$1,493,690 |
| Grand Dunman | $3,005,681 | -$1,527,458 |
| Hill House | $2,325,857 | -$847,634 |
| Ikigai | $3,843,560 | -$2,365,337 |
| Ki Residences At Brookvale | $2,393,333 | -$915,110 |
| Klimt Cairnhill | $5,357,650 | -$3,879,427 |
| Lentor Hills Residences | $2,293,123 | -$814,900 |
| Lentor Modern | $2,422,615 | -$944,392 |
| Lumina Grand | $1,425,108 | $53,115 |
| Midtown Bay | $5,162,250 | -$3,684,027 |
| Mori | $2,256,800 | -$778,577 |
| North Gaia | $1,296,236 | $181,987 |
| One Bernam | $4,257,053 | -$2,778,830 |
| Orchard Sophia | $2,285,333 | -$807,110 |
| Perfect Ten | $4,759,920 | -$3,281,697 |
| Pinetree Hill | $2,907,531 | -$1,429,308 |
| Royal Hallmark | $1,949,000 | -$470,777 |
| Sceneca Residence | $2,386,814 | -$908,591 |
| Sky Eden@Bedok | $2,318,429 | -$840,206 |
| Tembusu Grand | $2,801,962 | -$1,323,739 |
| Terra Hill | $2,822,679 | -$1,344,456 |
| The Arden | $1,939,591 | -$461,368 |
| The Botany at Dairy Farm | $2,176,019 | -$697,796 |
| The Continuum | $3,102,914 | -$1,624,691 |
| The LakeGarden Residences | $2,262,991 | -$784,768 |
| The Landmark | $3,155,932 | -$1,677,709 |
| The Myst | $2,181,033 | -$702,810 |
| The Reef At King's Dock | $3,060,461 | -$1,582,238 |
| The Shorefront | $1,922,200 | -$443,977 |
| Grand Total | $2,537,247 | -$1,059,024 |
新盘三卧的平均总价约 $2.537 million。即便你在 Queenstown 以 $800,000 卖出一套组屋，要承接这样的价格也相当吃力，更别说一般的 4-room 了。
因此，若执意选择新盘三卧，就必须具备远高于中位数的收入，或已积累可观资产（尤其是用于首付）。
不过，若是新盘 EC，可以考虑 North Gaia、Altura 或 Lumina Grand。这些新 EC 的三卧价格大约在 $1.2 million 左右；但别忘了，新 EC 需重新履行 5 年的 MOP，且要到第 10 年才完全私有化。
此外，购买新 Executive Condominiums 还受 Mortgage Servicing Ratio（MSR）约束。其比率为 30%，不同于 TDSR 的 55%，因此更难获批足额贷款。换言之，领中位收入的家庭需准备更多自有资金，以降低贷款额。
那么 HDB 升级者是否已被私人公寓的价格挡在门外？
总体来看——鉴于升级者越来越只能在 EC 或较便宜的转售房源中选择——我们认为最贴切的答案是：几乎是。
还没有完全被排除，但也差不多了；毕竟对大多数收入处于中位数水平的新加坡人而言，如今新盘基本已不在考虑范围之内。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com，我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。 点击此处阅读英文原文
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