随着 SERS 结束，预期的一个影响是旧 HDB 组屋可能出现一波抛售。少了政府介入的丰厚退出机会，仍想升级置换（或仅仅搬到租期更长地点）的人，或许会很快行动。但对年长的新加坡人而言，这反倒是前所未有的机会：也许现在就能在成熟社区以不再那么高的价格买到一套。针对这类买家，下面简要看看最老的 HDB 组屋主要分布在哪里（以及大致可入手的价格）：
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
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什么算是“老”的 HDB 组屋？
就本文而言，我们把目前房龄在 50 年及以上的单位视为“老屋”（即租期已过半）。这类单位多见于 1960s 至 1970s 第一批建设的 HDB 城镇：Toa Payoh、Queenstown、Bukit Merah、Marine Parade，以及 Central Area。
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG EAST | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $322,095 | $292,273 | $404,574 | $430,071 | $414,719 | $290,951 | $288,321 | $281,225 | $355,993 | $406,175 | $369,369 | $335,355 | $274,467 | |
| 2015 | $307,000 | $278,875 | $396,731 | $407,500 | $417,000 | $271,072 | $260,067 | $274,500 | $259,931 | $353,798 | $407,541 | $370,177 | $312,570 | $262,409 |
| 2016 | $286,435 | $269,126 | $364,129 | $379,000 | $399,299 | $265,405 | $252,838 | $250,000 | $253,550 | $335,963 | $402,551 | $366,712 | $302,803 | $248,838 |
| 2017 | $284,460 | $274,833 | $370,018 | $430,000 | $380,170 | $254,697 | $256,000 | $227,333 | $236,769 | $319,411 | $403,840 | $356,547 | $296,234 | $242,750 |
| 2018 | $265,895 | $262,056 | $337,727 | $417,143 | $382,423 | $247,391 | $232,000 | $225,333 | $215,170 | $309,993 | $393,055 | $331,769 | $265,780 | $224,526 |
| 2019 | $257,020 | $260,667 | $326,112 | $435,071 | $376,957 | $230,730 | $215,667 | $219,000 | $202,134 | $329,942 | $356,487 | $306,495 | $249,405 | $215,876 |
| 2020 | $266,875 | $258,156 | $336,837 | $417,222 | $377,838 | $224,295 | $222,236 | $222,000 | $222,450 | $317,295 | $353,689 | $310,168 | $249,440 | $217,250 |
| 2021 | $296,000 | $276,861 | $358,764 | $419,222 | $384,551 | $261,733 | $268,286 | $253,000 | $258,746 | $346,063 | $380,577 | $343,776 | $284,618 | $256,889 |
| 2022 | $320,954 | $302,579 | $381,478 | $448,286 | $410,000 | $294,697 | $309,464 | $277,235 | $365,981 | $412,677 | $358,563 | $328,395 | $296,000 | |
| 2023 | $347,375 | $334,455 | $402,297 | $468,667 | $404,800 | $309,694 | $319,148 | $325,000 | $292,858 | $362,885 | $439,862 | $378,269 | $344,082 | $304,375 |
| 2024 | $368,828 | $356,141 | $426,912 | $488,111 | $417,294 | $326,821 | $324,167 | $330,000 | $310,201 | $414,054 | $455,177 | $394,025 | $367,953 | $323,625 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $406,800 | $359,155 | $442,499 | $500,000 | $458,818 | $340,387 | $354,924 | $360,000 | $327,717 | $407,982 | $477,247 | $430,872 | $378,953 | $342,523 |
| 从 2014 到 2025 年 6 月的 % 增幅 | 26.30% | 22.88% | 9.37% | 16.26% | 10.63% | 16.99% | 23.10% | 16.53% | 14.60% | 17.50% | 16.65% | 13.00% | 24.80% |
从 1975 年前建造的单位仍持续转售这一点可见，许多较老的 3 房式多集中在 Bedok、Kallang/Whampoa 和 Toa Payoh。它们的平均成交价仍大多略低于 $400,000。
顺带一提，一些最老的 3 房式是由 SIT（HDB 的前身）在 Tiong Bahru 建造的。这类单位面积更大，往往配有两个卫生间、一个阳台以及更宽敞的服务阳台，但在市场上极少出现。
另外需注意，SIT 时代的部分有地项目（仍属 HDB 项目且年代久远）也会被描述为 3 房式。我们将其视为特殊例外，而且挂牌极为稀少。
4 房式组屋
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $404,000 | $375,000 | $478,453 | $600,000 | $476,500 | $441,250 | $370,500 | $444,384 | $543,472 | $579,951 | $467,813 | $318,500 | |
| 2015 | $383,333 | $505,856 | $547,500 | $495,750 | $398,333 | $330,000 | $442,076 | $520,286 | $549,750 | $440,773 | $295,000 | ||
| 2016 | $370,000 | $377,500 | $461,816 | $569,625 | $456,000 | $459,250 | $320,000 | $445,825 | $508,176 | $596,150 | $436,609 | $268,500 | |
| 2017 | $376,963 | $388,000 | $477,495 | $563,333 | $493,333 | $395,750 | $347,500 | $418,520 | $493,577 | $567,217 | $422,536 | $280,000 | |
| 2018 | $375,000 | $368,000 | $407,245 | $572,825 | $508,000 | $395,000 | $329,000 | $420,181 | $507,368 | $508,246 | $413,376 | $244,333 | |
| 2019 | $370,972 | $354,000 | $429,673 | $540,300 | $483,000 | $351,900 | $327,500 | $405,364 | $487,375 | $492,414 | $385,278 | $245,750 | |
| 2020 | $357,667 | $355,000 | $452,324 | $547,515 | $460,000 | $443,229 | $301,667 | $302,000 | $398,750 | $463,510 | $494,144 | $375,956 | $251,000 |
| 2021 | $391,600 | $381,500 | $431,235 | $525,231 | $525,300 | $424,167 | $330,000 | $340,000 | $433,963 | $481,042 | $527,397 | $419,765 | $326,000 |
| 2022 | $421,014 | $402,625 | $473,909 | $580,726 | $471,500 | $430,000 | $395,000 | $471,963 | $521,509 | $548,587 | $460,955 | $348,000 | |
| 2023 | $422,500 | $441,778 | $544,263 | $607,922 | $569,000 | $497,333 | $393,000 | $388,000 | $517,614 | $546,105 | $570,087 | $454,082 | $378,333 |
| 2024 | $456,178 | $432,378 | $491,684 | $602,717 | $525,000 | $501,222 | $450,000 | $513,682 | $539,757 | $558,747 | $506,377 | $371,667 | |
| 2025 (up till June) | $488,000 | $505,033 | $499,125 | $625,000 | $479,333 | $465,000 | $547,813 | $621,598 | $605,161 | $527,333 | $417,000 | ||
| 从 2014 到 2025 年 6 月的 % 增幅 | 20.79% | 34.68% | 4.32% | 4.17% | 8.63% | 25.51% | 23.27% | 14.38% | 4.35% | 12.72% | 30.93% |
从 1975 年前建造单位持续转售的情况看，许多此类房源同样集中在 Bedok、Kallang/Whampoa 与 Toa Payoh。这些城镇至今仍有约 50 年房龄单位的常态化交易；而在较新的组屋区，则不存在此类房源
对于 Marine Parade 或 Bukit Timah 等更知名地段，溢价是意料之中的；部分原因在于该区可替代选择（如公寓）价格更高。若你确实想住在这些地段，老龄转售组屋可能已是能找到的最低门槛
5 房式组屋
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $680,000 | $734,600 | $870,000 | $600,000 | $603,182 | $790,450 | $833,468 | $654,333 | |||||
| 2015 | $642,667 | $748,333 | $851,000 | $490,000 | $586,600 | $786,244 | $890,648 | $573,000 | |||||
| 2016 | $657,500 | $688,000 | $909,167 | $537,500 | $625,091 | $798,870 | $868,333 | $560,000 | |||||
| 2017 | $608,467 | $664,654 | $897,667 | $475,333 | $637,500 | $830,882 | $802,818 | $561,472 | |||||
| 2018 | $606,667 | $515,000 | $697,000 | $875,750 | $573,888 | $448,000 | $615,200 | $814,953 | $749,818 | $630,000 | |||
| 2019 | $620,250 | $473,000 | $707,000 | $845,667 | $569,250 | $771,750 | $761,900 | $530,571 | |||||
| 2020 | $569,500 | $679,167 | $870,000 | $439,000 | $396,000 | $559,778 | $771,020 | $725,000 | $515,000 | ||||
| 2021 | $625,800 | $661,400 | $896,667 | $578,000 | $620,583 | $793,507 | $788,286 | $549,000 | |||||
| 2022 | $625,481 | $849,486 | $926,000 | $565,000 | $632,222 | $844,664 | $806,861 | $633,489 | |||||
| 2023 | $654,000 | $845,600 | $970,000 | $680,000 | $688,300 | $875,318 | $878,350 | $677,750 | |||||
| 2024 | $742,600 | $888,413 | $969,600 | $850,000 | $738,388 | $651,500 | $743,170 | $939,837 | $877,667 | $699,000 | |||
| 2025 (up till June) | $714,463 | $827,667 | $951,963 | $686,500 | $764,555 | $937,636 | $1,013,250 | $749,500 | $620,000 | ||||
| 从 2014 到 2025 年 6 月的 % 增幅 | 5.07% | 12.67% | 9.42% | 14.42% | 26.75% | 18.62% | 21.57% | 14.54% |
同样，最多的交易仍出现在 Bedok、Kallang/Whampoa 与 Toa Payoh.
尽管房龄已高，价格仍不低：即便是在 Kallang/Whampoa 与 Toa Payoh 等交通便捷的中部地区，这些 50 年房龄的单位平均价格也几乎难以维持在 $800,000 以下。至于最受青睐的房源，如 Dawson 的 DBSS 单位或 Pinnacle @ Duxton，更是以突破 $1 million 大关而闻名。
核心要点
若你在寻找老但地段中心的住所，你的搜索大概率会指向 Bedok、Kallang/Whampoa 或 Toa Payoh；这些“资深”的 HDB 城镇至今仍有旧屋的活跃交易，显示出存在意向出售的屋主。
对于 Marine Parade 等知名小区，交易数据表明该区挂牌会较为罕见，因此不宜过度指望能恰好找到心仪房源。
综合以上，你大致需要准备：
- 约 $400,000 的 3 房式
- $500,000 至 $600,000 的 4 房式
- $750,000 – $850,000 的 5 房式
这些单位的剩余租期或许不多，但它们提供了多数人否则难以负担的东西：更大的面积与成熟的生活环境，而且价格低于 $1 million。鉴于我们才刚听闻 SERS 结束的消息，若你能再等等，价格很可能还有进一步回落的空间。
前提是这应是你置业旅程的终点；否则再过十年尝试转售，很可能要承受亏损。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。 点击此处阅读英文原文
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