早在 2018 年，曾有一段颇具争议的时期，政府指出即便楼龄 50 年的组屋仍有可能升值。时至今日约七年过去，环境已然不同：我们见到了最后一次 SERS，VERS 也已在前方浮现，当然，旧 HDB 组屋也只会日益老化。基于此，是否已经有组屋价格开始见顶，甚至转为负增长？若尚未出现，又会在何时？是时候更新一番了，因此我们梳理数据，看看最老一批组屋的价格如何演变——以及它们当中是否真有显现出最终“归零”的迹象：
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
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我们将如何检视旧组屋的数据
为简化分析，我们仅聚焦已跨过 50 年楼龄的组屋。这意味着当前可售的最老存量——大致是 1960 年代末至 1970 年代建成的组屋。也因此，那些没有这么老房龄存量的 HDB 城镇将不会出现在下文中。
在本次分析中，我们追踪了 2014 年至 2025 年年中期间，3 房式、4 房式与 5 房式单位的转售价格。
先看 50 岁以上与以下组屋的大致表现：
我们以 50 年作为进入“老屋”的分界点，因为这大约是 99 年租约的一半。此外，这在市场上也被惯常视为“旧房”（例如，Queenstown 或 Tiong Bahru 等地的组屋到达这个年限时，多数新加坡人就会把它们视为“较老的组屋”。）
为更准确呈现老屋价格，我们重点选取了 1975 年或更早建成的组屋。它们在 2014 年约 40 年楼龄，如今大约 50 年。这样能更清晰地观察老屋随时间的升值轨迹，而不被“较新”单位所稀释。作为对照，我们使用了 1976 年及之后建成的组屋。尽管其中包含了 2014 年后才入市的部分组屋，但剔除它们仅会让总体涨幅小幅下降——累计约 5%。
| 年份 | 目前楼龄 50 年及以上的 HDB | 目前楼龄少于 50 年的 HDB |
| 2014 | $368,418 | $449,353 |
| 2015 | $358,247 | $440,358 |
| 2016 | $353,598 | $444,553 |
| 2017 | $343,620 | $450,635 |
| 2018 | $332,029 | $448,200 |
| 2019 | $316,011 | $439,307 |
| 2020 | $316,056 | $459,919 |
| 2021 | $360,258 | $520,225 |
| 2022 | $382,146 | $559,435 |
| 2023 | $389,353 | $581,537 |
| 2024 | $415,149 | $623,420 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $430,307 | $660,748 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 16.80% | 47.04% |
可以看到，两组房龄都在升值，但差距明显：50 年以上的组屋仅上涨约 16.8%，而 50 年以下则上涨约 47%。这确认了老屋价格仍在上行，且名义价格或总价可能仍高于较新房；只是与年轻房龄相比，其升幅明显放缓。
接着按户型拆分：
3 房式
| 年份 | 目前楼龄 50 年及以上的 HDB | 目前楼龄少于 50 年的 HDB |
| 2014 | $347,562 | $339,303 |
| 2015 | $334,980 | $322,317 |
| 2016 | $323,004 | $322,351 |
| 2017 | $312,844 | $319,074 |
| 2018 | $297,971 | $308,551 |
| 2019 | $285,159 | $302,646 |
| 2020 | $284,448 | $318,733 |
| 2021 | $320,099 | $360,793 |
| 2022 | $343,319 | $398,822 |
| 2023 | $358,832 | $422,000 |
| 2024 | $385,649 | $450,759 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $396,090 | $485,324 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 13.96% | 43.04% |
各城镇中，目前楼龄超过 50 年的 3 房式
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG EAST | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $322,095 | $292,273 | $404,574 | $430,071 | $414,719 | $290,951 | $288,321 | $281,225 | $355,993 | $406,175 | $369,369 | $335,355 | $274,467 | |
| 2015 | $307,000 | $278,875 | $396,731 | $407,500 | $417,000 | $271,072 | $260,067 | $274,500 | $259,931 | $353,798 | $407,541 | $370,177 | $312,570 | $262,409 |
| 2016 | $286,435 | $269,126 | $364,129 | $379,000 | $399,299 | $265,405 | $252,838 | $250,000 | $253,550 | $335,963 | $402,551 | $366,712 | $302,803 | $248,838 |
| 2017 | $284,460 | $274,833 | $370,018 | $430,000 | $380,170 | $254,697 | $256,000 | $227,333 | $236,769 | $319,411 | $403,840 | $356,547 | $296,234 | $242,750 |
| 2018 | $265,895 | $262,056 | $337,727 | $417,143 | $382,423 | $247,391 | $232,000 | $225,333 | $215,170 | $309,993 | $393,055 | $331,769 | $265,780 | $224,526 |
| 2019 | $257,020 | $260,667 | $326,112 | $435,071 | $376,957 | $230,730 | $215,667 | $219,000 | $202,134 | $329,942 | $356,487 | $306,495 | $249,405 | $215,876 |
| 2020 | $266,875 | $258,156 | $336,837 | $417,222 | $377,838 | $224,295 | $222,236 | $222,000 | $222,450 | $317,295 | $353,689 | $310,168 | $249,440 | $217,250 |
| 2021 | $296,000 | $276,861 | $358,764 | $419,222 | $384,551 | $261,733 | $268,286 | $253,000 | $258,746 | $346,063 | $380,577 | $343,776 | $284,618 | $256,889 |
| 2022 | $320,954 | $302,579 | $381,478 | $448,286 | $410,000 | $294,697 | $309,464 | $277,235 | $365,981 | $412,677 | $358,563 | $328,395 | $296,000 | |
| 2023 | $347,375 | $334,455 | $402,297 | $468,667 | $404,800 | $309,694 | $319,148 | $325,000 | $292,858 | $362,885 | $439,862 | $378,269 | $344,082 | $304,375 |
| 2024 | $368,828 | $356,141 | $426,912 | $488,111 | $417,294 | $326,821 | $324,167 | $330,000 | $310,201 | $414,054 | $455,177 | $394,025 | $367,953 | $323,625 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $406,800 | $359,155 | $442,499 | $500,000 | $458,818 | $340,387 | $354,924 | $360,000 | $327,717 | $407,982 | $477,247 | $430,872 | $378,953 | $342,523 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 26.30% | 22.88% | 9.37% | 16.26% | 10.63% | 16.99% | 23.10% | 16.53% | 14.60% | 17.50% | 16.65% | 13.00% | 24.80% |
各城镇中，目前楼龄低于 50 年的 3 房式（仅纳入亦存在 50 年及以上存量的城镇用于对比）
| 行标签 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG EAST | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $334,649 | $384,676 | $395,746 | $422,333 | $448,534 | $353,081 | $329,456 | $321,240 | $316,946 | $373,500 | $420,727 | $428,536 | $345,889 | $300,745 |
| 2015 | $312,639 | $391,579 | $395,607 | $397,600 | $440,883 | $340,909 | $306,680 | $309,192 | $295,096 | $370,575 | $433,083 | $404,009 | $340,374 | $275,814 |
| 2016 | $309,721 | $380,568 | $400,296 | $403,333 | $445,086 | $333,408 | $297,134 | $303,880 | $288,842 | $396,308 | $414,778 | $423,319 | $336,959 | $274,741 |
| 2017 | $308,084 | $388,176 | $424,104 | $403,125 | $432,884 | $337,143 | $294,377 | $293,843 | $279,861 | $356,801 | $409,053 | $439,630 | $369,515 | $268,713 |
| 2018 | $297,547 | $384,714 | $404,835 | $443,750 | $419,517 | $328,751 | $284,205 | $287,219 | $265,375 | $362,682 | $404,528 | $448,947 | $361,779 | $270,687 |
| 2019 | $285,368 | $387,189 | $392,833 | $379,000 | $426,421 | $321,205 | $285,754 | $273,413 | $261,435 | $367,224 | $384,217 | $459,057 | $329,686 | $259,538 |
| 2020 | $290,240 | $376,115 | $411,920 | $376,333 | $414,367 | $328,638 | $305,147 | $287,889 | $285,740 | $357,681 | $386,589 | $479,344 | $330,698 | $268,700 |
| 2021 | $329,443 | $407,695 | $440,177 | $401,000 | $447,578 | $380,945 | $344,834 | $336,034 | $326,821 | $421,771 | $423,268 | $509,173 | $382,414 | $316,197 |
| 2022 | $360,232 | $447,621 | $473,548 | $412,333 | $459,450 | $399,191 | $381,863 | $358,981 | $360,073 | $488,084 | $422,096 | $547,792 | $487,668 | $363,669 |
| 2023 | $382,191 | $482,337 | $549,585 | $459,084 | $478,914 | $423,380 | $404,057 | $373,736 | $369,288 | $485,848 | $460,821 | $555,721 | $519,046 | $383,534 |
| 2024 | $406,391 | $516,042 | $548,480 | $480,000 | $512,719 | $510,405 | $434,396 | $399,423 | $390,591 | $532,741 | $453,684 | $546,820 | $562,457 | $414,308 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $454,966 | $547,311 | $584,720 | $553,925 | $544,580 | $523,708 | $455,038 | $414,522 | $406,584 | $579,269 | $490,909 | $650,626 | $646,350 | $443,726 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 35.95% | 42.28% | 47.75% | 31.16% | 21.41% | 48.33% | 38.12% | 29.04% | 28.28% | 55.09% | 16.68% | 51.83% | 86.87% | 47.54% |
除 Marine Parade 外的其他城镇，较新的 3 房式普遍跑赢了更老的同类。这是因为 Marine Parade 已经很久没有新组屋供应了（若不把即将到来的 Bayshore 区算在内）。这长期为当地组屋提供了价格支撑，即便房龄增长亦然。
4 房式
| 年份 | 目前楼龄 50 年及以上的 HDB | 目前楼龄少于 50 年的 HDB |
| 2014 | $483,291 | $444,148 |
| 2015 | $474,162 | $432,858 |
| 2016 | $477,796 | $433,712 |
| 2017 | $460,986 | $436,714 |
| 2018 | $448,952 | $431,478 |
| 2019 | $430,756 | $429,733 |
| 2020 | $425,312 | $448,959 |
| 2021 | $458,162 | $505,915 |
| 2022 | $491,080 | $549,952 |
| 2023 | $518,276 | $584,859 |
| 2024 | $519,375 | $628,845 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $550,745 | $671,680 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 13.96% | 51.23% |
各城镇中，目前楼龄超过 50 年的 4 房式
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $404,000 | $375,000 | $478,453 | $600,000 | $476,500 | $441,250 | $370,500 | $444,384 | $543,472 | $579,951 | $467,813 | $318,500 | |
| 2015 | $383,333 | $505,856 | $547,500 | $495,750 | $398,333 | $330,000 | $442,076 | $520,286 | $549,750 | $440,773 | $295,000 | ||
| 2016 | $370,000 | $377,500 | $461,816 | $569,625 | $456,000 | $459,250 | $320,000 | $445,825 | $508,176 | $596,150 | $436,609 | $268,500 | |
| 2017 | $376,963 | $388,000 | $477,495 | $563,333 | $493,333 | $395,750 | $347,500 | $418,520 | $493,577 | $567,217 | $422,536 | $280,000 | |
| 2018 | $375,000 | $368,000 | $407,245 | $572,825 | $508,000 | $395,000 | $329,000 | $420,181 | $507,368 | $508,246 | $413,376 | $244,333 | |
| 2019 | $370,972 | $354,000 | $429,673 | $540,300 | $483,000 | $351,900 | $327,500 | $405,364 | $487,375 | $492,414 | $385,278 | $245,750 | |
| 2020 | $357,667 | $355,000 | $452,324 | $547,515 | $460,000 | $443,229 | $301,667 | $302,000 | $398,750 | $463,510 | $494,144 | $375,956 | $251,000 |
| 2021 | $391,600 | $381,500 | $431,235 | $525,231 | $525,300 | $424,167 | $330,000 | $340,000 | $433,963 | $481,042 | $527,397 | $419,765 | $326,000 |
| 2022 | $421,014 | $402,625 | $473,909 | $580,726 | $471,500 | $430,000 | $395,000 | $471,963 | $521,509 | $548,587 | $460,955 | $348,000 | |
| 2023 | $422,500 | $441,778 | $544,263 | $607,922 | $569,000 | $497,333 | $393,000 | $388,000 | $517,614 | $546,105 | $570,087 | $454,082 | $378,333 |
| 2024 | $456,178 | $432,378 | $491,684 | $602,717 | $525,000 | $501,222 | $450,000 | $513,682 | $539,757 | $558,747 | $506,377 | $371,667 | |
| 2025 (up till June) | $488,000 | $505,033 | $499,125 | $625,000 | $479,333 | $465,000 | $547,813 | $621,598 | $605,161 | $527,333 | $417,000 | ||
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 20.79% | 34.68% | 4.32% | 4.17% | 8.63% | 25.51% | 23.27% | 14.38% | 4.35% | 12.72% | 30.93% |
各城镇中，目前楼龄低于 50 年的 4 房式（仅纳入亦存在 50 年及以上存量的城镇用于对比）
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $450,982 | $525,944 | $640,814 | $681,667 | $592,545 | $486,664 | $423,268 | $403,234 | $558,108 | $544,778 | $697,341 | $561,700 | $381,356 |
| 2015 | $431,074 | $536,169 | $638,004 | $681,629 | $804,812 | $504,933 | $400,014 | $384,074 | $578,371 | $558,667 | $684,857 | $536,987 | $360,743 |
| 2016 | $431,567 | $573,409 | $650,470 | $681,699 | $744,673 | $496,734 | $384,396 | $389,364 | $594,856 | $564,091 | $693,112 | $570,896 | $354,992 |
| 2017 | $443,728 | $575,423 | $668,095 | $663,043 | $764,145 | $515,245 | $390,382 | $373,512 | $581,181 | $568,133 | $697,379 | $593,732 | $346,128 |
| 2018 | $432,813 | $565,356 | $661,211 | $674,784 | $764,113 | $522,443 | $385,826 | $361,525 | $572,970 | $554,222 | $716,414 | $608,667 | $334,537 |
| 2019 | $426,753 | $551,593 | $659,977 | $679,648 | $738,745 | $515,100 | $391,344 | $363,052 | $580,327 | $506,654 | $725,455 | $592,005 | $336,232 |
| 2020 | $444,917 | $542,551 | $671,919 | $661,407 | $712,533 | $551,022 | $418,436 | $377,726 | $581,273 | $492,600 | $769,483 | $585,056 | $353,228 |
| 2021 | $488,991 | $581,055 | $718,012 | $675,858 | $879,210 | $592,833 | $464,403 | $436,847 | $666,049 | $527,846 | $786,217 | $641,349 | $413,842 |
| 2022 | $509,679 | $645,608 | $732,255 | $743,290 | $861,411 | $602,209 | $521,329 | $480,906 | $768,484 | $546,164 | $829,347 | $734,078 | $472,334 |
| 2023 | $572,717 | $714,342 | $815,398 | $806,583 | $946,775 | $646,175 | $546,859 | $499,649 | $779,903 | $598,938 | $889,243 | $773,872 | $499,408 |
| 2024 | $597,291 | $751,156 | $868,503 | $859,353 | $980,005 | $783,157 | $593,338 | $520,752 | $874,235 | $651,923 | $925,921 | $857,442 | $536,097 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $657,304 | $796,225 | $904,082 | $907,223 | $1,041,739 | $780,946 | $633,648 | $553,806 | $894,337 | $673,286 | $987,996 | $937,318 | $563,677 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 45.75% | 51.39% | 41.08% | 33.09% | 75.81% | 60.47% | 49.70% | 37.34% | 60.24% | 23.59% | 41.68% | 66.87% | 47.81% |
就 4 房式 HDB 而言，差距非常大。老屋在该期间仅上涨 13.96%，而较新房龄上涨 51.23%。几乎每个城镇都如此：如 Bishan、Toa Payoh 与 Kallang/Whampoa 等地，较新房龄远超同区老存量；而 Bukit Merah 与 Bukit Timah 的旧 4 房式几乎原地踏步。
这表明，尽管 50+ 年的组屋仍在升值，但部分已开始进入平台期。
5 房式
| 年份 | 目前楼龄 50 年及以上的 HDB | 目前楼龄少于 50 年的 HDB |
| 2014 | $741,260 | $533,002 |
| 2015 | $756,923 | $512,545 |
| 2016 | $749,057 | $520,061 |
| 2017 | $719,501 | $529,889 |
| 2018 | $735,024 | $525,032 |
| 2019 | $688,682 | $524,819 |
| 2020 | $640,900 | $540,263 |
| 2021 | $737,141 | $602,226 |
| 2022 | $778,909 | $652,559 |
| 2023 | $810,078 | $684,109 |
| 2024 | $836,305 | $727,522 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $841,963 | $774,065 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 13.59% | 45.23% |
各城镇中，目前楼龄超过 50 年的 5 房式
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $680,000 | $734,600 | $870,000 | $600,000 | $603,182 | $790,450 | $833,468 | $654,333 | |||||
| 2015 | $642,667 | $748,333 | $851,000 | $490,000 | $586,600 | $786,244 | $890,648 | $573,000 | |||||
| 2016 | $657,500 | $688,000 | $909,167 | $537,500 | $625,091 | $798,870 | $868,333 | $560,000 | |||||
| 2017 | $608,467 | $664,654 | $897,667 | $475,333 | $637,500 | $830,882 | $802,818 | $561,472 | |||||
| 2018 | $606,667 | $515,000 | $697,000 | $875,750 | $573,888 | $448,000 | $615,200 | $814,953 | $749,818 | $630,000 | |||
| 2019 | $620,250 | $473,000 | $707,000 | $845,667 | $569,250 | $771,750 | $761,900 | $530,571 | |||||
| 2020 | $569,500 | $679,167 | $870,000 | $439,000 | $396,000 | $559,778 | $771,020 | $725,000 | $515,000 | ||||
| 2021 | $625,800 | $661,400 | $896,667 | $578,000 | $620,583 | $793,507 | $788,286 | $549,000 | |||||
| 2022 | $625,481 | $849,486 | $926,000 | $565,000 | $632,222 | $844,664 | $806,861 | $633,489 | |||||
| 2023 | $654,000 | $845,600 | $970,000 | $680,000 | $688,300 | $875,318 | $878,350 | $677,750 | |||||
| 2024 | $742,600 | $888,413 | $969,600 | $850,000 | $738,388 | $651,500 | $743,170 | $939,837 | $877,667 | $699,000 | |||
| 2025 (up till June) | $714,463 | $827,667 | $951,963 | $686,500 | $764,555 | $937,636 | $1,013,250 | $749,500 | $620,000 | ||||
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 5.07% | 12.67% | 9.42% | 14.42% | 26.75% | 18.62% | 21.57% | 14.54% |
各城镇中，目前楼龄低于 50 年的 5 房式（仅纳入亦存在 50 年及以上存量的城镇用于对比）
| 年份 | BEDOK | BISHAN | BUKIT MERAH | BUKIT TIMAH | CENTRAL AREA | GEYLANG | HOUGANG | JURONG WEST | KALLANG/WHAMPOA | MARINE PARADE | QUEENSTOWN | TOA PAYOH | WOODLANDS |
| 2014 | $490,629 | $584,327 | $689,849 | $744,500 | $595,606 | $540,150 | $454,964 | $434,972 | $605,149 | $658,719 | $736,035 | $598,253 | $406,685 |
| 2015 | $474,324 | $591,316 | $686,518 | $737,565 | $843,888 | $542,426 | $432,293 | $417,110 | $622,595 | $690,663 | $731,965 | $594,701 | $389,030 |
| 2016 | $476,066 | $635,725 | $690,200 | $708,112 | $799,168 | $546,202 | $418,966 | $422,056 | $667,091 | $655,250 | $737,811 | $619,769 | $388,270 |
| 2017 | $489,297 | $667,890 | $701,822 | $702,953 | $816,956 | $564,060 | $429,495 | $408,628 | $648,234 | $658,182 | $738,946 | $683,478 | $375,106 |
| 2018 | $489,448 | $646,614 | $705,929 | $733,444 | $817,758 | $576,283 | $426,091 | $395,669 | $639,955 | $682,721 | $757,428 | $700,290 | $360,706 |
| 2019 | $475,958 | $629,300 | $704,825 | $736,380 | $783,893 | $558,193 | $429,163 | $399,642 | $641,870 | $658,432 | $760,688 | $665,495 | $363,660 |
| 2020 | $487,021 | $627,507 | $710,589 | $743,947 | $783,634 | $582,015 | $468,998 | $418,877 | $643,507 | $620,480 | $792,993 | $649,323 | $384,483 |
| 2021 | $536,622 | $666,637 | $754,020 | $751,915 | $926,322 | $621,813 | $513,702 | $471,130 | $710,894 | $705,815 | $818,707 | $714,326 | $448,362 |
| 2022 | $565,413 | $739,643 | $786,535 | $796,794 | $930,533 | $653,007 | $557,487 | $519,446 | $787,113 | $682,586 | $859,687 | $783,478 | $509,598 |
| 2023 | $616,049 | $785,054 | $850,206 | $921,495 | $997,932 | $679,736 | $587,484 | $540,182 | $811,586 | $722,714 | $904,906 | $827,445 | $536,103 |
| 2024 | $657,080 | $843,976 | $906,584 | $992,253 | $1,052,921 | $798,625 | $637,114 | $559,442 | $893,529 | $766,900 | $953,421 | $909,853 | $579,731 |
| 2025 (up till June) | $692,029 | $895,157 | $946,357 | $1,020,599 | $1,103,761 | $791,135 | $674,876 | $591,822 | $914,504 | $862,422 | $1,029,216 | $983,737 | $605,356 |
| % increase from 2014 to June 2025 | 41.05% | 53.19% | 37.18% | 37.09% | 85.32% | 46.47% | 48.34% | 36.06% | 51.12% | 30.92% | 39.83% | 64.43% | 48.85% |
5 房式也呈现相同规律，较新房龄的涨幅显著更好。在那些旧 5 房式已跨越 $900,000 至 $1 million 的城镇（如 Queenstown 或 Kallang/Whampoa），其百分比涨幅自然更显温和；这些组屋本就价格高企，进一步上涨的空间有限。
相较之下，较新的 5 房式涨势亮眼，其中 Central Area（+85%）、Toa Payoh（+64%）与 Bishan（+53%）尤为突出。当然，对新加坡人而言，这些热点能有如此强劲表现并不意外。
可以确定的是，即便 50+ 年楼龄，尚未出现价格崩塌
逐城镇的数据体现了韧性，而更宏观的全岛视角使差异更为清晰。当我们把组屋分成两类——已超过 50 年与仍低于 50 年——分化一目了然。
从 2014 年至 2025 年年中，50 年以上的组屋上涨约 16.8%。相比之下，50 年以下的在同一时期上涨约 47%。绝对值上，老屋从 2014 年的约 $368,000 升至 2025 年的约 $430,000；年轻组从约 $449,000 跃升至约 $661,000。
这并非老屋价格的断崖式下跌，但确实印证了升值在放缓。楼龄越老，涨幅越趋温和。这在 3、4、5 房式中一以贯之。
简言之，我们尚未进入因租约折旧而出现平均下跌的阶段。
这似乎与我们常用于土地定价的 Bala 曲线相悖
若你关注过我们此前关于租约折旧的文章，会知道我们常引用 Bala 曲线——估值师为租赁产权资产定价的标准模型。
理论上，一旦物业跨过约 60 年，折旧应显著加速。当你看到 50 至 60 年楼龄的组屋时，曲线显示其价值应快速趋缓：
（按土地价值的百分比计；因此若地价上行，名义价值的上升可能掩盖折旧——可参照私宅市场的地价走势）
然而现实数据并未呈现这种崩塌。为什么？
原因可能有四点。其一，真实市场需求强于理论。买卖转售组屋的人并不会翻出 Bala 曲线据此报盘——他们更看重的，是总价与位置。
受配套与面积影响，一套楼龄 50 年、位于 Queenstown、总价 $900,000 的组屋，和一套位置更差、面积更小、总价 $1.8 million 的新推公寓相比，仍显“划算”。这比任何理论化的租赁定价模型都更具说服力。
第二点更偏短期：我们或仍在经历 2020 至 2023 年 COVID 及其后遗影响的强力扭曲。这段时期激发了转售需求并推高价格，连最老的组屋也被抬升；这可能暂时延缓了曲线所预测的下行。
第三个因素是新加坡的人口老龄化。按联合国标准，我们将在 2026 年迈入超高龄社会。年长的新加坡人并不需要很长的剩余租约；若他们从公寓甚至有地住宅换屋而来，则往往也有能力负担哪怕是“百万组屋”的老屋。
由于不追求转售获利、出租回报或其他收益导向的结果，许多年长买家愿意为老屋买单（或说“溢价”）——前提是位置优越，或能维持他们习惯的宽敞尺度。这为优质地段的 50+ 年老屋提供了坚实支撑。
第四个原因是地价并非静态。Bala 曲线建立在土地价值之上，随着商场、地铁站等配套落地，地价会上升，这种上升可能会掩盖部分实际折旧。换言之，土地价值的上扬抵消了地上物业的自然贬值。这对私宅的租赁产权与 HDB 组屋皆然。
在最老的城镇里，优质组屋的价格基数依然很高
别被误解：50+ 年老屋涨幅不均，并不意味着它们“不受欢迎”。主要是因为其价格基数本就高。
以 Bedok 的 5 房式为例，2014 年已在 $680,000 左右。到 2025 年年中约升至 $714,000——账面仅 5% 涨幅，但依然是六位数的绝对增量。对比 Kallang/Whampoa 的 5 房式：起步更低，约 $603,000，期末约 $764,000——看似更亮眼的 +27%，但从量级上相去并不太远。
关键在于：考虑租约折旧后，这样的高价格基数仍相当不易。这说明，只要地段到位，买家仍愿意为 50 年以上楼龄的组屋支付约 $750,000+ 的价格。
且不仅是“抗跌”，部分高价区在高基数下仍有超预期表现。Queenstown 的 5 房式，2014 年已接近 $790,000，如今升至约 $938,000——在高起点下仍实现约 +22% 的可观涨幅。
因此，不要被较低的百分比涨幅所误导，比如 Bukit Merah、Bukit Timah 与 Queenstown 约 4% 的增幅。这些区域尽管存在租约折旧，组屋价格依旧高企。
顺带一提，户型偏好在同一城镇内也会带来很大差异
当我们将老屋与新屋按户型直接对比时，同样能看到“仍在上涨，但更慢”的模式。
- 3 房式：50 年以上的涨幅自 2014 年来略低于 14%，而较新房龄上涨 43%。几乎所有城镇都符合这一趋势，Marine Parade 是少见的例外，当地更老的 3 房式支撑力更强。
- 4 房式：老屋平均仅上涨约 14%，较新房龄则超过 51%。这一差距在各城镇普遍存在，Bishan 与 Kallang/Whampoa 等地尤为显著。
- 5 房式：即便在 Queenstown、Kallang/Whampoa 等强势城镇，老 5 房式跨越 $900,000 至 $1 million，但整体涨幅也就约 13.6%。而较新的 5 房式，全岛涨幅超过 45%。
因此，虽然老屋在总价层面仍在上行（有时即便 50 年楼龄也能卖到 $700,000 至 $1 million），但其涨速已难与较新存量同日而语。
结论
总而言之，最新数据使差异更为清晰。老屋价格仍在上涨，但其涨速持续落后于年轻房龄。
2014 至 2025 年年中，50 年以上的组屋仅上涨近 17%，而较新房龄接近 47%。这与理论预期相符：租约折旧未必导致陡然崩塌，但确实会“踩刹车”。
位置与面积仍在保护老屋免于名义亏损；许多即便 50 年楼龄，仍能卖到 $700,000 至 $1 million。但时间拉长后，差距将继续扩大：几乎在每个城镇、每类户型上，年轻存量都在领跑。
那一天终将到来——当组屋的价值走向归零
租赁时钟真实存在，而向 VERS 过渡正提醒着我们这一点。但通往“归零”的路径并非标题党或社媒评论常描绘的悬崖式坠落。更像是逐步的平台化与趋缓，不同城镇与户型的节奏大不相同。
更广而言，人口结构也许会缓冲冲击。新加坡正在快速老龄化；当社会迈入超高龄阶段，较少买家会需要（甚至想要）完整的 99 年租约。组屋愈来愈老，而住户亦然——相较于租约，我们似乎更快地在消耗岁月。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。 点击此处阅读英文原文
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