Would You Pay $700k For The First BTO Flats At Pearl’s Hill After 40 Years?

The announcement of 6,000 new homes at Pearl’s Hill, including – gasp – NEW HDB FLATS! has caused quite the stir of late. This is the heart of Chinatown, just a few minutes down the road (or a few stops by train) to the CBD. It’s also the first time in 40 years that new flats have appeared here. This is definitely one of the highlights of the Master Plan 2025, so we asked several realtors, investors, and home buyers for insights and opinions. Is this something worth putting your plans on hold for?

What do we know about Pearl’s Hill changes?

Some of the following have been mentioned in news reports or by URA:

• A car-lite district, which is surprising given the location. Traffic is usually quite heavy in the Chinatown area, so we suspect some existing changes to roads will be made. Hopefully, there will be no major road closures, as the area is quite congested as is. 
• A mixed-use development connected to Outram Park MRT. This is probably a condo. We’ve got some interesting comments on this below. 
• Repurposing of the old police commander’s bungalow and police barracks. The barracks are spacious enough to be used for community events, although we haven’t heard much about the police commander’s bungalow. Both of these structures are pre-war, and are conserved buildings. 
• Upgrades to Pearl’s Hill City Park. There hasn’t been much detail on this yet, but it is timely. This park is currently a rare patch of greenery and tranquility in the Chinatown area, but it is coming along in years. 

The 6,000 homes will be a mix of private as well as HDB properties, although specifics are not yet out. The flats here are almost definitely going to be classed as Prime flats; and assuming the existing pattern is followed, this will mean the largest possible HDB units are 4-room. 

Analysts are predicting $700,000 BTO flats for the Pearl’s Hill area

According to news reports, analysts are predicting prices to reach up to $700,000 for the 4-room flats in Pearl’s Hill. This would be the upper end of the price range for Prime flats to date, but this seems justified given the location, and the fact that it’s the first BTO launch in some 40 years.

We think what will be interesting to watch, however, is not so much the Prime housing prices; these are fairly predictable. Rather, we would look at the prices of surrounding resale flats, which are close to the Pearl’s Hill area:

We’re certain that developments in Pearl’s Hill will drive interest in these flats, as they’re free of Prime restrictions (e.g., they will have no eligibility requirements like an income ceiling, and they will have only a five-year MOP.) 

Buyers who are older – and don’t care so much about the lease decay – as well as those who fail the ballot may turn to these resale options. If so, the price movements here could provide good insights into how Prime housing impacts surrounding resale prices. 

On a secondary note, it will be interesting to see whether the very old flats, such as the ones dating back to the ‘70s, can still see appreciation (and to what extent.) 

One realtor felt that the introduction of the Pearl’s Hill flats – even under the Prime scheme – could moderate prices of nearby flats over the long term:

“There’s no competition for the resale flats that have been here since the ‘70s, or for projects like Pinnacle. So buyers who need to live here have no choice, they need to cave to the prices that the sellers want, so you see a lot of million-dollar flats here. But by increasing the supply with BTO flats, it can siphon demand from the resale flats here over the long term.”

One reader, who is a property investor, also had an opinion: she said that when the Pearl’s Hill Prime flats join the resale market in the future, it could “crush” the prices of the oldest flats nearby:

“If we wait it out, these newer flats will eventually enter the resale market in just over 10 years*. Those flats from the 1970s will be how old already by then? At that point more people will go for the newer Prime project, even if it has a 10-year MOP; and the older flats in the surrounding area may not sustain million-dollar prices. That’s why I think people shouldn’t jump to the conclusion that the older surrounding flats are better.”

*Remember the MOP for Prime flats is 10 years, not five. It’s just over 10 years to account for construction time.

We also noticed analyst predictions of $2,700 to even over $3,000 psf (for premium units) for the condos here.

This seems consistent with projects like One Pearl Bank, which currently averages about $2,748 psf, and has just recently sold out. Most realtors we spoke to said that, if there’s a mixed-use condo attached to Outram Park MRT, the prices would probably be on the upper end of the scale; this would be a norm for integrated developments, which tend to be pricier.

Interestingly, this is also where some opinions diverged. One realtor noted that One Pearl Bank suffered slow sales at first, on account of the pricing (we also mentioned this in our review.) As mentioned, One Pearl Bank’s price range is close to the estimates for new condos here. The same realtor expressed uncertainty about whether the price range has become more palatable, given the higher interest rate environment. 

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Another realtor said a mixed-use condo near Outram MRT (which is also just minutes away from One Pearl Bank) would trade privacy for convenience. He noted the area is very near Singapore General Hospital, which is one of the busiest healthcare institutions in the country. Apart from taboos (some consider it inauspicious to live across from a big hospital), there are practical concerns over issues like ambulance sirens in the night, and traffic congestion.

One reader, who has lived in Chinatown for the past three years, opined that a project attached to Outram MRT might not be for families. She noted there would only be two schools within a one-kilometre enrolment distance (Cantonment Primary and Outram Secondary). 

This matters as HDB upgraders are the largest buyer demographic, and upgraders are almost always families; so this could limit the prospective buyer pool, even if the price doesn’t.

Ultimately though, most realtors felt otherwise and said pent-up demand would make a project at Outram MRT a likely success. On our end, we also wonder if being close to the hospital also has its share of advantages. Hospitals tend to employ a lot of foreign workers, and being next to SGH could be considered an ideal catchment area by landlords.

(But given the heightened ABSD rates, rising mortgage interest, and volatile economy it’s anyone’s guess how the rental market will fare in the next few years.)

As for other condo projects in Pearl’s Hill, it’s a bit too early to say. We do think that the area’s plans to become a car-lite district will appeal to families, but given how busy Chinatown seems, some drastic changes may be required.