Over the past few weeks, we’ve been examining the effects of lease decay across HDB estates. We found that the pattern of price movements are not uniform – ageing flats can retain value for far longer in some HDB towns, and they’re not always the ones you expect.
For example, we’ve seen that in the Central Area, price premiums for flats in the Central Area eroded at a more noticeable pace, whereas the prices of older flats in Jurong East proved more resilient.
This week, we turn our attention to Woodlands. We’ll examine the effects of lease decay of three- to five-room flats in this northern region, since they’re the ones that meet our minimum thresholds for analysis. Here’s what we found.
Our Methodology
We analyse HDB resale transactions by town and flat type. Transactions are grouped into lease bands (e.g. 90–99, 80–89, etc.) that show remaining leases.
Lease bands are based on how many years are left at the time of sale, so flats move between bands as they age. We do this to ensure we’re not tracking the same flats over time; what we want to see is how buyers price flats at each lease stage in each period.
This shows how the resale market values flats based on remaining leases in general, not how it values certain specific flats over time.
Prices are then determined by dividing the median price of each lease band by the overall median for that town and flat size. This creates an index where 1.00 represents the typical price level. Values above 1.00 mean the flat is priced above the town’s average for that flat type, while values below 1.00 mean it is priced below the average.
For more details on our methodology, read the linked article here.
Past performance is a useful signal, but it's not a forecast. The projects that outperformed over the last cycle aren't guaranteed to do so again, and the reasons they outperformed may no longer apply.
The more useful question is whether a particular property still makes sense at today's price, given your budget, objectives and timeline. That's where many buyers find it helpful to get a second opinion.
Over time, that's also why we decided to work with agents who shared the same data-driven and advisory-led approach behind our editorial, consultants who could help readers think through decisions more objectively, rather than simply push transactions.
Today, the team has worked with more than 2,000 clients across over $5B in property transactions.
The effects of lease decay in Woodlands
| Flat type | Severity (2014-2019) | Severity (2020-2025) | Behaviour type |
| 3-room | 8% | 20% | Moderate |
| 4-room | 9% | 16% | Gradual |
| 5-room | 6% | 4% | Gradual |
3-room flats
| Remaining lease band (past inflection point) | 2014 – 2019 index | Drop in index | 2020 – 2025 index | Drop in index |
| 40–49 | – | – | 67 | 33% |
| 50–59 | 86 | 14% | 76 | 24% |
| 60–69 | 92 | 8% | 85 | 15% |
| 70–79 | 102 | -2% | 89 | 11% |
4-room flats
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