While some HDB resale buyers are transfixed by million-dollar deals and record-breaking prices, there's another way to monitor how resale prices in the HDB market have moved over the past five years.
Transaction prices for the lower-percentile resale flats may offer a more accurate glimpse at the price trajectory of the public housing market.
For example, it wasn't difficult finding a four-room resale flat listed for under $500,000 about five years ago. Between Sept 2020 and Sept 2021, just over two-thirds of four-room flat transactions (8,161 flats sold against a total sales volume of 12,176 flats) changed hands below that price threshold.
Fast forward to the 12 months from Sept 2025 to Sept 2026, and only 730 out of 10,814 resale four-room transactions were below $500,000. That works out to approximately 7% of resale four-room sales.
Likewise, the median resale price of four-room flats has climbed from $458,000 in Sept 2021 to about $630,000 last month.
So, while there have been plenty of headlines about million-dollar HDB flats and record resale prices, we thought it would be interesting to look at the other end of the market. Where can you still find a four-room flat for under $500,000 today, and what are you actually getting for that price?
Until recently, most four-room resale flats still sold below $500K
Between 2015 and 2020, around 79% and 82% of four-room resale transactions each year were below $500,000. Over those five years, the median resale price barely changed, going from $405,000 to $410,000.
After that, the price increase notably picked up pace. The proportion of four-room resales that fetched less than $500,000 fell to 67% in the 12 months to September 2021, then 48% a year later. The proportion of these sales fell to 30% in 2023, 17% in 2024, and just 5% in 2025.
However, our analysis shows that the price increase has largely halted this year. In the latest 12 months, the proportion of four-room resales that have changed hands for less than $500,000 has hovered between 5.4% and 6.8% of monthly four-room transactions.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that four-room resale prices are coming down. But it could suggest that prices at the lower end of this segment of the resale HDB market may be starting to stabilise.
The affordable ones are nearly all older flats, and the price increase has moderated
To understand what’s happening with resale prices in the four-room segment, we compared four-room resale flats based on their remaining leases, examining how their median prices have changed over the past five years.
Based on transactions lodged in the 12 months to September 2021, the data indicates that the remaining lease of a flat had a negligible impact on its price growth.
A four-room flat with under 55 years left on its land lease fetched a median price of $430,000, while another four-room flat with 85 or more years left on its lease recorded a median price of $497,500. That is a price gap of about 16%.
When we consider recent four-room sales data, the median prices are $538,888 for a four-room flat with under 55 years left on its land lease, and $700,888 for a four-room flat with 85 or more years left on its lease. This works out to a price gap of approximately 30%.
We reckon that this indicates that some buyers are more sensitive to the remaining lease of a flat compared to other buyers five years ago.
Over the past year, prices of older flats have also started to stabilise. For four-room flats with 55 to 64 years of lease remaining, the median resale price dipped slightly from $563,444 in the 12 months to September 2025 to $560,000 in the latest 12 months.
In comparison, flats with 75 to 84 years of lease remaining saw their median price rise from $616,388 to $683,500 over the same period.
This suggests that while prices of newer flats have continued to rise, older flats have not seen the same growth. That may also help explain why we’ve seen a slight increase in the number of four-room flats selling below $500,000.
What are the attributes of a sub-$500K four-room resale flat
We compared 730 flats sold below $500,000 with all four-room resale transactions over the same period to see if there are any underlying differences.
| 4-room flats sold under $500K | All 4-room resale flats | |
|---|---|---|
| Median price | $475,000 | About $630,000 |
| Median years of lease left | 59 | 74 |
| Median year the lease began | 1986 | 2001 |
| Median size | 90 sq m (about 969 sq ft) | 93 sq m |
| Median floor | Storey 4 | Storey 7 |
| Median price psf | $489 | $614 |
The most interesting result is that these cheaper flats aren’t that much smaller. At a median size of 90 sq m, they’re only 3 sq m smaller than the typical 4-room resale flat, despite costing around $155,000 less.
Their age is the most significant factor. In the four-room resale HDB market, the median remaining lease is 59 years, compared to 74 years for the wider HDB resale market. They’re also more likely to be lower-floor units.
Where you can still find these types of flats, and where they have disappeared
Among the 25 towns with at least 30 four-room resale transactions in the past year, these are the ones where sub-$500K flats still make up a meaningful share of sales:
| Town | Share under $500K, 12 months to Sep 2026 | Five years earlier | Median 4-room price now | Cheapest recent sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yishun | 20% | 95% | $550,000 | $420,000 (Yishun St 22, 58 years left) |
| Jurong West | 20% | 88% | $535,000 | $430,000 (Jurong West St 41, 59 years left) |
| Jurong East | 20% | 80% | $548,000 | $420,000 (Jurong East St 24, 56 years left) |
| Woodlands | 15% | 96% | $550,000 | $385,000 (Marsiling Drive, 47 years left) |
| Bukit Batok | 12% | 92% | $630,000 | $410,000 (Bukit Batok St 33, 58 years left) |
| Bukit Panjang | 12% | 88% | $570,000 | $428,000 (Petir Road, 60 years left) |
| Bedok | 10% | 61% | $593,000 | $418,000 (New Upper Changi Road, 50 years left) |
| Choa Chu Kang | 9% | 92% | $555,000 | $428,000 (Teck Whye Lane, 51 years left) |
Across the other 17 towns, fewer than 10% of four-room resale transactions were below $500,000, with some towns recording none at all.
The change is particularly noticeable in Sengkang, Tampines, Pasir Ris and Punggol. Five years ago, 78% of four-room resale flats in Sengkang sold for under $500,000, followed by 73% in Tampines, 68% in Pasir Ris, and 59% in Punggol. However, over the last 12 months, not a single four-room resale flat in these four towns changed hands below that price.
Even in Sembawang and Hougang, where 98% and 78% of transactions there five years ago were below $500,000, that share has fallen to just 2% today.
The towns with the most sub-$500,000 transactions tend to have a larger supply of older four-room flats. In newer towns like Sengkang and Punggol, where most flats still have relatively long leases remaining, there are fewer opportunities to buy at this price.
For example, even the cheapest four-room resale flat sold in Sengkang over the past year, which had 76 years of lease remaining, went for just over $500,000.
The cheapest four-room flats sold in the past year
The lowest prices all come from a handful of HDB developments from the 1970s.
| Price | Where | Flat | Lease left at sale |
|---|---|---|---|
| $385,000 to $400,000 | Blocks 5, 7 and 8 Marsiling Drive, Woodlands | Improved, 88 to 90 sq m, leases from 1974 to 1976 | 47 to 49 years |
| $390,000 and $400,000 | Block 15 Hougang Avenue 3 | Improved, 82 sq m, lease from 1975 | 48 years |
| $405,000 | Block 25 Marsiling Drive, Woodlands | New Generation, 91 sq m, lease from 1977 | 50 years |
We excluded two transactions from these lists, including a flat at Woodlands Avenue 4 that sold for $318,000. Both were priced at less than 75% of what comparable flats in the same block had sold for, suggesting that these may not have been typical open-market transactions.
$500K is now the budget for a typical three-room flat
For comparison, around seven in ten three-room resale flats still sell for less than $500,000 today. The situation is quite different for five-room flats. Five years ago, almost three in ten sold below that price, but over the latest 12 months, there were no such transactions.
That makes the comparison between an older four-room flat and a typical three-room flat an interesting one:
| Typical 3-room resale | Typical 4-room under $500K | |
|---|---|---|
| Median price | $440,000 | $475,000 |
| Median size | About 721 sq ft | About 969 sq ft |
| Median price psf | $593 | $489 |
| Median years of lease left | 57 | 59 |
For buyers considering an older three-room resale flat, it may be worth looking at four-room options as well. Based on median prices, a sub-$500,000 four-room flat costs about $35,000 more than a typical three-room resale flat, but offers around 250 sq ft of additional space.
The remaining leases are also comparable, with three-room resale flats having a median of 57 years left. So depending on the location, buyers may be able to get more space without having to stretch their budget too much further.
What should buyers know about the negative impact of lease decay?
While these older four-room flats may be cheaper, the declining land lease is something buyers need to consider carefully, particularly when it comes to financing.
To use your CPF savings in full, the remaining lease must cover the youngest buyer until the age of 95. Otherwise, the amount you can use will be pro-rated. There must also be at least 20 years of lease remaining for CPF to be used at all.
For example, if a flat has 59 years of lease remaining, the youngest buyer would need to be at least 36 to use CPF in full. For the Marsiling Drive flats with just 47 years left, that age rises to 48.
Younger buyers can still purchase these flats, but they may need to set aside more cash. CPF provides an example of two 25-year-old buyers purchasing a flat with 65 years of lease remaining, who would only be able to use CPF for up to 90 per cent of the purchase price.
There is also the question of resale value. As we’ve seen from the earlier data, older flats have generally experienced slower price growth than those with longer leases. For buyers planning to sell after another 10 years, the remaining lease will be even shorter by then, which could affect both demand and the financing options available to future buyers.
That said, eligible first-timer families purchasing a resale flat of 4 rooms or smaller can receive an $80,000 CPF Housing Grant, potentially supplemented by the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant and Proximity Housing Grant.
Ultimately, whether one of these sub-$500,000 flats makes sense depends quite a bit on the buyer’s circumstances. Someone in their 50s looking for a home to stay in for the next 20 or 30 years may have fewer concerns about the remaining lease than a younger couple planning to upgrade in the future.
And given how much four-room resale prices have risen over the past five years, these older flats may still be worth considering for buyers who need the extra space but don’t want to take on a much larger mortgage.
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