The final quarter of 2026 also heralds the last Build-To-Order (BTO) sales exercise of the year. It will be the largest offering of BTO flats this year, with 7,970 flats across seven projects.
Originally scheduled for October, the November BTO sales exercise was delayed by a month in view of a series of policy changes that affect aspiring BTO buyers, including young families and singles.
The approximately one-month delay, coupled with the favourable policy changes, has already caused some analysts to predict a high number of applicants for the upcoming exercise.
In August, the government raised the monthly household income ceiling for families buying a BTO flat to $16,000, while the income ceiling for singles was raised to $8,000. The upward revision in the income ceiling could lead some BTO applicants to eye larger or pricier BTO flats, such as those in Prime and Plus developments.
Some market analysts noted that middle-income families and slightly higher-income couples with no kids (DINKs) are likely to benefit from the policy changes.
In addition, the location of three highly desirable BTO projects is generating a lot of excitement and anticipation among aspiring BTO homeowners. The standout developments are two sites in Bayshore and a project in Caldecott.
| Project | Est. Flat Count | Flat Types |
| Bedok (Bayshore Project 1) | 860 | 2-room Flexi, 4-room |
| Bedok (Bayshore Project 2) | 1,640 | 2-room Flexi, 3-room, 4-room |
| Toa Payoh (Caldecott) | 1,430 | Community Care Apartments, 2-room Flexi, 4-room |
Let's pit the emerging new precinct at Bayshore against Caldecott's proximity to the established Toa Payoh West neighbourhood
When we examine all three sites, the two Bayshore developments are in a developing precinct near East Coast Park. Meanwhile, the centrality of the Caldecott project suits those who prefer convenient public transport accessibility.
Taking a step back to consider the overarching development plans for the Bayshore precinct, we know that this new waterfront neighbourhood has been planned to accommodate at least 10,000 new public and private homes.
This includes the 515-unit Vela Bay, which launched for sale in April this year, as well as an upcoming integrated project that will be connected to Bedok South MRT station on the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL).
Vela Bay already set benchmark prices when it sold 72% of its units during its initial sales weekend, setting an average price of $2,886 psf. Meanwhile, Frasers Property-led joint venture with Sunway MCL, Sekisui House and Lum Chang Holdings submitted the top bid of $2.128 billion at $1,323 psf ppr for the Bayshore Drive GLS site, the largest bid recorded for a GLS plot outside Singapore's CBD.
Development plans for Bayshore are ongoing, and a highlight for the location is its proximity to Bayshore MRT station on the TEL and the upcoming integrated development, which will also feature a transport hub.
Future amenities will include a central park, school, walking and cycling routes, and a bus-only corridor. The existing advantage is, of course, its proximity to East Coast Park.
Two BTO projects have also been launched: the 710-unit Bayshore Palms and the 734-unit Bayshore Vista, which were both featured in the October 2024 BTO sales exercise.
On the other hand, we will also see the first BTO project in Caldecott. It marks a significant step towards the development of this new estate in Toa Payoh West, and the first expansion of the Toa Payoh area in decades.
The upcoming Caldecott BTO project will be integrated with several neighbourhood amenities, such as a food court, a supermarket, a childcare centre, and shops. The development will also front a new 1.1 ha neighbourhood park.
Located next to Caldecott MRT Interchange, which connects the Circle Line (CCL) and TEL, the area boasts excellent connectivity to public transport networks and major roads. Its proximity to Toa Payoh does mean that residents will benefit from the food centres, shops, healthcare and community facilities there.
Comprising about 1,430 flats across five blocks, the Caldecott BTO project includes 590 two-room Flexi flats and 580 four-room flats, as well as about 230 public rental flats. It is also the first Toa Payoh project that includes 260 Community Care Apartments (CCAs) for senior residents aged 55 and above.
| Factor | Bayshore Walk | Bayshore Drive | Toa Payoh West |
| Indicative supply | 860 flats | 1,640 flats | About 1,430 flats |
| Flat types previewed | 2-room Flexi, 4-room | 2-room Flexi, 3-room, 4-room | 2-room Flexi, 4-room, Community Care Apartments |
| Nearest MRT | Bayshore MRT (TEL) | Caldecott MRT (CCL and TEL interchange) | |
| Indicative walking time | Around 1 to 5 minutes | Around 2 to 5 minutes | |
| Town maturity | Developing precinct in the wider mature Bedok estate | Mature Toa Payoh estate, with a new housing precinct | |
| Lifestyle | Waterfront living, East Coast Park, cycling and outdoor recreation Same, with a larger new housing community | Established amenities, central connectivity, schools and healthcare | |
| Expected housing classification | Plus is expected; unconfirmed Plus is expected; unconfirmed | Prime is expected; unconfirmed | |
| Nearby schools | Temasek Primary and Secondary Schools. | Marymount Convent, CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh), Kheng Cheng and other Toa Payoh schools | |
| Future development | New parks, school, transit-priority corridor and integrated transport/retail hub New SAFRA clubhouse | Neighbourhood park, mixed-use development and wider Toa Payoh West/Mount Pleasant housing | |
While we wait for the official launch of the November BTO projects, the two Bayshore developments might turn out to be in the Plus category, while the Caldecott project could be in the Prime category.
If that is the case, it would mean a 10-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) and a subsidy clawback upon sale. The amount will be made known when Plus or Prime projects are launched for sale.
Competition based on past BTO application rates
Bedok
If we reference the application rates of the last Bedok BTO project in this area - the 734-unit Bayshore Vista and 710-unit Bayshore Palms - the two-room units were heavily oversubscribed, with 3,158 applications for 476 units. The highest application rate of 18.3 came from singles, followed by 3.4 from seniors, then 0.9 from second-timer families.
The three-room units saw 335 applications for 80 units, with 53.0 from second-timer families compared to 1.6 from first-timer families.
The four-room flats were similarly oversubscribed as well, with 4,798 applications submitted for 1,236 units. The bulk of applications came from second-timer families at 29.7, followed by first-timer families at 2.5.
Singles can apply for new two-room Flexi flats across Standard, Plus and Prime projects in all locations. The latest change to affect single applicants is the income ceiling increase from $7,000 to $8,000. Eligible singles can also tap into priority access under the Family Care Scheme if applying to live with or near their parents.
At launch, the selling price (excluding grants) for two-room flexi units was from $190,000, while the three-room units started from $369,000.
Toa Payoh West
Over in Caldecott / Toa Payoh West, the application rates of recent Toa Payoh projects suggest that the demand for four-room flats is significantly higher compared to two-room flexi units. This is expected since the largest buyer profiles will be families looking for new homes in a central and mature area that also benefits from proximity to schools.
The upcoming Caldecott project is close to several schools, such as Marymount Convent School, CHIJ Toa Payoh Primary and Secondary Schools, as well as Raffles Girls' School (Secondary).
When we examine the most recent BTO project, Toa Payoh Ascent - a 741-unit Prime development that was launched during the July 2025 BTO sales exercise - garnered 3,973 applications competing for 468 four-room units.
Meanwhile, Mount Pleasant Crest, also a Prime development, saw 3,208 applications for 709 units. The 1,348-unit BTO project was launched during the October 2025 BTO sales exercise.
In general, most four-room flat applications for both projects came from second-timer families.
The two-room application rates showed a similar trend to the Bedok projects, with the bulk of applications coming from first-timer singles, followed by seniors, then families.
As the upcoming Caldecott BTO project includes CCAs, there could be less competition for singles for the two-room units. Recent policy changes such as the lowered age eligibility to 55 and reducing the mandatory Basic Service Package (BSP) fees by 18 to 75% with new subsidies for CCA-eligible residents may also have an impact on its take-up rate.
Resale prices of town comparables
Even without citing specific examples, resale prices in Toa Payoh are higher than comparative flats in Bedok South / Bayshore. This is largely attributed to Toa Payoh's central location and concentration of older resale flats.
When we examine the transaction data, price movements over the past decade reflect this trend, with two-room prices seeing modest gains while the average price of four-room resale units climbed towards the $1 million mark.
Toa Payoh 10-year average resale prices
| Year | 2-room | 4-room |
| 2015 | $244,640 | $522,969 |
| 2016 | $234,786 | $551,592 |
| 2017 | $216,478 | $577,357 |
| 2018 | $203,400 | $586,494 |
| 2019 | $196,310 | $556,900 |
| 2020 | $196,121 | $554,877 |
| 2021 | $233,978 | $603,805 |
| 2022 | $261,022 | $702,864 |
| 2023 | $268,373 | $737,096 |
| 2024 | $279,333 | $821,044 |
| 2025 | $299,600 | $912,963 |
Two-room resale average based on the nearest comparable at Lorong 2 Toa Payoh: $285,400.
Four-room resale average based on nearest comparable at Lorong 1 and 1A: $1.029 million to $1.118 million.
Bedok 10-year average resale prices
| Year | 2-room | 3-room | 4-room |
| 2015 | $242,816 | $312,358 | $431,074 |
| 2016 | $237,850 | $308,707 | $431,132 |
| 2017 | $235,556 | $306,876 | $443,213 |
| 2018 | $221,952 | $296,320 | $432,484 |
| 2019 | $209,753 | $283,984 | $426,143 |
| 2020 | $215,250 | $289,222 | $444,349 |
| 2021 | $254,631 | $328,491 | $488,178 |
| 2022 | $272,350 | $358,524 | $508,718 |
| 2023 | $306,200 | $380,469 | $572,050 |
| 2024 | $308,600 | $404,639 | $595,730 |
| 2025 | $332,720 | $449,264 | $653,687 |
Three-room resale average based on the nearest comparable at Bedok South Ave 3 and Bedok South Rd: $385,000 to $409,800.
Four-room resale average based on nearest comparable at Bedok South Ave 3 and Bedok South Rd: $604,000 to $828,135.
Final thoughts
The upcoming BTO projects in Bayshore and Caldecott are sure to draw significant interest from homebuyers, who will have to weigh their mid- to long-term needs against the future development plans of the respective areas.
As one of Singapore’s oldest estates, Toa Payoh has seen the development of public housing in Singapore, such as the first satellite town in the ‘60s and the first to benefit from the Estate Renewal Strategy used to rejuvenate old HDB towns.
For Bayshore, we can anticipate that the precinct will be transformed into a vibrant car-lite district. The new Bayshore SAFRA clubhouse, which will be directly connected to Bedok South MRT station, will also add to the area's lifestyle offerings.
Whether BTO buyers are looking for a home that will give them a location advantage in primary school registration, or homebuyers planning for retirement, these considerations would no doubt play a part in determining the ideal choice.
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