2024年在年末出现了数个意外。除了首批GFA统一后推出的公寓外,我们也看到创纪录数量的百万转售组屋突破$1 million。甚至有一套单位达到$1.73 million,创下HDB物业的新高。今年真实反映出新加坡人的购买力,无论是来自代际财富传承,还是后疫情经济改善。以下是回顾中的一些数据:

很多读者来信,是因为不确定下一步该怎么做,也不知道该相信谁。

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私人非有地住宅的成交量(不含EC)

Transaction Volume 2024
Type of Sale20232024Change
New Sale6,2446,290+0.7%
Resale10,23311,758+14.9%
Sub Sale1,2551,225-2.4%
Total17,73219,273+8.7%

成交量呈上升趋势,全年较2023年上涨8.7%。 

转售的非有地住宅占据大多数交易,但新盘几乎没有变化。转手(sub-sale)数量也略有回落。 

按区域划分的私人非有地住宅成交量(不含EC)

Market Segment20232024Total
Core Central Region3,3042,626-20.5%
Outside Central Region7,7699,847+26.7%
Rest of Central Region6,6596,800+2.1%
Total17,73219,273+8.7%

正如预期,CCR的成交量下滑。这主要是由于前一年的(2023年)ABSD上调,将外国人的ABSD提高到60%。由于外国人在核心地段物业中占据重要买方群体,该区域承受了此类降温措施的主要冲击。 

RCR的成交量也仅小幅增长,可能受第15区四个瞩目新盘带动:The Continuum、Tembusu Grand、Grand Dunman,以及销售极快的Emerald of Katong几乎在两天内售罄)。 

OCR构成了私人非有地交易的大头,其中一匹强势黑马是Chuan Park。OCR中另一亮点是Norwood Grand,其在开盘当天售出84%的单位,部分原因在于Norwood是其周边约12年来首个新盘。

私人非有地住宅整体价格走势

Price Movement 2024
YearMedian Unit Price ($ PSF)
20231,772
20241,822
Change+2.8%

总体而言,私人非有地价格较上一年上涨2.8%。虽然仍在攀升,但涨幅已较疫情后期放缓。彼时在2021至2022年间,价格上涨了7.4%。

分区价格变动如下:

Market Segment2023 $PSF2023 Volume2024 $PSF2024 VolumeApprox Gain/Loss
Core Central Region$2,5023,304$2,2062,626-11.8%
Outside Central Region$1,43110,452$1,57113,035+9.8%
Rest of Central Region$2,1686,668$2,2136,809+2.1%
Singapore$1,77220,424$1,82222,470+2.8%

同样可以看到,CCR首当其冲,全年下跌11.8%。这导致RCR与CCR之间的价差收窄,或许为本地买家,或与公民适用相同税率的外国买家(例如美国公民)带来持续的机会。 

不过,OCR价格涨势更为显著,上涨9.8%。2024年末——也许在来年——HDB升级族或许会受到近期房贷利率下调的鼓舞。 

这并非我们可控:随着美国通胀问题趋稳,美联储往往会下调利率,从而传导至本地与SORA挂钩的房贷。但美国正经历政治变化,2025年的走向仍不明朗。若美国实施关税并推升通胀,联储可能不得不再次加息。 

无论如何,HDB升级族仍是主力买家,其首选区域仍是相对可负担的OCR。

2024年新盘

Project NameTotal Number of Units in ProjectCumulative Units Sold to-dateHighest $PSF In 2024Average $PSF In 2024Lowest $PSF In 2024Take-Up Rate
19 NASSIM10166$3,819$3,392$2,95765.3%
32 GILSTEAD149$3,505$3,455$3,43164.3%
8@BT15884$3,033$2,748$2,52753.2%
ALTURA360353$1,549$1,491$1,41798.1%
ARDOR RESIDENCE357$2,497$2,439$2,37520.0%
ATLASSIA3127$2,238$2,224$2,18887.1%
BARTLEY VUE115111$2,158$2,043$1,87696.5%
BLOSSOMS BY THE PARK275254$2,673$2,520$2,24192.4%
CANNINGHILL PIERS696684$3,567$2,969$2,80298.3%
CHUAN PARK916733$2,765$2,587$2,26980.0%
CLAYDENCE286$2,301$2,292$2,25121.4%
EMERALD OF KATONG846840$2,967$2,637$2,38799.3%
ENCHANTÉ2522$3,246$2,869$2,73588.0%
GEMS VILLE247$2,226$2,003$1,84929.2%
GRAND DUNMAN1008736$2,977$2,588$2,28573.0%
GRANGE 18666045$3,393$3,184$2,98975.0%
HILL HOUSE7230$3,378$3,146$2,96341.7%
HILLHAVEN341265$2,354$2,102$1,85877.7%
HILLOCK GREEN474364$2,555$2,208$1,76476.8%
IKIGAI1614$2,327$2,320$2,31487.5%
IRWELL HILL RESIDENCES540538$2,638$2,638$2,63899.6%
J'DEN368341$2,832$2,571$2,36392.7%
JANSEN HOUSE215$2,121$2,061$2,02323.8%
K SUITES198$2,443$2,165$2,05242.1%
KASSIA276183$2,225$2,030$1,82166.3%
KLIMT CAIRNHILL138138$3,863$3,408$3,162100.0%
KOON SENG HOUSE176$2,410$2,322$2,28435.3%
KOVAN JEWEL3415$2,228$2,120$1,95444.1%
LAVENDER RESIDENCE1717$2,307$2,049$1,626100.0%
LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES598591$2,443$2,146$1,92298.8%
LENTOR MANSION533498$2,476$2,271$2,10493.4%
LENTOR MODERN605604$2,468$2,250$1,98699.8%
LENTORIA267180$2,516$2,183$1,96567.4%
LUMINA GRAND512447$1,590$1,514$1,32687.3%
MEYER BLUE226132$3,569$3,243$2,98458.4%
MIDTOWN BAY219138$4,108$3,546$3,09063.0%
MIDTOWN MODERN558558$3,939$3,439$2,659100.0%
MORI137137$1,963$1,848$1,757100.0%
NAVA GROVE552386$2,703$2,452$2,20969.9%
NORTH GAIA616592$1,459$1,326$1,22196.1%
NORWOOD GRAND348292$2,252$2,080$1,89583.9%
NOVO PLACE504446$1,754$1,655$1,50688.5%
ONE BERNAM351259$3,351$2,768$2,28973.8%
ORCHARD SOPHIA7845$3,004$2,886$2,78257.7%
PARC GREENWICH496496$1,559$1,456$1,359100.0%
PARQ BELLA2017$2,359$2,325$2,28285.0%
PASIR RIS 8487487$1,891$1,789$1,742100.0%
PERFECT TEN230230$3,589$3,476$3,372100.0%
PINETREE HILL520378$2,763$2,504$2,13972.7%
POLLEN COLLECTION132103$2,434$2,227$1,47778.0%
PROVENCE RESIDENCE413412$1,551$1,492$1,45499.8%
ROYAL HALLMARK3231$2,304$2,304$2,30496.9%
SANCTUARY@NEWTON3810$2,835$2,673$2,58926.3%
SCENECA RESIDENCE268246$2,200$2,061$1,82991.8%
SKY EDEN@BEDOK158158$2,190$2,094$1,929100.0%
SKYWATERS RESIDENCES1901$6,100$6,100$6,1000.5%
SORA440134$2,502$2,168$1,85130.5%
STRAITS AT JOO CHIAT168$2,170$2,107$2,05950.0%
TEMBUSU GRAND638583$2,725$2,445$2,19391.4%
TENET618618$1,651$1,531$1,397100.0%
TERRA HILL270120$2,844$2,683$2,23844.4%
THE ARCADY AT BOON KENG17264$2,754$2,578$2,35737.2%
THE ARDEN10579$1,904$1,786$1,62075.2%
THE BOTANY AT DAIRY FARM386382$2,345$2,025$1,80599.0%
THE CARRARA64$3,179$3,113$3,06366.7%
THE COLLECTIVE AT ONE SOPHIA36764$2,917$2,740$2,56117.4%
THE CONTINUUM816545$3,091$2,853$2,64166.8%
THE HILL @ONE-NORTH14255$2,708$2,582$2,27238.7%
THE HILLSHORE593$2,670$2,592$2,5085.1%
THE LAKEGARDEN RESIDENCES306199$2,556$2,179$1,89965.0%
THE LANDMARK396396$3,100$2,805$2,338100.0%
THE MYST408308$2,402$2,123$1,87775.5%
THE REEF AT KING'S DOCK429429$2,777$2,665$2,462100.0%
THE RESERVE RESIDENCES732716$3,154$2,567$2,30497.8%
THE SHOREFRONT237$1,901$1,897$1,88930.4%
UNION SQUARE RESIDENCES366106$3,752$3,166$2,85629.0%
WATTEN HOUSE180156$3,576$3,273$3,11886.7%
ZYANYA3428$2,089$1,996$1,90382.4%

2024年的一项显著变化是GFA统一。2024年的部分项目(如Emerald of Katong)按GFA统一后的规则计量面积(见上文链接)。这意味着单位的某些部分(如空调机位)不计入总建筑面积。这会抬高标示的每平方英尺价格(psf),但实际可居住空间与总价并未改变。 

2024年核心中央区(CCR)热销项目

Project NameSold In 2024Median $PSF In 2024Median Price In 2024Tenure
THE COLLECTIVE AT ONE SOPHIA64$2,734$1,213,50099 yrs from 06/12/2023
19 NASSIM54$3,386$3,382,14099 yrs from 17/06/2019
ONE BERNAM54$2,738$2,266,41099 yrs from 10/12/2019
KLIMT CAIRNHILL48$3,377$3,124,000Freehold
WATTEN HOUSE43$3,246$5,022,000Freehold

2024年中央区其他地区(RCR)热销项目

Project NameNumber of UnitsMedian $PSF In 2024Median Price In 2024Tenure
EMERALD OF KATONG840$2,627$2,357,00099 yrs from 07/11/2023
NAVA GROVE386$2,445$1,965,80099 yrs from 13/02/2024
THE CONTINUUM240$2,869$2,542,000Freehold
TEMBUSU GRAND206$2,424$2,814,00099 yrs from 25/04/2022
PINETREE HILL195$2,511$2,079,00099 yrs from 12/09/2022

2024年中央区以外(OCR)热销项目

Project NameNumber of UnitsMedian $PSF In 2024Median Price In 2024Tenure
CHUAN PARK724$2,587$2,327,36199 yrs from 25/07/2024
LENTOR MANSION492$2,266$1,790,50099 yrs from 11/07/2023
LUMINA GRAND447$1,525$1,520,00099 yrs from 27/12/2022
NOVO PLACE445$1,651$1,526,00099 yrs from 11/12/2023
NORWOOD GRAND291$2,081$1,522,00099 yrs from 18/12/2023

2024年转售项目表现

延续去年,地产经纪反映转售与新盘之间的价差仍是一大挑战。2024年“找卖家”仍比“找买家”更难,部分潜在卖家被置换房产的高成本所阻。 

转售表现最佳

ProjectQuantum Gains% GainSale DateTransactedHolding Period (Years)
LAGUNA PARK+$2,410,000438%4/11/24$2,960,00025
HAWAII TOWER+$3,225,000416%2/2/24$4,000,00024.9
SHERWOOD TOWER+$1,243,888395%7/8/24$1,558,88818.8
RISING COURT+$1,645,000383%17/7/24$2,075,00022
BOTANIC GARDENS VIEW+$3,265,700379%9/9/24$4,128,00026.2

转售表现最差

ProjectQuantum Loss% LossSale DateTransactedHolding Period (Years)
SUN COURT-$343,367-41%19/8/24$492,63328
THE BERTH BY THE COVE-$1,929,310-35%29/11/24$3,600,00017.3
THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY-$1,165,392-31%25/4/24$2,550,00012.9
OUE TWIN PEAKS-$552,530-31%21/5/24$1,239,0707.3
ORCHARD SCOTTS-$1,643,340-30%9/7/24$3,900,00015

有些人或许会对Hawaii Tower上榜感到意外,这是一座80年代的公寓,户型并不讨喜。其单位采用弧形平面——尽管能带来全景视野——却让室内设计更为尴尬;且视窗处理不当时,增加的日照也可能带来更多热负荷。尽管如此,以当今标准来看,其单位面积可谓巨大(超过2,200+ 平方英尺)。此外,名声在外的Meyer Road地段也足以弥补不少不足。 

表现垫底的项目,可能受CCR降温措施的影响所拖累。至于Sun Court,其表现或与楼龄(1985年落成)及交易波动性(仅19个单位)有关,因而不宜过度解读。 

2024年租赁市场概况

2024年租赁合约量

Market Segment20232024Change
Core Central Region24,33023,545-3.2%
Outside Central Region31,71830,984-2.3%
Rest of Central Region28,06226,448-5.8%
Total84,11080,977-3.7%

2024年租金水平

Market Segment20232024Change
Core Central Region5.725.52-3.5%
Outside Central Region4.254.22-0.7%
Rest of Central Region5.265.18-1.5%
Total4.974.87-2.0%

2024年租赁市场走软,符合预期。这是对COVID-19后住房仍短缺时期的回调。更多大型项目交付,以及先前因COVID-19延误的HDB项目完工,持续降低了需求与租金。 

2024年租金回报率最高的项目

PostalDistrictProject NameTenureCompletionDateAveragePrice($psf)#TransactionsAverageRent($psf pm)#RentalContractsRentalYield(%)
21THE HILLFORD60 yrs FROM 201320161,429147.33866.2
19KOVAN GRANDEUR99 yrs FROM 201020111,18745.89196
14LE REGALFreehold20151,39946.64315.7
14# 1 SUITESFreehold20161,25085.83185.6
19SUITES @ PAYA LEBARFreehold20131,51686.64345.3
来源:Squarefoot Research

需要注意的是,The Hillford 算是“有点作弊”,因为它是60年地契且价格异常低。这使得The Hillford很容易在毛租金回报率上胜过其他公寓。

Postal
District
Project NameTenureCompletion
Date
Average
Price
($psf)
#
Transactions
Average
Rent
($psf pm)
#
Rental
Contracts
Rental
Yield
(%)
20FABER GARDEN CONDOMINIUMFreehold19841,78252.73331.8
15KING'S MANSIONFreehold19821,92673.13331.9
10ARDMORE PARKFreehold20014,22966.56751.9
9LEONIE TOWERSFreehold19761,92153.24172
9KIM SIA COURTFreehold-2,07373.71522.1
来源:Squarefoot Research

2024年HDB转售市场

我们猜想HDB对目前的局面并不乐见,因为转售组屋价格仍然高企。标价$1 million的单位在2024年达到1,000套,而我们也开始看到$1.5 million成为HDB卖家的新里程碑/目标。SkyOasis @ Dawson亦在2024年诞生了史上最贵的HDB单位,成交价为$1.73 million。 

我们也确实看到了转售组屋成交量的上升:

HDB Transaction Volume
YearVolume
202325,755
202427,535
Change+6.9%

价格走势与成交量的增长,或反映出在公寓价格走高的背景下,更多买家转向更大或地段更优的转售组屋。以下为价格的涨幅:

HDB Price Movement 2024 1
20232024
Flat TypeVolumeAverage $PSFVolumeAverage $PSFApprox Gain/Loss
1 ROOM6$72811$763+4.8%
2 ROOM688$659795$703+6.7%
3 ROOM6,355$5636,721$600+6.7%
4 ROOM11,357$57411,862$617+7.5%
5 ROOM5,843$5436,398$577+6.3%
EXECUTIVE1,503$5301,742$560+5.7%
MULTI-GENERATION3$5386$619+15.1%

撇开3G组屋不谈(因为仅6宗成交不足以得出太多结论),涨幅最大的是4房组屋。并不意外,因为它是最常见的户型;可以看到,各种户型的转售价格都在继续走高。 

2024年BTO新盘

EstateBTO NameLaunch DateEst. CompletionTypeUnits
BedokBedok North Springs21 Feb 202438 monthsMature433
BedokBedok South Bloom21 Feb 202440 monthsMature528
PunggolMatilda Riverside21 Feb 202437 monthsNon Mature962
Choa Chu KangRail Garden @ CCK21 Feb 202445 monthsNon Mature465
QueenstownTanglin Halt Courtyard21 Feb 202458 monthsPLH251
HougangTanjong Tree Residences @ Hougang21 Feb 202439 monthsNon Mature360
WoodlandsWoodgrove Edge21 Feb 202438/39 monthsNon Mature1127
YishunChencharu Hills19 Jun 202444 / 45 monthsNon Mature1277
QueenstownHolland Vista19 Jun 202457 monthsPLH342
WoodlandsMarsiling Peak I & II19 Jun 202435 / 54 monthsNon Mature1609
TampinesTampines GreenTopaz19 Jun 202437 monthsmature561
Kallang/WhampoaTanjong Rhu Riverfront I & II19 Jun 202448 / 55 monthsPLH2063
Jurong WestTeban Breeze19 Jun 202454 monthsNon Mature1086
BedokBayshore Palms16 Oct 202447 monthsPlus710
BedokBayshore Vista16 Oct 202445 monthsPlus734
Ang Mo KioCentral Trio @ AMK16 Oct 202459 monthsPlus422
Pasir RisCosta Riviera I & II16 Oct 202437 / 38 monthsStandard767
Kallang/WhampoaCrawford Heights16 Oct 202450 monthsPrime312
SengkangFernvale Oasis16 Oct 202433 monthsStandard851
SengkangFernvale Sails16 Oct 202427 monthsStandard545
Kallang/WhampoaKallang View16 Oct 202443 monthsPlus271
BedokKembangan Wave16 Oct 202441 monthsPlus348
WoodlandsMarsiling Ridge16 Oct 202443 monthsStandard292
GeylangMerpati Alcove16 Oct 202444 monthsPlus433
Jurong WestTaman Jurong Skyline16 Oct 202452 monthsStandard1844
Kallang/WhampoaTowner Breeze16 Oct 202448 monthsPlus355
Bukit BatokWest BrickVille @ Bukit Batok16 Oct 202424 monthsStandard689

2024年首次出现Plus型组屋的推出。它们与Prime组屋有相同的限制,但成本更低;这类项目靠近邻里枢纽(通常是有商场与地铁站的地带),但不一定接近市中心。首批将落在Bayshore片区。 

2024年仅有两起EC开盘,去化率可谓意料之中的高:

ProjectUnitsUnits Sold To DateLowest $PSF In 2024Highest $PSF In 2024Median $PSF In 2024Take-Up
Novo Place5044451,5061,7541,65188.3%
Lumina Grand5124471,3261,5901,52587.3%

这些价格或许让正在苦于家庭型新公寓总价动辄突破$2 million的升级族松了一口气。尤其是Novo Place,作为真正意义上的先发优势案例:Tengah尚无其他EC,其表现将被密切关注。 

总体而言,2024年私人非有地市场确有降温。然而,房贷利率下行与年末新盘热度攀升,也为2025年再现一波亢奋敲响了警钟。 

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