HDB Resale Prices Fell — But A Third Of Buyers Still Paid $800K+ Last Quarter. Here’s Why
Resale flat prices dipped last quarter, but about a third of buyers probably didn’t feel it.
We saw resale flat prices dip* for the first time in around seven years in the first three months of this year. This came amid an increase in the number of resale flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) this year, as well as shorter build times for some build-to-order (BTO) projects.
But there were more insights in Realion (OrangeTee &ETC) Group’s 1Q2026 HDB Resale & BTO report, which came out at the start of this week. It cited transaction data from data.gov.sg, that the number of resale flats sold for at least $800,000 increased 30.3% q-o-q from 1,047 units in 4Q2025 to 1,364 units in 1Q2026.
So, while overall HDB resale prices slipped over the first three months of this year, if you were among the third of buyers paying $800,000 and above (or competing with them), statistics about moderating price growth can seem disconnected.
As always, specifics matter and depending on where you bought your flat, resale prices may actually have gotten higher, despite moderating price growth in the public housing market.
According to the Realion report, resale HDB prices in Clementi fell from an average price of $753,523 to $701,862 (-6.9%) from 4Q2025 to 1Q2026, Marine Parade declined from $665,880 to $629,204 (-5.5%), and Bishan from $891,850 to $852,960 (-4.4%) over the same period.
On the other hand, average resale flat prices in Ang Mo Kio rose from $568,088 to $675,105 (+18.8%), and Serangoon from $682,880 to $720,833 (+5.6%).
Although Clementi, Marine Parade, Bukit Timah, and Bishan recorded the steepest quarterly price declines, that doesn’t mean these areas have suddenly become ‘cheap’. In general, these are still some of the most expensive HDB towns.
The price declines in these four towns are attributed to lower resale transaction volumes. In these situations, a few relatively lower-priced outlying transactions can pull down the town’s average for that quarter.
In fact, when it comes to high-demand areas, the number of million-dollar flats continues to grow. There were 412 of these million-dollar transactions in the first quarter of this year, up from 350 units in 4Q2025.
Meanwhile, February saw the most expensive resale flat sold to date: a $1.7 million 5-room flat, at SkyTerrace @ Dawson.
The market analysis by Realion projects that overall HDB resale prices are still on track to increase by 2% to 4% for the whole of 2026. This is not too far from the 2.9% price increase we saw in 2025.
News pieces like this explain what’s happening in the market. Our consultations are designed to help you understand what it means for your own property decisions.
If you’re considering buying, selling or upgrading, we’d be happy to help you work through your options.
Together, there are indications that this might be how a two-speed market develops.
Overall, resale price growth in the HDB market may be starting to decelerate as a whole. But if you’re going for a particularly strong location, or a scarce unit type (such as a DBSS flat), you’re effectively navigating in another market.
No amount of new BTO supply might provide alternatives to Pinnacle @ Duxton, or a maisonette in Queenstown. But how does that translate in terms of public housing affordability in 2026?
Well, this is where that debate can get a bit messy.
Some take a blunt perspective: that if you can’t secure a flat just because you’re picky, that doesn’t mean we have an affordability issue.
If you reject cheaper BTO flats because you prefer to stay in Kallang / Whampoa, or you won’t ballot for a three-room flat (much higher chances!) because you want the biggest possible unit, then you’re fussy, not trapped.
Other perspectives point to specific buyer needs. One reader I’ve met mentioned that they need to care for both parents, which requires them to stay near them in Queenstown.
Others bring up concerns like proximity to their children’s school or being confined to pricier resale options due to their family circumstances, such as both spouses being Permanent Residents.
There’s also simple bad luck: some people ballot for a BTO flat repeatedly, and fail repeatedly, to the point where time and urgency pressure them to look for alternatives in the resale market.
To these buyers, talk of a supposed “slowdown” in the public housing market can feel disconnected from the reality they face. With each new million-dollar flat sold, it reinforces the impression that resale prices can only keep climbing, and something has gone off track with the intent of HDB housing.
While that perception is understandable, it doesn’t fully reflect what’s happening. Housing policy measures are clearly having some effect at a broad level on the resale market. The challenge is that these shifts are too gradual and provide immediate relief for some buyers.
So, what should buyers actually do with this information?
First, recognise that the housing market described in news headlines is usually not the market you might be house hunting in.
Practically, the housing market that most local homeowners face is a collection of small, fragmented markets, each with its own dynamics, even within the same towns. It’s a Sunset Way estate is very different from the rest of Clementi, and Tampines West is very different from Tampines – a topic we covered in Stacked Pro, by the way.
What matters is the mid-range of transactions in the area you’re looking at, because that’s most likely to be the sub-market dynamics you’ll likely experience.
Second, keep in mind that the risk of waiting on the sidelines isn’t the same across the market. For example, consider two buyers waiting for prices to drop: one is hoping for a cheaper four-room flat in Woodlands, and the other is hoping for a cheaper five-room flat in Queenstown.
Now let’s say both are wrong and, for simplicity’s sake, prices go up 3% this quarter. Based on the current average prices, that’s about a $17,000 jump for a four-room flat in Woodlands, but over a $36,000 jump for a five-room flat in Queenstown.
So, if you do decide to try to time the market this way (itself a questionable idea), keep in mind the downside risks can significantly differ between buyers.
This argument over whether HDB flats – particularly resale units – are too expensive is an ongoing topic, but one that’s gained extra attention in recent years due to the elevated resale prices after the Covid-19 pandemic. If there’s one difference in the story, though, it’s that government measures have taken on a relatively lighter touch at the risk of less immediate effects.
Back in 2013, policy measures were more heavy-handed, like imposing the Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) and removing Cash Over Valuation (COV) data from the public eye. In 2026, the government’s levers will be to gradually raise new housing supply, and count on shorter construction time to take some of the buying pressure off the resale market.
But there’s little doubt that, if prices do need to be cooled more rapidly, the government does have the right tools. We’ve seen them in use before.
Meanwhile, in other property news…
- Executive Condominiums (ECs) have been in the limelight lately, with the successful launches of Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines. But are ECs still the goldmines of yesteryear, given the higher prices today? We’re going to take a deeper look.
- Freehold condo for leasehold landed: is it a good trade-off? We examined this interesting conundrum with our response to a reader.
- The Kallang Close GLS site has been sold for $610.8 million. For those seeking a waterfront condo in a city fringe location, take note: a project here could start from around $2,900 psf. Full details here.
- Thomson Plaza’s retail block was bought for just $172.5 million back in 2023…but it’s already sold for $250 million. Here’s what happened.
- Bishan Loft was an earlier generation EC, but stood out because of its location in Bishan. What’s happened to it since? We took a deep dive with Stacked Pro.
Weekly Sales Roundup (30 March – 05 April)
Top 5 Most Expensive New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| RIVER MODERN | $6,611,000 | 1830 | $3,613 | 99 yrs (2025) |
| TERRA HILL | $5,200,000 | 2142 | $2,428 | FH |
| THE CONTINUUM | $4,509,000 | 1690 | $2,668 | FH |
| CHUAN PARK | $4,067,600 | 1550 | $2,624 | 99 yrs (2024) |
| PARKTOWN RESIDENCE | $3,973,000 | 1679 | $2,366 | 99 yrs (2023) |
Top 5 Cheapest New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| ARINA EAST RESIDENCES | $1,291,000 | 495 | $2,607 | FH |
| NARRA RESIDENCES | $1,321,000 | 646 | $2,045 | 99 yrs (2025) |
| THE CONTINUUM | $1,378,000 | 560 | $2,462 | FH |
| RIVER GREEN | $1,530,000 | 452 | $3,384 | 99 yrs (2024) |
| PINERY RESIDENCES | $1,538,000 | 624 | $2,464 | 99 yrs |
Top 5 Most Expensive Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| TOMLINSON HEIGHTS | $10,600,000 | 2745 | $3,862 | FH |
| THE GRANGE | $7,438,000 | 2282 | $3,259 | FH |
| NASSIM JADE | $6,500,000 | 2411 | $2,696 | FH |
| ARDMORE THREE | $6,050,000 | 1787 | $3,386 | FH |
| THE TRILLIUM | $6,000,000 | 2217 | $2,706 | FH |
Top 5 Cheapest Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| PARC ROSEWOOD | $680,000 | 527 | $1,289 | 99 yrs (2011) |
| EUHABITAT | $728,000 | 527 | $1,380 | 99 yrs (2010) |
| KINGSFORD . HILLVIEW PEAK | $755,000 | 517 | $1,461 | 99 yrs (2012) |
| EUHABITAT | $760,000 | 527 | $1,441 | 99 yrs (2010) |
| SELETAR PARK RESIDENCE | $768,000 | 581 | $1,321 | 99 yrs (2011) |
Top 5 Biggest Winners
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| NASSIM JADE | $6,500,000 | 2411 | $2,696 | $2,560,200 | 31 Years |
| CLOVER BY THE PARK | $3,550,000 | 1744 | $2,036 | $2,301,610 | 17 Years |
| RIVERGATE | $4,762,000 | 1507 | $3,160 | $1,974,050 | 16 Years |
| THE TRILLIUM | $6,000,000 | 2217 | $2,706 | $1,820,000 | 19 Years |
| THE STELLAR | $2,600,000 | 1485 | $1,750 | $1,720,000 | 20 Years |
Top 5 Biggest Losers
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY | $2,500,000 | 1539 | $1,624 | -$863,000 | 13 Years |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $1,200,000 | 678 | $1,770 | -$474,820 | 5 Years |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $2,160,000 | 1119 | $1,930 | -$260,100 | 11 Years |
| ICON | $1,170,000 | 786 | $1,489 | -$100,000 | 18 Years |
| THE ENCLAVE . HOLLAND | $1,050,000 | 570 | $1,841 | -$4,500 | 6 Years |
Top 5 Biggest Winners (ROI%)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | ROI (%) | HOLDING PERIOD |
| THE CENTRIS | $2,310,000 | 1442 | $1,602 | 208% | 19 Years |
| THE STELLAR | $2,600,000 | 1485 | $1,750 | 196% | 20 Years |
| CLOVER BY THE PARK | $3,550,000 | 1744 | $2,036 | 184% | 17 Years |
| SUMMERDALE | $1,222,888 | 1270 | $963 | 171% | 27 Years |
| HILLVIEW REGENCY | $1,010,000 | 904 | $1,117 | 152% | 23 Years |
Top 5 Biggest Losers (ROI%)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | ROI (%) | HOLDING PERIOD |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $1,200,000 | 678 | $1,770 | -28% | 5 Years |
| REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY | $2,500,000 | 1539 | $1,624 | -26% | 13 Years |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $2,160,000 | 1119 | $1,930 | -11% | 11 Years |
| ICON | $1,170,000 | 786 | $1,489 | -8% | 18 Years |
| THE ENCLAVE . HOLLAND | $1,050,000 | 570 | $1,841 | 0% | 6 Years |
Transaction Breakdown
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A single headline is rarely enough to change your plans. The value comes from understanding how today’s news fits into the broader direction of the market.
If you’d like to talk through what a shift like this means for your own timing, purchase, or exit, you can reach out for a one-to-one consultation here.
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