2024年是一个重要的年份,处于住房供应热潮的尾声。随着过去两年住房建设提速,而新冠疫情已被抛诸脑后,一些HDB买家正期待市场喘口气——不过虽然情况似乎有所改善,很难说我们能否就在今年看到更低的价格。以下是目前的走势概况:

很多读者来信,是因为不确定下一步该怎么做,也不知道该相信谁。

如果你有类似的困惑,我们提供结构化的一对一咨询,帮你全面梳理财务状况、购房目标与市场选项:客观分析,不带立场。

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2024年的HDB转售市场情况

转售市场最大的变化之一来自BTO端。去年8月,政府结束了沿用多年的成熟/非成熟分法;组屋现改为Prime、Plus 和 Standard分类。我们已见到部分Prime项目,而2024年将在Bayshore地区迎来首批Plus型号组屋。

在接下来的一年里,我们或许会开始看到这一新模型的影响。Plus 与 Prime 组屋可能吸引那些更看重HDB地段、但无意升级*的买家。这可能让部分BTO推盘从转售市场分流需求。 

SkyParc@Dawson 103 block design

相反,临近Plus 或 Prime 推出的现有组屋,价格可能出现上扬。原因在于周边旧组屋享有相同的区位优势,却不受 10-year MOP 或 Subsidy Recovery(SR)回收等限制。 

此外,OrangeTee 与 Huttons 预测2024年平均组屋价格将上涨 three to five per cent,而 PropNex 则估计为 four to five per cent。这一增速较过去两年放缓,主要因供应增加。 

如前所述,另一个可能抑制涨势的因素是利率上行。虽然HDB贷款利率维持(2.6 per cent)不变,但部分买家不得不转向银行贷款;考虑到2023年末利率已逼近 four per cent,这些买家面对高价可能会愈发抗拒。 

总体而言,这并非部分买家所期待的大幅回落;但相较于新冠后的紧张阶段,买家目前的处境确实略有改善。 

*升级族往往更偏好转售组屋而非BTO,因为他们无需等待施工期,正好在五年即可升级。 

2023年非成熟城镇4房式组屋价格走势

以下是过去一年非成熟城镇的价格变化:

非成熟2023-H12023-H2
城镇平均价格平均屋龄成交量平均价格平均屋龄成交量价格变化
BUKIT BATOK$586,60217271$587,564163800.2%
BUKIT PANJANG$510,61923163$518,928242041.6%
CHOA CHU KANG$496,40323251$506,556223452.0%
HOUGANG$531,47527256$555,772244254.6%
JURONG EAST$477,5313568$502,98631745.3%
JURONG WEST$487,88026234$506,929253633.9%
PUNGGOL$584,54010472$603,140105873.2%
SEMBAWANG$537,37112184$549,535113442.3%
SENGKANG$564,76614401$571,118156241.1%
WOODLANDS$487,20023433$508,784225254.4%
YISHUN$489,00826402$505,090254683.3%

按屋龄分类的最便宜4房式组屋:

10年及以下

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
CHOA CHU KANG803B KEAT HONG CL04 TO 06932017$400,000
WOODLANDS780C WOODLANDS CRES04 TO 06922015$475,000
BUKIT PANJANG547A SEGAR RD04 TO 06922015$480,000
WOODLANDS783A WOODLANDS RISE04 TO 06932018$480,000
BUKIT PANJANG550B SEGAR RD04 TO 06922015$480,000
SENGKANG164A RIVERVALE CRES04 TO 06932017$480,000
SEMBAWANG463B SEMBAWANG DR07 TO 09922015$480,000
WOODLANDS782D WOODLANDS CRES13 TO 15922015$480,000
SENGKANG178B RIVERVALE CRES04 TO 06932015$485,000
YISHUN333C YISHUN ST 3107 TO 09922015$492,000
SEMBAWANG590B MONTREAL LINK04 TO 06932015$495,000
PUNGGOL121B EDGEDALE PLAINS04 TO 06932017$495,000

11 - 20年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
YISHUN452 YISHUN RING RD07 TO 09922012$498,000
SEMBAWANG510A WELLINGTON CIRCLE04 TO 06902004$468,000
BUKIT BATOK392 BT BATOK WEST AVE 504 TO 06922004$470,000
JURONG WEST676B JURONG WEST ST 6407 TO 09922008$470,000
SEMBAWANG486 ADMIRALTY LINK04 TO 06902004$473,888
SEMBAWANG509A WELLINGTON CIRCLE10 TO 12902004$475,000
HOUGANG984A BUANGKOK LINK10 TO 12852004$478,000
PUNGGOL171A EDGEDALE PLAINS07 TO 09862004$480,000
PUNGGOL161A PUNGGOL CTRL07 TO 09952004$480,000
SENGKANG207A COMPASSVALE LANE10 TO 12922005$486,000
WOODLANDS12C MARSILING LANE04 TO 06932013$488,000
SENGKANG405C FERNVALE LANE04 TO 06932004$490,000
CHOA CHU KANG476B CHOA CHU KANG AVE 507 TO 09922013$490,000
WOODLANDS689D WOODLANDS DR 7510 TO 12902004$490,000
JURONG WEST675A JURONG WEST ST 6413 TO 15922008$490,000
SENGKANG406A FERNVALE RD07 TO 09902004$491,000
SENGKANG152 RIVERVALE CRES04 TO 06912005$492,000
BUKIT BATOK384 BT BATOK WEST AVE 504 TO 06922005$495,000
BUKIT PANJANG630 SENJA RD04 TO 06902004$495,000
SENGKANG150 RIVERVALE CRES04 TO 06912005$495,000
JURONG WEST677B JURONG WEST ST 6410 TO 12902008$495,000
SEMBAWANG508C WELLINGTON CIRCLE07 TO 09902004$496,000
PUNGGOL172C EDGEDALE PLAINS07 TO 09852004$498,000

21 - 30年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
WOODLANDS428 WOODLANDS ST 4110 TO 12841996$428,000
JURONG WEST276C JURONG WEST ST 2504 TO 06902002$438,000
CHOA CHU KANG685C CHOA CHU KANG CRES07 TO 09852002$438,000
WOODLANDS554 WOODLANDS DR 5304 TO 06901999$439,998
SEMBAWANG407 SEMBAWANG DR10 TO 12902001$440,000
SENGKANG185D RIVERVALE CRES13 TO 15852000$440,000
SENGKANG185B RIVERVALE CRES04 TO 06882000$445,000
WOODLANDS604 WOODLANDS DR 4204 TO 06911997$445,000
SENGKANG184C RIVERVALE CRES07 TO 09852003$446,000
JURONG WEST275B JURONG WEST ST 2504 TO 06902002$448,000
JURONG WEST655A JURONG WEST ST 6104 TO 06862002$448,000
CHOA CHU KANG442 CHOA CHU KANG AVE 413 TO 15911997$448,888

超过30年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
WOODLANDS104 WOODLANDS ST 1304 TO 06911985$350,000
WOODLANDS7 MARSILING DR04 TO 06881976$360,000
WOODLANDS25 MARSILING DR10 TO 12911977$360,000
WOODLANDS205 MARSILING DR07 TO 09911980$363,000
WOODLANDS8 MARSILING DR07 TO 09881976$368,000
WOODLANDS26 MARSILING DR07 TO 09911977$368,000
WOODLANDS22 MARSILING DR07 TO 09921977$368,000
WOODLANDS5 MARSILING DR16 TO 18901974$370,000
WOODLANDS27 MARSILING DR07 TO 09911977$380,000
WOODLANDS34 MARSILING DR10 TO 12981978$384,000
WOODLANDS201 MARSILING DR04 TO 06911980$385,000
YISHUN280 YISHUN ST 2207 TO 09841985$385,000
YISHUN408 YISHUN AVE 604 TO 06841988$388,000
JURONG EAST243 JURONG EAST ST 2404 TO 06941983$390,000
YISHUN279 YISHUN ST 2207 TO 09841985$390,000
YISHUN407 YISHUN AVE 604 TO 06841988$392,000
HOUGANG15 HOUGANG AVE 313 TO 15821975$393,000
BUKIT PANJANG236 BT PANJANG RING RD04 TO 06841988$395,000
WOODLANDS28 MARSILING DR07 TO 09971977$395,000
WOODLANDS29 MARSILING DR10 TO 12971979$396,000

一些总体观察:

在屋龄较高(30年或以上)的房源中,Woodlands占据了榜单的大部分。以$330,000 至 $385,000 的价格区间(几乎与当下一些BTO相当),Woodlands看起来拥有新加坡最实惠的一批组屋。然而,这可能会带来某种误导。 

不过,不要把Woodlands中大量更便宜的组屋,误解为该地仍然像从前那样“ulu”。就整体价格走势而言,Woodlands排在第三位,2023年上半年与下半年之间上涨了 4.4 per cent。 

随着Woodlands North Coast及整个Woodlands作为北部区域中心的发展持续推进,这或许是未来趋势的一个信号。从长期来看,这为升值留出了更大的空间。 

若担心租约折旧(即更偏好新一些的房子),Woodlands、Choa Chu Kang 与 Bukit Panjang或许是不错的寻觅之地。这里的4房式仍显著低于$500,000,即便屋龄不足10年。

成熟城镇中最便宜的4房式组屋

成熟2023-H12023-H2
城镇平均价格平均屋龄成交量平均价格平均屋龄成交量价格变化
ANG MO KIO$647,71530156$649,875311880.3%
BEDOK$563,86632207$578,993322442.7%
BISHAN$687,9183377$720,134331164.7%
BUKIT MERAH$783,62220182$817,967192464.4%
BUKIT TIMAH$748,861398$764,9753982.2%
CENTRAL AREA$895,7722836$929,96328413.8%
CLEMENTI$661,29230100$679,443301182.7%
GEYLANG$612,93533115$665,882311268.6%
KALLANG/WHAMPOA$729,56024145$789,148221498.2%
MARINE PARADE$571,7504912$569,4784923-0.4%
PASIR RIS$552,91729119$577,902281504.5%
QUEENSTOWN$844,17416120$873,275161413.4%
SERANGOON$590,5973580$603,247371082.1%
TAMPINES$567,49030291$584,882303833.1%
TOA PAYOH$720,7452776$747,118261243.7%

按屋龄划分的最便宜4房式组屋

少于10年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
TAMPINES492G TAMPINES ST 4504 TO 06922018$600,000
TAMPINES869A TAMPINES AVE 810 TO 12922015$610,000
TAMPINES879A TAMPINES AVE 804 TO 06932017$630,000
PASIR RIS526A PASIR RIS ST 5110 TO 12932015$630,000
BEDOK808C CHAI CHEE RD04 TO 06882016$655,000
TAMPINES871B TAMPINES ST 8604 TO 06942017$660,000
TAMPINES890A TAMPINES AVE 104 TO 06932015$665,000
TAMPINES606B TAMPINES ST 6104 TO 06922020$675,000
BEDOK186B BEDOK NTH ST 404 TO 06932018$690,000

11 - 20年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
KALLANG/WHAMPOA19 JLN TENTERAM04 TO 06852004$608,000
KALLANG/WHAMPOA18 JLN TENTERAM07 TO 09852004$618,000
BUKIT MERAH109A DEPOT RD07 TO 09902006$658,000
BEDOK183 BEDOK NTH RD07 TO 09922005$660,000
BUKIT MERAH112B DEPOT RD19 TO 211002006$662,000
BEDOK182 BEDOK NTH RD04 TO 06922006$667,000
ANG MO KIO309A ANG MO KIO ST 3107 TO 09902006$678,888
TOA PAYOH79E TOA PAYOH CTRL07 TO 09762009$680,000
BEDOK185 BEDOK NTH RD13 TO 15922005$680,000
BEDOK180 BEDOK NTH RD16 TO 18922006$685,000
ANG MO KIO316A ANG MO KIO ST 3107 TO 09952006$690,000

21 - 30年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
TAMPINES346 TAMPINES ST 3307 TO 091091996$485,000
TAMPINES353 TAMPINES ST 3304 TO 061071996$520,000
PASIR RIS142 PASIR RIS ST 1104 TO 061081994$520,000
TAMPINES316 TAMPINES ST 3304 TO 061071995$520,000
TAMPINES352 TAMPINES ST 3310 TO 121071996$525,000
PASIR RIS633 PASIR RIS DR 304 TO 061041995$528,000
TAMPINES349 TAMPINES ST 3304 TO 061051996$530,000
PASIR RIS641 PASIR RIS DR 104 TO 061041995$535,000
TAMPINES366 TAMPINES ST 3404 TO 061001997$535,000
PASIR RIS749 PASIR RIS ST 7104 TO 061051996$535,000
TAMPINES365 TAMPINES ST 3404 TO 061011997$535,000
TAMPINES361 TAMPINES ST 3407 TO 091071996$535,000
PASIR RIS744 PASIR RIS ST 7110 TO 121031996$535,000
PASIR RIS750 PASIR RIS ST 7107 TO 091061996$538,888
PASIR RIS627 PASIR RIS DR 304 TO 061041995$540,000
PASIR RIS148 PASIR RIS ST 1304 TO 061151995$540,000
KALLANG/WHAMPOA16 JLN TENTERAM04 TO 06862002$540,000
SERANGOON548 SERANGOON NTH AVE 307 TO 091001998$540,000
PASIR RIS753 PASIR RIS ST 7107 TO 091051996$542,000
TAMPINES320 TAMPINES ST 3304 TO 061121995$545,000
TAMPINES364 TAMPINES ST 3407 TO 091021997$545,000
TAMPINES741 TAMPINES ST 7207 TO 091011997$548,000
PASIR RIS771 PASIR RIS ST 7110 TO 121051996$548,000

超过30年屋龄

城镇地址楼层范围面积租约起始价格
GEYLANG35 CIRCUIT RD16 TO 1883.11971$350,000
TOA PAYOH227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH10 TO 12821976$400,000
BEDOK36 BEDOK STH AVE 204 TO 06841977$402,000
ANG MO KIO622 ANG MO KIO AVE 904 TO 061001980$415,000
BEDOK34 BEDOK STH AVE 210 TO 12901977$415,000
BEDOK35 CHAI CHEE AVE04 TO 06821975$420,000
BUKIT MERAH102 HENDERSON CRES04 TO 06801970$420,000
BEDOK41 BEDOK STH RD04 TO 06841977$420,000
TOA PAYOH227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH10 TO 12821976$420,000
TOA PAYOH227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH10 TO 12821976$420,000
BISHAN25 SIN MING RD04 TO 06881974$425,000
TOA PAYOH226 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH07 TO 09821976$425,000
TOA PAYOH228 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH16 TO 18821976$425,000
BEDOK141 BEDOK RESERVOIR RD04 TO 06841986$428,000
CLEMENTI510 WEST COAST DR07 TO 09831978$430,000
BEDOK7 BEDOK STH AVE 207 TO 09821976$430,000
TOA PAYOH227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH13 TO 15821976$430,000
BEDOK6 BEDOK STH AVE 207 TO 09821976$435,000
BEDOK37 BEDOK STH AVE 210 TO 12841977$435,000
BEDOK127 BEDOK NTH ST 204 TO 06921978$438,000
BEDOK34 BEDOK STH AVE 213 TO 15901977$439,000
BEDOK36 BEDOK STH AVE 204 TO 06841977$440,000
BEDOK52 NEW UPP CHANGI RD13 TO 15841977$440,000
BEDOK53 NEW UPP CHANGI RD13 TO 15841977$440,000
TOA PAYOH219 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH16 TO 18821978$441,800
BUKIT MERAH23 TELOK BLANGAH CRES04 TO 06821975$443,000
TOA PAYOH227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH10 TO 12821976$445,000
TOA PAYOH213 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH10 TO 12821975$445,000
BEDOK704 BEDOK RESERVOIR RD10 TO 121021981$448,000
CLEMENTI712 CLEMENTI WEST ST 210 TO 12911980$448,888
BEDOK37 BEDOK STH AVE 213 TO 15841977$449,888

一些总体观察:

Tampines的确有不少相对较新、且价格仍可负担(低于$650,000)的转售组屋;但不出所料,这些并非位于Tampines最受欢迎的地段(那是商场与办公楼集中的Tampines Central)。 

Tampines GreenRidges 96 blocks

Tampines Street 45 与 Tampines Avenue 8 距离MRT相当远,最近的车站为Downtown Line上的Tampines East或Tampines West(不同于可接驳East-West Line的Tampines Central)。不过,若你并不挑剔,通常都有巴士可衔接至各个MRT站,或直达Tampines Central(Tampines East 与 Tampines West 同样可通达)。总的来说,若房龄不足 six 年,这个价格并不算差。 

另一方面,位于Geylang的 35 Circuit Road 出现了一笔颇为吸睛的$350,000 4房式成交;以其便利程度而言,这个价位并不高。步行即可到达 Mattar MRT(DTL),小贩中心与巴刹等生活配套也在不远处。前往 Macpherson MRT(DT/CC)也相当方便。大型商业枢纽 Paya Lebar 亦在附近。或许是因“老人区”的刻板印象所致,但就这个价格来看,它的确被低估了。 

其余榜单基本可谓“意料之中”。我们并不意外看到Bedok 与 Pasir Ris 属于更亲民的成熟地带。 

整体转售市场正放缓,但临近Prime与Plus模型项目的区域或可抵御动能减弱 

如上所述,缺乏Plus 与 Prime 限制,可能反而会令这些周边旧组屋在短期内价格上升。因此,在Queenstown 或 Tanjong Pagar 等传统热点区域,首购族或预算较紧的买家仍难觅机会。 

若你执意选择这类地段,或许只能暂时从较旧且非中心的组屋着手,日后再谋求升级至这些地段。 

在 Stacked,我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字,关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。

如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划,可以在这里预约 一对一咨询

如果你只是有个问题,或想分享你的想法,也欢迎写信给我们:stories@stackedhomes.com,我们会阅读每一封来信。

本文由生成式人工智能翻译。 点击此处阅读英文原文