百万新元HDB与私人公寓的价差：为何在2024年有人觉得它们“可负担”

这些抱怨你大概早已听腻了：既然组屋都要百万新元了，不如去买公寓；或者那个段子——20年后你可能得卖掉公寓才买得起一套组屋。只是，放在当前市场里，确实有人在小型大众化公寓与市中心大型转售组屋之间权衡取舍。更重要的是，观察百万组屋与公寓之间的价差，能为当下楼市提供一个颇有意思的视角——这正是我们所做的：

关于本次比较的若干说明

为便于比较，我们纳入了永久产权与租赁产权的非有地私人住宅。但将面积限定在105至122 sqm，这与大多数5-room组屋大致相当。这也是最具实际意义的区间，因为在平衡组屋与公寓之间时，买家多半会以这一尺寸作对照。

另请留意，我们在比较中将downtown core视同Central Area，将Kallang视同Kallang/Whampoa市镇；这与HDB指定的相应区域基本对应。

由于价差因地段而异，全岛平均意义不大。不如分区来看公寓与转售组屋之间的价差：

各规划区的公寓价格：

规划区	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Ang Mo Kio	$1,105,177	$1,212,472	$1,263,979	$1,291,438	$1,345,388	$1,591,630	$1,614,354	$1,777,192
Bedok	$1,200,531	$1,302,548	$1,348,427	$1,309,620	$1,426,684	$1,543,279	$1,711,868	$1,834,017
Bishan	$1,387,228	$1,535,762	$1,547,156	$1,527,516	$1,647,247	$1,831,505	$2,036,157	$2,053,447
Bukit Batok	$1,109,110	$1,184,060	$1,238,560	$1,191,977	$1,286,490	$1,428,529	$1,607,527	$1,663,696
Bukit Merah	$1,688,408	$2,035,871	$1,899,270	$1,888,441	$1,903,310	$2,043,473	$2,189,667	$2,175,220
Bukit Panjang	$1,156,833	$1,258,171	$1,313,907	$1,249,181	$1,375,819	$1,511,408	$1,729,123	$1,751,222
Bukit Timah	$1,482,891	$1,790,438	$1,734,932	$1,761,159	$1,837,957	$2,089,534	$2,132,393	$2,297,697
Clementi	$1,287,822	$1,351,153	$1,405,646	$1,414,179	$1,526,956	$1,679,437	$1,826,710	$1,885,085
Downtown Core	$2,096,807	$2,824,892	$2,967,518	$2,756,107	$2,604,322	$2,610,048	$2,361,547	$2,366,929
Geylang	$1,225,892	$1,353,941	$1,386,659	$1,386,743	$1,459,703	$1,575,961	$1,784,027	$1,801,212
Hougang	$1,106,317	$1,184,990	$1,220,660	$1,192,692	$1,231,367	$1,389,217	$1,529,692	$1,622,481
Jurong East	$1,059,243	$1,063,321	$1,078,423	$1,146,310	$1,164,452	$1,254,245	$1,340,468	$1,430,308
Kallang	$1,463,522	$1,592,777	$1,553,138	$1,520,383	$1,626,097	$1,781,432	$2,016,116	$2,039,187
Marine Parade	$1,991,455	$1,808,351	$1,867,660	$1,875,274	$1,949,187	$2,133,274	$2,360,631	$2,433,658
Pasir Ris	$964,002	$1,040,385	$1,058,081	$1,086,084	$1,142,595	$1,273,275	$1,377,973	$1,506,768
Punggol	$1,114,712	$1,181,877	$1,193,368	$1,188,321	$1,282,534	$1,463,804	$1,606,673	$1,690,481
Queenstown	$1,355,238	$1,533,111	$1,508,151	$1,482,627	$1,603,988	$1,758,458	$1,924,247	$2,010,186
Sengkang	$983,433	$1,083,712	$1,107,473	$1,083,389	$1,195,734	$1,414,615	$1,531,348	$1,604,445
Serangoon	$1,312,272	$1,429,349	$1,336,573	$1,331,998	$1,493,508	$1,693,383	$1,816,878	$2,049,059
Tampines	$979,830	$1,070,066	$1,086,597	$1,073,578	$1,167,539	$1,309,871	$1,462,188	$1,561,649
Toa Payoh	$1,456,660	$1,535,004	$1,583,056	$1,587,169	$1,691,029	$1,778,669	$2,000,539	$2,102,471
Woodlands	$815,790	$842,230	$817,198	$818,915	$953,585	$1,116,586	$1,213,753	$1,236,432
Yishun	$878,467	$952,057	$977,649	$979,125	$1,059,583	$1,211,410	$1,345,739	$1,425,399

各HDB市镇的转售组屋价格

HDB 市镇	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Ang Mo Kio				$1,019,444	$1,050,978	$1,055,593	$1,085,082	$1,109,858
Bedok						$1,050,259	$1,030,543	$1,064,185
Bishan	$1,036,457	$1,052,241	$1,043,818	$1,097,341	$1,105,178	$1,151,658	$1,143,548	$1,211,908
Bukit Batok						$1,005,000	$1,031,722	$1,020,267
Bukit Merah		$1,056,127	$1,074,378	$1,062,607	$1,086,887	$1,088,533	$1,134,730	$1,125,401
Bukit Panjang							$1,020,000	$1,003,894
Bukit Timah	$1,016,944	$1,032,000	$1,019,333		$1,086,692	$1,205,658	$1,187,571	$1,213,334
Clementi	$1,030,000	$1,068,000	$1,038,000	$1,012,519	$1,041,489	$1,078,318	$1,110,416	$1,126,706
Central Area	$1,065,400	$1,066,315	$1,065,564	$1,114,231	$1,091,769	$1,180,731	$1,249,096	$1,343,227
Geylang				$1,008,888		$1,032,984	$1,047,318	$1,045,185
Hougang		$1,000,000				$1,052,778	$1,040,200	$1,058,035
Jurong East						$1,000,000	$1,010,667	$1,033,972
Kallang/Whampoa	$1,002,500	$1,069,568	$1,109,000	$1,120,000	$1,117,563	$1,104,949	$1,088,081	$1,067,157
Marine Parade						$1,039,629	$1,011,778	$1,157,972
Pasir Ris						$1,188,444	$1,000,000	$1,020,750
Punggol						$1,198,000	$1,185,000	$1,184,256
Queenstown	$1,058,200	$1,055,681	$1,070,876	$1,053,563	$1,085,927	$1,136,947	$1,106,245	$1,123,915
Sengkang								$1,001,667
Serangoon	$1,000,000				$1,024,072	$1,061,659	$1,067,059	$1,108,994
Tampines						$1,007,051	$1,012,500	$1,036,289
Toa Payoh	$1,043,967	$1,059,876	$1,055,361	$1,060,825	$1,091,214	$1,118,003	$1,126,720	$1,132,377
Woodlands						$1,029,422	$1,047,349	$1,039,400
Yishun						$1,035,878	$1,062,450	$1,048,571

HDB与公寓的整体价差 

有一个也许不那么意外的发现：在大多数区域，价差正在扩大。这意味着，尽管出现了越来越多的百万组屋，私人住宅的涨幅其实更快。

转售组屋价格在疫情期间确曾强劲上扬，但这主要源于公共与私人住房同时遭遇的供应紧缩。因此公寓价格也与HDB同步走高。

如果只将租赁产权公寓与百万组屋进行比较，会如何？

有人主张应将组屋（99年租赁）与租赁产权公寓对照，这有一定道理。此外，多数HDB升级者考虑的多是OCR公寓，而这类项目几乎清一色为租赁产权。于是我们单独来看：

各区租赁产权公寓价格

规划区	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Ang Mo Kio	$1,035,770	$1,100,661	$1,154,970	$1,174,997	$1,286,831	$1,531,954	$1,546,521	$1,672,214
Bedok	$1,148,463	$1,250,803	$1,287,739	$1,254,329	$1,336,975	$1,488,645	$1,633,841	$1,798,959
Bishan	$1,389,956	$1,532,500	$1,541,443	$1,508,634	$1,645,428	$1,827,812	$2,038,676	$2,049,629
Bukit Batok	$943,377	$981,229	$996,559	$991,456	$1,036,899	$1,199,318	$1,319,314	$1,368,433
Bukit Merah	$1,664,885	$2,028,103	$1,897,815	$1,868,613	$1,893,194	$2,021,212	$2,131,866	$2,174,616
Bukit Panjang	$1,122,537	$1,290,288	$1,285,115	$1,225,956	$1,335,684	$1,484,975	$1,658,649	$1,697,240
Bukit Timah	$1,274,358	$1,677,797	$1,587,194	$1,597,192	$1,705,691	$1,919,225	$2,040,807	$2,260,300
Clementi	$1,186,615	$1,242,781	$1,253,092	$1,297,950	$1,436,218	$1,579,595	$1,761,131	$1,778,606
Downtown Core	$2,096,807	$2,865,163	$2,967,518	$2,768,022	$2,604,322	$2,610,048	$2,361,547	$2,366,929
Geylang	$1,284,423	$1,326,778	$1,447,559	$1,361,883	$1,502,007	$1,612,841	$1,922,804	$1,889,396
Hougang	$1,075,584	$1,122,130	$1,195,157	$1,153,593	$1,191,817	$1,347,973	$1,504,341	$1,625,283
Jurong East	$1,059,243	$1,063,321	$1,078,423	$1,146,310	$1,164,452	$1,254,245	$1,340,468	$1,430,308
Kallang	$1,366,800	$1,613,040	$1,663,533	$1,428,732	$1,505,094	$1,663,155	$1,949,323	$1,992,222
Marine Parade	$1,640,231	$1,801,333	$1,607,600	$1,793,923	$1,760,533	$2,059,643	$2,409,375	$2,508,333
Pasir Ris	$958,433	$1,031,474	$1,048,713	$1,098,550	$1,141,226	$1,274,187	$1,381,015	$1,505,301
Punggol	$1,114,712	$1,181,877	$1,193,368	$1,188,321	$1,282,534	$1,463,804	$1,606,673	$1,690,481
Queenstown	$1,357,335	$1,486,123	$1,489,264	$1,511,438	$1,623,597	$1,774,426	$1,947,486	$2,005,017
Sengkang	$983,433	$1,083,712	$1,107,473	$1,083,389	$1,195,734	$1,414,615	$1,531,348	$1,604,445
Serangoon	$1,200,930	$1,332,762	$1,284,959	$1,295,094	$1,444,284	$1,627,018	$1,806,951	$1,993,613
Tampines	$962,129	$1,053,295	$1,069,145	$1,064,425	$1,156,464	$1,303,321	$1,458,551	$1,566,037
Toa Payoh	$1,439,856	$1,551,907	$1,555,316	$1,569,696	$1,698,573	$1,768,408	$1,997,751	$2,095,462
Woodlands	$815,790	$842,230	$817,198	$818,915	$953,585	$1,116,586	$1,213,753	$1,236,432
Yishun	$878,467	$941,947	$977,649	$975,983	$1,051,478	$1,211,515	$1,345,739	$1,422,760

仅与租赁产权公寓对比的各区价差

请注意，Orchard、Marina等核心地段的租赁产权公寓数量较少，可能会扭曲中区物业的整体图景。

结果并无二致：过去几年里，百万组屋与公寓之间的价差持续扩大。尤其在2023与2024之间，若以租赁产权物业为语境，这一道差距拉得更开。

这或许解释了近期百万组屋的频现

设想一位HDB升级者卖掉了自住房并获得可观利润。但由于价差扩大，他们仍难以从容地升级至公寓（至少达不到其心仪的面积与品质）。

在不一定能买到Executive Condos（EC）的情况下，这些买家的下一步或许就是选择更高端的组屋。与其为一套大众化的OCR公寓背负更大的贷款，他们可能会转而关注maisonettes（复式组屋）、jumbo flats（特大组屋），或位于Queenstown、Bishan、Toa Payoh等黄金地段的单位。

更大的空间与便利的地段，足以弥补配套设施的缺失；而更低的总价也意味着更小的负债压力。

顺带一提，价差最低的似乎在Woodlands！

原因尚难以定论，但可能与Woodlands较多大面积组屋有关。该区存在不少adjoined flats（并排合并单位）、executive flats（行政式组屋）、jumbo units（特大单位）等。与本区相对更便宜的公寓相比，这或许能解释为何价差较小。

我们也附上一些关于户型面积的数据：

我们取用了各年的成交组屋平均面积。整体看来，2023/24的平均面积在多数情况下更小。这也可能是价差扩大的另一个原因。还值得注意的是，Woodlands的成交单位面积变化不大，2024年录得的平均值较前几年更低。

基于上述观察，我们大致可得出两点结论：

第一，2024年升级到公寓更难了，且这一趋势已有几年之久。这可能促使更多升级者转向更大或更中心地段的组屋，而非把公寓视为置业旅程中的下一站。短中期内，这或将支撑转售组屋价格，并带来更多百万组屋。

第二，这对大多数HDB买家影响仍然有限，近期的降温措施亦有所体现。话虽如此，舆论观感仍是问题——这些标题每天都在刷屏。正如我们之前所言，这类价格最终会在大众心中形成黏性的价格锚点；或许用不了多久，我们就会看到新加坡每一个市镇都踏入百万HDB俱乐部。

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