Why Some Central Area HDB Flats Struggle To Maintain Their Premium

Public housing flats in the Central area are pretty rare, not only in Singapore but also in most global gateway cities. As subsidised public housing, the proximity of flats like these challenges prime district condos in terms of convenience and accessibility.

But in Singapore, they come with a unique set of tradeoffs, such as age and lease decay.The new Prime classification flats come with restrictions such as a 10-year Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP).

In theory, Central area flats should not easily lose their premium pricing, since there are no other public housing alternatives that can boast the convenience and appeal of a central location.

But we see that this does happen, and this week we took a deep dive into why some central area flats don’t maintain their higher pricing.

What we’ll examine in this study

By Central Area, we’re referring to HDB flats in Rochor, Outram, Marina East, Marina South, Newton, Orchard, River Valley, and the Singapore River precinct.

For our analysis, we’ll focus specifically on four-room flats in the Central Area. This is the most ubiquitous and, hence, a significant representative housing type. Other flat types typically see very low transaction volumes, and occasional outliers – like one or two unusually high or low prices – would create a distorted perspective.

Four-room flats also exhibit the clearest behavioural reversal in our dataset. From 2014 to 2019, most flats in this area were selling at a premium before seeing weakening prices from 2020 to 2025. This makes them a revealing case study for how lease decay evolves.

What happened to flats in the Central Area that lost their price premium?

Here’s a quick snapshot of how their prices changed: