自新冠疫情以来，转售组屋价格一直处于高位，但或许终于开始趋于平稳。尽管屋主们一直为强劲的升值而喝彩，转售价对首次购屋者或无法等待漫长 BTO 建造期的伴侣而言却颇为头疼。基于此，我们整理出一份清单，列出转售价出现回落迹象的地区。
数据采集：我们查看了自 2023 年 4 月起的 HDB 交易，并计算其对应的 $PSF 值。随后对这些 $PSF 值进行对比，计算涨跌幅，取平均后进行排名。
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
如果你有类似的困惑，我们提供结构化的一对一咨询，帮你全面梳理财务状况、购房目标与市场选项——客观分析，不带立场。
没有任何义务，只是让你更清晰。
点击了解更多 这里。
屋龄不超过 10 年的转售组屋
| 城镇 | 2023-05 | 2023-06 | 2023-07 | 2023-08 | 2023-09 | 2023-10 | 2023-11 | 2023-12 | 2024-01 | 2024-02 | 2024-03 | 2024-04 | 平均 |
| 三巴旺 | -2.2% | 0.8% | -0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% | -1.3% | -0.6% | 0.3% | 2.2% | -5.6% | -0.3% |
| 武吉巴督 | 0.9% | 4.4% | -4.2% | -0.1% | -0.8% | 1.5% | -2.0% | -2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | -3.7% | -0.2% |
| 义顺 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 1.8% | -1.4% | 0.8% | -0.5% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 1.7% | -4.0% | -0.1% |
| 红山 | -7.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | -2.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | -4.9% | 6.5% | -2.3% | -1.8% | 3.1% | -3.0% | 0.0% |
| 后港 | 4.2% | -6.3% | 9.5% | -3.2% | -5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 2.4% | -0.9% | -2.1% | 0.2% |
| 盛港 | -2.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | -2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | -3.9% | 5.5% | -2.2% | 1.8% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 裕廊西 | -6.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | -1.1% | -1.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | -8.7% | -0.8% | 8.2% | 0.3% |
| 白沙 | 9.1% | -14.3% | 6.9% | 1.4% | -0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | -4.1% | -1.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% | ||
| 勿洛 | 6.6% | 2.8% | -1.4% | -3.6% | -1.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | -5.7% | 6.8% | 1.4% | -5.9% | -1.3% | 0.4% |
| 金文泰 | 0.8% | 4.4% | -2.2% | -2.0% | -2.9% | 6.6% | -7.9% | 11.1% | -4.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||
| 榜鹅 | 1.1% | 1.2% | -0.8% | 2.9% | -3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | -0.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | -0.4% | -2.0% | 0.5% |
| 蔡厝港 | 2.2% | -0.9% | 2.7% | -1.8% | -0.5% | 2.1% | -3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | -2.5% | 5.0% | -0.7% | 0.6% |
| 女皇镇 | 1.9% | 0.8% | 5.6% | -2.2% | 0.8% | 3.2% | -6.8% | 6.1% | 0.1% | 2.2% | -5.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 宏茂桥 | 9.5% | 0.1% | -8.5% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | -6.6% | 6.0% | -1.7% | -1.2% | 1.5% | -0.8% | 0.7% |
| 兀兰 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | -1.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 2.2% | -2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 大巴窑 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 14.3% | -17.3% | 2.1% | 5.0% | -5.9% | -1.7% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| 淡滨尼 | 2.3% | 7.6% | -6.5% | 1.3% | 4.5% | -5.2% | 7.7% | -3.4% | 3.2% | -2.4% | 1.6% | -0.4% | 0.9% |
| 武吉班让 | 7.5% | 5.8% | -7.5% | -3.3% | 6.4% | -2.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | -3.2% | -2.0% | -0.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 加冷/黄埔 | 9.3% | -8.3% | 10.3% | 0.2% | -5.8% | 20.0% | -15.4% | 7.0% | 2.0% | -3.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
一些值得注意的细节
这一屋龄段的价格并未出现太多回落，即便跌幅最大的三巴旺也仅下滑 0.28 per cent，坦白说可以忽略不计。
这并不意外，因为屋龄 5 年（即刚过 MOP） 的单位往往溢价较高：既几乎没有租约贬值问题，又可拎包入住；鉴于单位较新，甚至可能无需装修。
令人意外的是，三巴旺在此处位居榜首，毕竟它在过去几年以尖锐的涨价而知名。考虑到其被视为年轻家庭社区，我们原本也会预期三巴旺取得更强的涨幅。但再次强调，- 0.28 per cent 的价格波动并不显著；我们不会过度解读。
武吉巴督与义顺紧随其后，但这些回落同样难以带来实际的价格优势。若你想在当前市场买到更便宜的转售组屋，很可能需要把目光转向屋龄更久的单位。
屋龄 11 至 20 年的转售组屋
| 城镇 | 2023-05 | 2023-06 | 2023-07 | 2023-08 | 2023-09 | 2023-10 | 2023-11 | 2023-12 | 2024-01 | 2024-02 | 2024-03 | 2024-04 | 平均 |
| 裕廊西 | -13.9% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 8.8% | -9.4% | -5.3% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -10.8% | 14.1% | -0.6% | |
| 义顺 | 1.8% | -1.3% | -2.3% | 5.8% | -5.3% | 0.4% | -0.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | -12.7% | -0.1% | |
| 榜鹅 | 1.4% | -0.3% | 1.9% | -0.4% | 2.6% | -3.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -6.8% | 0.2% |
| 加冷/黄埔 | -0.6% | 0.7% | -1.3% | 5.2% | 0.7% | -4.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | -9.2% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| 盛港 | -0.3% | -2.4% | 0.0% | 4.5% | -2.6% | 6.2% | -2.2% | -0.4% | 0.3% | -1.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| 勿洛 | -11.6% | 11.8% | -15.8% | -11.8% | 19.8% | -8.3% | 12.7% | -3.2% | 4.3% | -13.6% | 25.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| 女皇镇 | 1.7% | -2.5% | 11.6% | -5.5% | -6.8% | 10.9% | -6.4% | 0.3% | 6.3% | -1.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 红山 | -1.7% | 5.2% | -4.2% | 2.3% | -2.5% | -5.9% | 10.2% | -7.8% | 7.9% | -2.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 1.0% |
| 芽笼 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | -3.2% | 0.5% | -1.7% | 2.9% | -0.3% | 5.0% | -4.4% | 1.1% | ||
| 大巴窑 | 3.5% | 7.9% | -6.8% | -3.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | -0.8% | 2.8% | -1.1% | 2.5% | -2.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| 三巴旺 | -0.8% | -1.6% | -4.1% | 7.7% | -3.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 8.7% | -2.6% | 5.4% | 1.6% | ||
| 中央区 | 2.8% | -8.5% | 14.6% | -4.1% | 5.0% | 0.0% | -8.5% | 7.8% | 14.9% | 2.7% |
一些值得注意的细节
仅有两个城镇出现价格回落：裕廊西与义顺。总体而言，裕廊西仍是最实惠的 HDB 城镇之一——注意，这也是迄今尚未看到有单位成交达 $1 million 的最后四个 HDB 城镇之一。
不过这种情况或许维持不了太久，因为裕廊西部分 5 房式单位正逐步逼近 $850,000。但若你并不寻找特别类型（如 DBSS 组屋），诸如 Boon Lay 或 Jurong West Street 61 等地仍有 5 房式单位的总价远低于 $600,000，因此这里依旧是最实惠的区域之一。
裕廊西也可能受“对比效应”所累：过去几年裕廊东区域发生了剧烈的蜕变，使得裕廊西显得像其“穷亲戚”。裕廊东被视为新加坡的“第二个 CBD”，而裕廊西则更多被看作仍偏工业或“ulu”的地方，亦是不少工业园区员工租住的区域。
屋龄 21 至 30 年的转售组屋
| 城镇 | 2023-05 | 2023-06 | 2023-07 | 2023-08 | 2023-09 | 2023-10 | 2023-11 | 2023-12 | 2024-01 | 2024-02 | 2024-03 | 2024-04 | 平均 |
| 宏茂桥 | -12.5% | 6.6% | -16.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | -12.9% | 16.2% | -26.9% | -3.7% | |||
| 红山 | -6.3% | 12.3% | -9.6% | 2.8% | -7.3% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | -7.4% | -13.6% | -0.4% |
| 武吉巴督 | -0.3% | -2.8% | 10.7% | -6.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -0.6% | 5.3% | -7.5% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 后港 | -0.5% | 4.0% | -2.4% | -2.7% | 8.5% | -3.6% | -4.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | -2.8% | -2.2% | 0.0% |
| 裕廊西 | 1.1% | 1.9% | -0.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | -0.2% | 4.3% | -1.5% | 0.3% | -6.9% | 0.0% |
| 武吉班让 | 1.4% | -0.9% | 8.0% | -7.1% | -6.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | -3.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 榜鹅 | 1.5% | 2.0% | -2.4% | 0.2% | -5.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.3% | -1.7% | 0.0% | -3.4% | 0.1% |
| 兀兰 | 0.6% | 1.9% | -2.5% | 3.0% | -0.3% | -0.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | -2.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | -4.6% | 0.2% |
| 蔡厝港 | 3.1% | 0.7% | -4.2% | 4.0% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 1.8% | -1.0% | 1.2% | -2.2% | 3.2% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 女皇镇 | 3.0% | 6.7% | -9.1% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | -9.8% | -2.1% | 6.1% | -5.3% | 0.3% | ||
| 淡滨尼 | 0.1% | 1.5% | -2.6% | 7.0% | -1.6% | -4.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | -1.1% | 3.1% | -1.8% | -2.3% | 0.4% |
| 白沙 | -0.2% | 1.5% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | -6.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| 盛港 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | -1.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| 三巴旺 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | -1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -1.1% | 1.3% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| 裕廊东 | 2.5% | -0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 10.4% | -14.9% | 10.0% | 1.7% | |||
| 加冷/黄埔 | 2.2% | -5.5% | 22.7% | -17.3% | -2.9% | 9.9% | 13.9% | -3.5% | -7.5% | -10.5% | 48.9% | -27.2% | 1.9% |
| 大巴窑 | 17.3% | 12.7% | -7.2% | 11.8% | -10.6% | 5.1% | -12.6% | 7.9% | 12.9% | -3.6% | -3.5% | 2.7% |
这是我们发现跌幅最大的区段，且出乎意料地发生在宏茂桥。无论价格如何回落，这里依旧是非常成熟的社区；因此即便最近有所下调，靠近碧山或实龙岗边界的 5 房式单位，总价仍可达到 $870,000 或更高。
虽然红山、武吉巴督与后港也出现价格回落，但与我们在宏茂桥观察到的情况相比，其幅度都远不及。
屋龄 30 年及以上的转售组屋
| 城镇 | 2023-05 | 2023-06 | 2023-07 | 2023-08 | 2023-09 | 2023-10 | 2023-11 | 2023-12 | 2024-01 | 2024-02 | 2024-03 | 2024-04 | 平均 |
| 女皇镇 | -15.6% | 2.0% | 13.1% | -3.6% | -11.0% | 1.0% | 11.1% | -4.6% | -8.9% | 12.5% | -16.5% | -1.9% | |
| 马林百列 | -6.8% | 7.6% | -5.4% | 1.7% | -8.4% | 16.0% | -7.5% | 1.3% | -2.9% | -1.6% | 0.3% | -0.5% | |
| 芽笼 | 2.8% | -2.8% | 3.2% | -4.8% | -2.6% | 7.3% | 2.9% | -7.2% | 3.5% | -0.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | |
| 裕廊西 | 4.2% | -0.8% | -0.2% | -1.0% | 5.1% | -4.0% | -3.0% | 4.8% | -2.2% | 4.6% | -4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 淡滨尼 | 0.3% | 2.0% | -1.5% | -0.2% | 1.8% | -1.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | -0.6% | 0.4% |
| 武吉班让 | -0.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | -1.3% | 1.0% | -4.0% | 3.3% | -0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 实龙岗 | -2.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 4.4% | -3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | -0.4% | -6.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| 勿洛 | 1.1% | 0.0% | -2.4% | 5.8% | -1.6% | -1.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | -2.1% | 2.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| 金文泰 | 2.2% | -1.3% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | -8.2% | 3.5% | -3.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | -1.1% | 0.5% |
| 义顺 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | -0.7% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | 3.6% | 0.7% | -1.4% | 3.2% | -1.6% | 0.5% |
| 武吉巴督 | 1.8% | -3.0% | 1.8% | -0.6% | -2.2% | 6.2% | -3.7% | 0.1% | -1.1% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| 宏茂桥 | -0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | -2.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 蔡厝港 | 5.3% | -1.6% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | -1.3% | -1.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | -2.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 后港 | -2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 白沙 | 5.3% | -0.9% | -0.1% | 0.7% | -1.2% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | -1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | -0.7% | 0.7% |
| 红山 | -7.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | -0.6% | 5.8% | -8.6% | 8.9% | -10.5% | 7.4% | 13.8% | 1.0% | ||
| 加冷/黄埔 | 6.0% | 0.6% | 12.8% | -9.9% | 1.0% | -6.2% | 16.0% | -8.8% | 1.6% | -2.1% | 5.4% | -2.6% | 1.1% |
| 裕廊东 | 4.9% | -6.4% | 0.9% | 4.0% | -5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | -3.2% | -2.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 1.2% |
| 大巴窑 | 11.5% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -7.6% | 12.2% | -13.0% | 5.2% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | -0.6% | 8.0% | 1.3% |
| 兀兰 | 0.7% | 6.1% | 0.7% | -3.3% | -1.9% | 6.7% | -2.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | -3.8% | 7.8% | 1.4% |
| 碧山 | 5.6% | -3.7% | 5.7% | -2.2% | -2.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | -5.6% | 7.0% | -0.5% | -5.1% | 21.7% | 2.1% |
| 中央区 | -14.8% | 13.9% | 23.0% | -14.2% | -13.2% | -4.9% | -6.7% | 13.7% | 2.2% | -13.3% | 10.5% | 30.0% | 2.2% |
此处仅有两个城镇的转售价出现回落：女皇镇与马林百列。近期女皇镇的供应有所增加——2 月这里有一次 BTO 推出（原 Tanglin Halt），而 6 月稍后还将再次推出（地点更是在 Holland V）。但也正因此，这里的转售价回落或许难以持续。
较新的项目将纳入Prime Location Housing 模式，因此会附带一些不利之处——例如 10 年 MOP——而周边转售组屋则没有这些限制。也不排除这样一种可能：若未能抽到 BTO，申购者会把注意力转向该区内其他转售选择，不论屋龄。这或有助于维持或拉升此处价格。
至于马林百列，0.52 per cent 的回落并不算大变化。不过，你或许需要关注靠近 Katong/Parkway Parade 一带的组屋——即将开通的 Marine Parade MRT station 将显著改变该区的通达性。这或许足以抵消这里单位的屋龄因素。
尽管没有出现大幅下跌，对买家而言仍可保持乐观
虽然没有出现大幅回落，但也请留意涨幅：即便在中央区，这个转售组屋的“塔尖”，价格也仅分别上涨 2.19 per cent（屋龄 30+ 年）与 2.67 per cent（屋龄 11 至 20 年）。
与 COVID-19 之后的那段时期相比，如今涨势明显放缓，转售组屋价格的动能有所减弱。随着更多已完工单位进入市场，今年稍后或将出现进一步的回调。
从更长远看，还需考虑 HDB 在 2022 年建造了超过 20,000 套组屋——这是自 2017 年以来的最高产量。这些单位约三年后将进入转售市场，因此转售价的上行节奏很可能进一步放缓。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。点击此处阅读英文原文。
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