获取公寓的一条“屡试不爽”的路径，往往是先从一套HDB BTO组屋开始，尽可能多储蓄，等到时机成熟再转售赚取一笔差价，然后升级到私人公寓；或者至少是EC。不过在当下私人住宅价格屡创新高的情况下，这条老路还行得通吗？我们以2024年的新加坡楼市为背景，来看看升级到公寓的现实处境。
免责声明：由于当前仍处于2024年年初，我们将参考2023年的价格来判断私人住宅的可负担性。
编辑注：本文已更新，反映在购买新EC时适用MSR的情况。
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
如果你有类似的困惑，我们提供结构化的一对一咨询，帮你全面梳理财务状况、购房目标与市场选项——客观分析，不带立场。
没有任何义务，只是让你更清晰。
点击了解更多 这里。
情景一：升级到三卧室
大多数HDB升级族都是以家庭为单位，因此袖珍单位或小型两卧室并不实用。可以公平地说，他们至少需要一套三卧室的公寓单位，通常面积在900至1,100平方英尺之间。也就是说，与一套4房式组屋（顺带一提，大约是970平方英尺）的面积差距不至于过大。确实也有更小的三卧室公寓，但这类单位的普通卧室往往仅能放下一张单人床（更别提杂物/家务间或后阳台了）。
在这里，一个选项是考虑EC。
首先，我们来看一看升级族在转售一套典型4房式组屋时，可能获得的售价。在本例中，我们假设他们是在2013年通过BTO购买4房式组屋。我们假设平均建设期为4年，然后在取得钥匙后居住10年再出售升级。这也是我们最常见的升级时间线：
| BTO Name | 4 Room | Built Year |
| Fernvale Crest | $226,500 | 2013 |
| Boon Lay Meadow | $244,500 | 2013 |
| Fernvale Palms | $238,000 | 2013 |
| Punggol Ripples | $277,000 | 2013 |
| Punggol Sails | $277,000 | 2013 |
| Segar Grove | $230,000 | 2013 |
| Montreal Dale | $248,500 | 2013 |
| Buangkok Vale | $259,500 | 2013 |
| Limbang Green | $252,000 | 2013 |
| Punggol Crest | $274,000 | 2013 |
| Treegrove@Woodlands | $258,000 | 2013 |
| Fernvale Ridge | $243,500 | 2013 |
| Sembawang RiverLodge | $240,000 | 2013 |
| Boon Lay Grove | $263,000 | 2013 |
| Floral Spring | $240,500 | 2013 |
| Fernvale Foliage | $247,500 | 2013 |
| Rivervale Arc | $231,500 | 2013 |
| Yishun Riverwalk | $241,000 | 2013 |
| Anchorvale Horizon | $310,500 | 2013 |
| Orchid Spring @ Yishun | $254,000 | 2013 |
| Segar Vale | $255,000 | 2013 |
| Montreal Ville | $282,500 | 2013 |
| Anchorvale Isles | $291,500 | 2013 |
以2013年新推出的组屋计，组屋价格大约在$256,000左右。
| Project | Median Price |
| Anchorvale Horizon | $592,500 |
| Anchorvale Isles | $602,500 |
| Boon Lay Grove | $548,500 |
| Boon Lay Meadow | $525,000 |
| Buangkok Vale | $562,500 |
| Fernvale Crest | $550,000 |
| Fernvale Foliage | $575,888 |
| Fernvale Palms | $565,000 |
| Fernvale Ridge | $540,000 |
| Floral Spring | $525,000 |
| Limbang Green | $500,000 |
| Montreal Dale | $522,000 |
| Montreal Ville | $525,000 |
| Orchid Spring @ Yishun | $525,500 |
| Punggol Crest | $581,888 |
| Punggol Ripples | $608,000 |
| Punggol Sails | $633,000 |
| Rivervale Arc | $532,500 |
| Segar Grove | $527,500 |
| Segar Vale | $517,944 |
| Sembawang RiverLodge | $530,000 |
| Treegrove@Woodlands | $576,944 |
| Yishun Riverwalk | $536,000 |
| Median | $540,000 |
约十年后，相同的4房式组屋在转售市场上可达约$540,000。
如果把这套组屋卖掉去升级，我们来看一下涉及的数字。请注意，以下为简化起见，未计入CPF的使用（因为若用CPF支付过组屋，卖家需要归还已动用的CPF本息，这会使得出售所得的现金结余减少）。
| Item | Amount |
| Purchase Price | $256,000 |
| Downpayment (10%) | $25,600 |
| HDB Loan Taken | $230,400 |
| Loan remaining after 10 years | $164,036 |
| Item | Amount |
| Sale Price | $540,000 |
| Less loan remaining | -$164,036 |
| Less agent fees | -$10,800 |
| Cash Remaining | $365,164 |
$365,000可用于支持他们购买EC。这对于EC的首付款非常关键。
（另一个重要提醒：EC不提供HDB贷款，必须使用银行贷款，因此EC的首5%必须以现金支付——这不同于HDB，后者首付款在某些情况下可全部用CPF支付）。
接下来，我们假设这对升级族的每月合计收入为$10,394（假设双职家庭各自的收入中位数为每月$5,197。若您不同意，请别怪我们，这是新闻报道中的数据）。
若他们可取得最长30年贷款年限，并考虑TDSR上限（这会将每月总贷款还款额（含其他债务）限制为月收入的55%），他们可为购买EC借到$1,108,667；这意味着其EC的最高可承受总价约为$1,478,223。
（注：我们假设他们没有其他债务负担，如车贷、信贷等，否则会降低其TDSR上限。另外，他们上述测算已接近极限。实际操作中，我们建议将债务控制在月收入约30%左右，若可以请多储蓄。）
他们出售所得的现金（$365,164）大致足以覆盖EC的其余首付款（使用银行贷款时，最低首付款为25%）。
基于以上条件，他们能买到哪些三卧室的EC？
| Project Name | Min Price | Avg Price | Max Price | Shortfall/Excess From Min Price | Shortfall/Excess From Avg Price |
| 1 CANBERRA | $1,050,000 | $1,172,273 | $1,220,000 | $428,223 | $305,950 |
| ARC AT TAMPINES | $1,125,000 | $1,305,407 | $1,533,000 | $353,223 | $172,816 |
| AUSTVILLE RESIDENCES | $1,200,000 | $1,302,533 | $1,500,000 | $278,223 | $175,690 |
| BELLEWATERS | $1,200,000 | $1,345,755 | $1,458,000 | $278,223 | $132,468 |
| BELLEWOODS | $1,090,000 | $1,212,727 | $1,330,000 | $388,223 | $265,496 |
| BELYSA | $1,088,000 | $1,302,750 | $1,418,000 | $390,223 | $175,473 |
| ECOPOLITAN | $1,100,000 | $1,275,935 | $1,400,000 | $378,223 | $202,288 |
| ESPARINA RESIDENCES | $1,450,000 | $1,607,894 | $1,850,000 | $28,223 | -$129,671 |
| FORESTVILLE | $1,150,000 | $1,194,667 | $1,240,000 | $328,223 | $283,556 |
| HERON BAY | $1,150,000 | $1,287,000 | $1,338,000 | $328,223 | $191,223 |
| INZ RESIDENCE | $1,250,000 | $1,250,000 | $1,250,000 | $228,223 | $228,223 |
| LAKE LIFE | $1,313,100 | $1,446,748 | $1,588,000 | $165,123 | $31,475 |
| LUSH ACRES | $1,150,000 | $1,289,654 | $1,500,000 | $328,223 | $188,569 |
| NUOVO | $1,150,000 | $1,150,000 | $1,150,000 | $328,223 | $328,223 |
| PARC LIFE | $1,060,000 | $1,309,942 | $1,490,000 | $418,223 | $168,281 |
| PARK GREEN | $1,155,000 | $1,155,000 | $1,155,000 | $323,223 | $323,223 |
| PRIVE | $1,300,000 | $1,441,158 | $1,658,000 | $178,223 | $37,065 |
| RIVERPARC RESIDENCE | $1,233,000 | $1,349,991 | $1,500,000 | $245,223 | $128,232 |
| SEA HORIZON | $1,270,000 | $1,305,000 | $1,380,000 | $208,223 | $173,223 |
| SIGNATURE AT YISHUN | $1,128,000 | $1,259,936 | $1,408,888 | $350,223 | $218,287 |
| SIMEI GREEN CONDOMINIUM | $960,000 | $985,000 | $1,010,000 | $518,223 | $493,223 |
| SKYPARK RESIDENCES | $1,250,000 | $1,407,315 | $1,488,888 | $228,223 | $70,908 |
| SOL ACRES | $1,150,000 | $1,351,581 | $1,568,000 | $328,223 | $126,642 |
| THE AMORE | $1,140,000 | $1,285,998 | $1,466,888 | $338,223 | $192,225 |
| THE BROWNSTONE | $1,150,000 | $1,266,253 | $1,560,000 | $328,223 | $211,970 |
| THE CANOPY | $970,000 | $1,060,833 | $1,260,000 | $508,223 | $417,390 |
| THE CRITERION | $1,062,670 | $1,209,432 | $1,385,000 | $415,553 | $268,791 |
| THE EDEN AT TAMPINES | $1,110,000 | $1,110,000 | $1,110,000 | $368,223 | $368,223 |
| THE ESPARIS | $1,160,000 | $1,160,000 | $1,160,000 | $318,223 | $318,223 |
| THE RAINFOREST | $1,178,888 | $1,378,148 | $1,550,000 | $299,335 | $100,075 |
| THE TAMPINES TRILLIANT | $1,398,000 | $1,523,164 | $1,700,000 | $80,223 | -$44,941 |
| THE TERRACE | $1,120,000 | $1,350,976 | $1,588,888 | $358,223 | $127,247 |
| THE TOPIARY | $1,020,000 | $1,290,413 | $1,430,888 | $458,223 | $187,810 |
| THE VALES | $1,110,000 | $1,325,196 | $1,499,000 | $368,223 | $153,027 |
| THE VISIONAIRE | $1,030,000 | $1,312,708 | $1,500,000 | $448,223 | $165,515 |
| TREASURE CREST | $1,270,000 | $1,469,645 | $1,688,000 | $208,223 | $8,578 |
| TWIN FOUNTAINS | $1,270,000 | $1,278,750 | $1,290,000 | $208,223 | $199,473 |
| TWIN WATERFALLS | $1,175,000 | $1,373,542 | $1,568,000 | $303,223 | $104,681 |
| WANDERVALE | $1,220,000 | $1,406,828 | $1,580,000 | $258,223 | $71,395 |
| WATERBAY | $1,320,000 | $1,379,200 | $1,440,000 | $158,223 | $99,023 |
| WATERCOLOURS | $1,000,000 | $1,164,111 | $1,350,000 | $478,223 | $314,112 |
| WATERWOODS | $1,285,000 | $1,358,571 | $1,420,000 | $193,223 | $119,652 |
| WHITEWATER | $1,068,000 | $1,162,286 | $1,208,000 | $410,223 | $315,937 |
| YEW MEI GREEN | $955,000 | $1,010,296 | $1,040,888 | $523,223 | $467,927 |
| Total | $955,000 | $1,331,444 | $1,850,000 | $523,223 | $146,779 |
以上可选项目相当多，所以跨入EC并非不可行；不过再次建议先多储蓄，不要把TDSR推到极限。
那么升级到完全私宅公寓呢？
坦率说，2024年要做到这一点更难了，我们必须将范围限定在转售公寓才更现实。原因我们会在下文解释。就目前而言，以下是我们能找到的最便宜的转售三卧室：
| Project Name | Transacted Price ($) | Area (SQFT) | bedroom | Unit Price ($ PSF) | Sale Date | Tenure |
| HOUGANG GREEN | $900,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 774 | 3 Jan 2023 | 99 yrs from 01/12/1994 |
| HOUGANG GREEN | $918,000 | 1,130 | 3 | 812 | 21 Aug 2023 | 99 yrs from 01/12/1994 |
| ROSEWOOD SUITES | $980,000 | 1,098 | 3 | 893 | 12 Jan 2023 | 99 yrs from 25/02/2008 |
| CRYSTAL LODGE | $980,000 | 1,152 | 3 | 851 | 17 May 2023 | Freehold |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,040,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 895 | 30 Jan 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| EVERGREEN PARK | $1,050,000 | 1,173 | 3 | 895 | 3 Mar 2023 | 99 yrs from 01/10/1995 |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,050,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 903 | 7 Jun 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,050,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 903 | 29 Dec 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| SKIES MILTONIA | $1,058,800 | 969 | 3 | 1,093 | 13 Feb 2023 | 99 yrs from 20/02/2012 |
| SYMPHONY SUITES | $1,058,888 | 915 | 3 | 1,157 | 2 Mar 2023 | 99 yrs from 10/06/2014 |
| FLO RESIDENCE | $1,060,000 | 926 | 3 | 1,145 | 5 Jun 2023 | 99 yrs from 05/12/2011 |
| SYMPHONY SUITES | $1,068,000 | $893 | 3 | 1,195 | 14 Sept 2023 | 99 yrs from 10/06/2014 |
| SYMPHONY SUITES | $1,070,000 | 915 | 3 | 1,169 | 11 October 2023 | 99 yrs from 10/06/2014 |
| REGENT GROVE | $1,075,000 | 1,163 | 3 | 925 | 1 Mar 2023 | 99 yrs from 17/05/1997 |
| HEDGES PARK CONDOMINIUM | $1,080,000 | 1,001 | 3 | 1,079 | 21 Feb 2023 | 99 yrs from 28/07/2010 |
| NINE RESIDENCES | $1,080,000 | 904 | 3 | 1,194 | 2 May 2023 | 99 yrs from 30/04/2013 |
名单中唯一的永久产权项目是Crystal Lodge，但它并非严格意义上的公寓（属于Apartment，缺乏公共设施）。此外其位置贴近芽笼的声色场所区域，坦白说更像是一项以出租为主的资产，而非家庭自住型产品。
其他项目尚可，但普遍远离MRT，或楼龄较大。因此，升级族需要适当降低预期。
尽管如此，我们不妨把网撒得更广些，看看各规划区内私人非有地的三卧室市场：
| Area | Min | Avg | Max | Shortfall from Min | Shortfall from average |
| Ang Mo Kio | $1,418,000 | $2,178,301 | $2,638,000 | $60,223 | -$700,078 |
| Bedok | $1,180,000 | $1,765,506 | $2,381,000 | $298,223 | -$287,283 |
| Bishan | $1,420,000 | $2,047,220 | $2,550,000 | $58,223 | -$568,997 |
| Bukit Batok | $1,100,000 | $1,558,985 | $1,981,000 | $378,223 | -$80,762 |
| Bukit Merah | $1,760,000 | $2,172,104 | $2,946,760 | -$281,777 | -$693,881 |
| Bukit Panjang | $1,500,000 | $2,005,468 | $2,320,000 | -$21,777 | -$527,245 |
| Bukit Timah | $1,758,000 | $2,663,116 | $3,583,597 | -$279,777 | -$1,184,893 |
| Choa Chu Kang | $1,040,000 | $1,107,083 | $1,250,000 | $438,223 | $371,140 |
| Clementi | $1,350,000 | $1,863,736 | $2,608,800 | $128,223 | -$385,513 |
| Downtown Core | $2,400,000 | $2,679,166 | $3,012,000 | -$921,777 | -$1,200,943 |
| Geylang | $980,000 | $1,887,128 | $2,508,000 | $498,223 | -$408,905 |
| Hougang | $900,000 | $1,639,116 | $2,338,800 | $578,223 | -$160,893 |
| Jurong East | $1,198,000 | $1,541,000 | $1,910,000 | $280,223 | -$62,777 |
| Jurong West | $1,220,000 | $1,604,344 | $2,080,000 | $258,223 | -$126,121 |
| Kallang | $1,352,888 | $1,704,745 | $2,780,000 | $125,335 | -$226,522 |
| Marine Parade | $1,720,000 | $2,434,410 | $3,271,550 | -$241,777 | -$956,187 |
| Museum | $2,575,000 | $2,649,167 | $2,828,000 | -$1,096,777 | -$1,170,944 |
| Newton | $2,863,000 | $3,093,370 | $3,300,000 | -$1,384,777 | -$1,615,147 |
| Novena | $1,150,000 | $2,810,511 | $4,046,000 | $328,223 | -$1,332,288 |
| Outram | $2,445,888 | $2,931,537 | $3,314,880 | -$967,665 | -$1,453,314 |
| Pasir Ris | $1,080,000 | $1,363,854 | $1,770,000 | $398,223 | $114,369 |
| Punggol | $1,060,000 | $1,344,494 | $1,680,000 | $418,223 | $133,729 |
| Queenstown | $1,570,000 | $2,030,514 | $2,560,000 | -$91,777 | -$552,291 |
| River Valley | $1,800,000 | $2,384,543 | $2,906,800 | -$321,777 | -$906,320 |
| Rochor | $1,586,000 | $1,745,808 | $2,400,000 | -$107,777 | -$267,585 |
| Sembawang | $1,120,000 | $1,208,990 | $1,298,888 | $358,223 | $269,233 |
| Sengkang | $1,118,000 | $1,419,492 | $1,860,000 | $360,223 | $58,731 |
| Serangoon | $1,280,000 | $1,864,338 | $2,150,000 | $198,223 | -$386,115 |
| Singapore River | $2,350,000 | $3,262,986 | $3,680,000 | -$871,777 | -$1,784,763 |
| Tampines | $1,120,000 | $1,542,423 | $1,884,000 | $358,223 | -$64,200 |
| Tanglin | $1,900,000 | $2,730,233 | $3,579,840 | -$421,777 | -$1,252,010 |
| Toa Payoh | $1,528,888 | $1,970,519 | $2,441,000 | -$50,665 | -$492,296 |
| Woodlands | $980,000 | $1,134,000 | $1,288,000 | $498,223 | $344,223 |
| Yishun | $1,058,800 | $1,284,464 | $1,960,000 | $419,423 | $193,759 |
| Total | $900,000 | $1,952,269 | $4,046,000 | $578,223 | -$474,046 |
即便不是新盘，许多区域的总价也已逼近$2,000,000，甚至已达此价位。仍有一些可能的选择，例如Choa Chu Kang、Woodlands和Yishun；以中位收入来看，Pasir Ris、Punggol与Sembawang也可纳入考量。
相信这些名字并不意外，它们一直是传统意义上的“可负担”板块（也就是说，位于发展程度较低、价格相对更亲民的地区）。
话虽如此，从上述数据可见，对HDB升级族而言，优先考虑EC更为务实。尽管他们并未完全被私宅公寓“挤出”市场，但升级难度确实在加大。
如果你坚持要升级到新推出的公寓……
确实如此。近几个月升级到新盘更为不易。自疫情后期以来，约$2,000+ psf的价格已成为新常态，即便是位于外围区域的新盘亦然：
| Project | Average Prices | Shortfall |
| 10 Evelyn | $3,404,883 | -$1,926,660 |
| Altura | $1,397,000 | $81,223 |
| Atlassia | $2,506,516 | -$1,028,293 |
| Bartley Vue | $2,086,818 | -$608,595 |
| Blossoms By The Park | $2,557,462 | -$1,079,239 |
| Claydence | $2,849,055 | -$1,370,832 |
| Cuscaden Reserve | $4,289,000 | -$2,810,777 |
| Enchante | $2,971,913 | -$1,493,690 |
| Grand Dunman | $3,005,681 | -$1,527,458 |
| Hill House | $2,325,857 | -$847,634 |
| Ikigai | $3,843,560 | -$2,365,337 |
| Ki Residences At Brookvale | $2,393,333 | -$915,110 |
| Klimt Cairnhill | $5,357,650 | -$3,879,427 |
| Lentor Hills Residences | $2,293,123 | -$814,900 |
| Lentor Modern | $2,422,615 | -$944,392 |
| Lumina Grand | $1,425,108 | $53,115 |
| Midtown Bay | $5,162,250 | -$3,684,027 |
| Mori | $2,256,800 | -$778,577 |
| North Gaia | $1,296,236 | $181,987 |
| One Bernam | $4,257,053 | -$2,778,830 |
| Orchard Sophia | $2,285,333 | -$807,110 |
| Perfect Ten | $4,759,920 | -$3,281,697 |
| Pinetree Hill | $2,907,531 | -$1,429,308 |
| Royal Hallmark | $1,949,000 | -$470,777 |
| Sceneca Residence | $2,386,814 | -$908,591 |
| Sky Eden@Bedok | $2,318,429 | -$840,206 |
| Tembusu Grand | $2,801,962 | -$1,323,739 |
| Terra Hill | $2,822,679 | -$1,344,456 |
| The Arden | $1,939,591 | -$461,368 |
| The Botany at Dairy Farm | $2,176,019 | -$697,796 |
| The Continuum | $3,102,914 | -$1,624,691 |
| The LakeGarden Residences | $2,262,991 | -$784,768 |
| The Landmark | $3,155,932 | -$1,677,709 |
| The Myst | $2,181,033 | -$702,810 |
| The Reef At King’s Dock | $3,060,461 | -$1,582,238 |
| The Shorefront | $1,922,200 | -$443,977 |
| Grand Total | $2,537,247 | -$1,059,024 |
一套新盘三卧室的平均总价约为$2.537 million。即便你刚卖掉一套位于Queenstown、价格$800,000的组屋，这个价位仍显吃力，更别提一般的4房式组屋了。
因此，如果你确实想买新盘三卧室，你需要显著高于收入中位数的收入，或已累积相当可观的财富（尤其是用于支付首付款）。
话虽如此，若你想要新盘EC，可以考虑North Gaia、Altura或Lumina Grand。这些新EC的三卧室价格可能在$1.2 million左右；但别忘了，新EC需要重新履行5年MOP，且要到第10年才会完全私有化。
此外，购买新EC将适用Mortgage Servicing Ratio（MSR）。该比率为30%，不同于TDSR的55%，因此获得贷款会更困难。换言之，收入处于中位数的买家需要准备更多的前期资金以降低贷款额。
那么HDB升级族是否已被私宅公寓“挤出”市场？
鉴于升级族的选择愈发被局限在EC或更便宜的转售选项上，我们认为最准确的回答是：几乎如此。
他们并未完全被挤出，但以目前新盘的价位而言，对大多数收入中位数的新加坡人来说，已基本无缘，这一步“跨越”已超过一半的距离。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。点击此处阅读英文原文。
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