在新加坡，最实惠的有地住宅通常并非私宅；而是 HDB 排屋，其中不少可追溯至 1950 年代。由于极其罕见，每当有交易就备受关注——例如 Whampoa 一间 52 年屋龄的 HDB 有地住宅在 2024 年 7 月以 $1.568 million 成交。这在技术层面上使其成为有史以来成交价最高的 3 房“组屋”，尽管这并不是一个完全公平的比较。尽管如此，这也引发了一个问题：这些年纪已高的有地房屋是否仍具转售价值？我们因此做了更深入的梳理：
(如果你还不清楚什么是 HDB 有地住宅，可以参考这篇文章中的一些细节).
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
如果你有类似的困惑，我们提供结构化的一对一咨询，帮你全面梳理财务状况、购房目标与市场选项——客观分析，不带立场。
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1990 年以来的 HDB 有地住宅成交
我们梳理出自 1990 年至今共有 41 个地段出现过有地类交易。数量不多，这与其稀缺性有关，成交量必然较低。我们也无法获得具体到单个单位的价格（类似普通 HDB 的公开度），但这些数据可为你提供一个价格参考。
| 年份 | JLN BAHAGIA | JLN MA’MOR | JLN TENTERAM | STIRLING RD |
| 1990 | $86,063 | $59,000 | $90,000 | $99,400 |
| 1991 | $90,409 | $70,000 | $60,000 | $100,800 |
| 1992 | $111,800 | $103,600 | $158,000 | |
| 1993 | $196,385 | $126,000 | $225,333 | |
| 1994 | $283,500 | $297,857 | $288,000 | $283,250 |
| 1995 | $398,500 | $372,143 | $398,700 | |
| 1996 | $498,350 | $445,769 | $430,000 | $498,286 |
| 1997 | $516,282 | $537,750 | $578,000 | $512,028 |
| 1998 | $459,150 | $463,000 | $474,125 | |
| 1999 | $426,677 | $452,989 | $430,000 | $460,000 |
| 2000 | $482,857 | $498,929 | $450,000 | $398,833 |
| 2001 | $476,000 | $468,333 | $469,000 | $426,000 |
| 2002 | $431,955 | $435,800 | $390,000 | $434,600 |
| 2003 | $420,250 | $397,667 | $390,000 | $410,200 |
| 2004 | $416,400 | $479,200 | $515,000 | $406,000 |
| 2005 | $444,429 | $368,333 | $368,000 | $394,800 |
| 2006 | $448,667 | $440,625 | $376,115 | |
| 2007 | $434,933 | $454,750 | $491,722 | |
| 2008 | $480,600 | $523,762 | $518,571 | |
| 2009 | $608,627 | $609,289 | $568,446 | |
| 2010 | $707,111 | $660,083 | $663,333 | $636,500 |
| 2011 | $759,875 | $768,000 | $769,400 | $740,296 |
| 2012 | $747,750 | $828,397 | $810,000 | $789,450 |
| 2013 | $730,000 | $933,222 | $818,250 | |
| 2014 | $800,750 | $880,750 | $704,000 | |
| 2015 | $837,948 | $842,667 | $794,333 | |
| 2016 | $764,722 | $843,750 | $915,000 | |
| 2017 | $771,000 | $806,481 | $844,630 | |
| 2018 | $878,000 | $810,333 | $645,000 | $873,000 |
| 2019 | $755,000 | $782,500 | $850,000 | |
| 2020 | $833,571 | $827,500 | $678,000 | $871,000 |
| 2021 | $973,320 | $907,500 | $965,000 | $864,000 |
| 2022 | $863,500 | $887,648 | $924,333 | |
| 2023 | $1,021,500 | $1,100,000 | $780,500 | |
| 2024 | $847,222 | $1,266,000 | ||
| 变动 (1990 – 2024) | 6.96% | 9.44% | 14.98% | 6.44% |
| 变动 (2014 – 2024) | 0.57% | 3.70% | No Data | 1.15% |
| 年份 | JLN BAHAGIA | JLN MA’MOR | JLN TENTERAM | STIRLING RD |
| 1990 | $74 | $41 | $89 | $90 |
| 1991 | $80 | $60 | $57 | $88 |
| 1992 | $83 | $69 | $122 | |
| 1993 | $128 | $113 | $189 | |
| 1994 | $247 | $222 | $185 | $279 |
| 1995 | $314 | $341 | $343 | |
| 1996 | $379 | $419 | $425 | $459 |
| 1997 | $400 | $353 | $303 | $477 |
| 1998 | $397 | $331 | $457 | |
| 1999 | $338 | $342 | $425 | $326 |
| 2000 | $429 | $351 | $431 | $396 |
| 2001 | $378 | $334 | $373 | $394 |
| 2002 | $352 | $384 | $385 | $349 |
| 2003 | $376 | $392 | $385 | $393 |
| 2004 | $347 | $298 | $216 | $342 |
| 2005 | $356 | $386 | $364 | $345 |
| 2006 | $309 | $352 | $364 | |
| 2007 | $380 | $395 | $423 | |
| 2008 | $507 | $400 | $503 | |
| 2009 | $507 | $450 | $513 | |
| 2010 | $544 | $607 | $567 | $617 |
| 2011 | $643 | $707 | $760 | $753 |
| 2012 | $822 | $703 | $801 | $818 |
| 2013 | $805 | $592 | $692 | |
| 2014 | $801 | $721 | $752 | |
| 2015 | $781 | $686 | $702 | |
| 2016 | $783 | $666 | $804 | |
| 2017 | $600 | $641 | $885 | |
| 2018 | $643 | $575 | $637 | $873 |
| 2019 | $702 | $806 | $908 | |
| 2020 | $726 | $725 | $670 | $774 |
| 2021 | $737 | $669 | $640 | $781 |
| 2022 | $915 | $867 | $742 | |
| 2023 | $784 | $955 | $783 | |
| 2024 | $762 | $590 | ||
| 变动 (1990 – 2024) | 7.11% | 8.14% | 12.31% | 6.78% |
| 变动 (2014 – 2024) | -0.51% | -1.98% | No Data | 0.45% |
接下来，我们将这些有地住宅的数据与普通 HDB 组屋的表现进行对比：
| 年份 | 3 房 | 4 房 | 5 房 | 行政 |
| 1990 | $42,548 | $81,757 | $132,615 | $186,458 |
| 1991 | $44,390 | $81,761 | $138,103 | $191,167 |
| 1992 | $48,046 | $90,912 | $154,384 | $213,971 |
| 1993 | $70,767 | $134,360 | $227,253 | $296,455 |
| 1994 | $93,896 | $175,046 | $284,072 | $367,723 |
| 1995 | $120,862 | $216,575 | $341,553 | $443,288 |
| 1996 | $172,576 | $295,868 | $441,541 | $572,772 |
| 1997 | $194,325 | $304,947 | $442,182 | $567,156 |
| 1998 | $154,528 | $253,703 | $373,743 | $479,760 |
| 1999 | $145,733 | $243,871 | $355,042 | $447,643 |
| 2000 | $157,157 | $256,708 | $375,507 | $479,089 |
| 2001 | $144,927 | $233,871 | $340,184 | $445,524 |
| 2002 | $143,714 | $224,189 | $324,428 | $422,226 |
| 2003 | $159,283 | $230,091 | $322,054 | $408,603 |
| 2004 | $173,888 | $237,554 | $315,056 | $386,484 |
| 2005 | $170,063 | $234,454 | $303,456 | $361,812 |
| 2006 | $166,105 | $235,465 | $303,186 | $357,635 |
| 2007 | $180,589 | $254,522 | $327,557 | $384,763 |
| 2008 | $225,845 | $308,725 | $389,542 | $458,551 |
| 2009 | $248,522 | $331,749 | $403,023 | $471,082 |
| 2010 | $286,763 | $372,523 | $454,304 | $522,056 |
| 2011 | $324,178 | $422,694 | $501,826 | $577,826 |
| 2012 | $350,309 | $456,252 | $542,172 | $629,253 |
| 2013 | $361,126 | $479,144 | $568,800 | $661,300 |
| 2014 | $340,068 | $444,921 | $536,065 | $639,124 |
| 2015 | $323,645 | $433,574 | $515,018 | $620,677 |
| 2016 | $321,489 | $434,348 | $522,708 | $624,048 |
| 2017 | $316,668 | $437,120 | $532,277 | $627,211 |
| 2018 | $305,331 | $431,704 | $527,635 | $630,780 |
| 2019 | $298,230 | $429,749 | $526,812 | $617,561 |
| 2020 | $311,381 | $448,559 | $541,457 | $635,395 |
| 2021 | $351,378 | $505,022 | $603,990 | $705,559 |
| 2022 | $388,116 | $549,022 | $654,253 | $782,007 |
| 2023 | $411,272 | $584,035 | $685,338 | $829,310 |
| 2024 | $430,602 | $614,876 | $716,679 | $864,590 |
| 变动 (1990 – 2024) | 7.04% | 6.11% | 5.09% | 4.62% |
| 变动 (2014 – 2024) | 2.39% | 3.29% | 2.95% | 3.07% |
| 年份 | 3 房 | 4 房 | 5 房 | 行政 |
| 1990 | $58 | $80 | $100 | $116 |
| 1991 | $60 | $81 | $104 | $120 |
| 1992 | $65 | $90 | $116 | $134 |
| 1993 | $97 | $132 | $171 | $187 |
| 1994 | $128 | $170 | $214 | $232 |
| 1995 | $164 | $210 | $257 | $278 |
| 1996 | $234 | $284 | $332 | $359 |
| 1997 | $261 | $293 | $332 | $357 |
| 1998 | $209 | $243 | $279 | $301 |
| 1999 | $198 | $231 | $264 | $277 |
| 2000 | $213 | $242 | $279 | $298 |
| 2001 | $197 | $221 | $256 | $280 |
| 2002 | $195 | $212 | $245 | $266 |
| 2003 | $216 | $218 | $243 | $257 |
| 2004 | $238 | $227 | $240 | $244 |
| 2005 | $233 | $225 | $233 | $230 |
| 2006 | $228 | $227 | $235 | $227 |
| 2007 | $248 | $247 | $256 | $245 |
| 2008 | $310 | $299 | $306 | $293 |
| 2009 | $341 | $322 | $318 | $303 |
| 2010 | $394 | $361 | $356 | $335 |
| 2011 | $445 | $410 | $395 | $373 |
| 2012 | $482 | $443 | $426 | $409 |
| 2013 | $496 | $467 | $446 | $426 |
| 2014 | $465 | $434 | $421 | $412 |
| 2015 | $442 | $422 | $405 | $401 |
| 2016 | $439 | $423 | $411 | $402 |
| 2017 | $432 | $427 | $419 | $404 |
| 2018 | $417 | $422 | $416 | $406 |
| 2019 | $409 | $421 | $415 | $396 |
| 2020 | $427 | $443 | $430 | $407 |
| 2021 | $482 | $499 | $480 | $453 |
| 2022 | $532 | $541 | $519 | $499 |
| 2023 | $562 | $574 | $543 | $530 |
| 2024 | $589 | $606 | $568 | $553 |
| 变动 (1990 – 2024) | 7.07% | 6.13% | 5.25% | 4.69% |
| 变动 (2014 – 2024) | 2.41% | 3.39% | 3.05% | 2.97% |
可以看到，若严格观察过去 10 年（2014 至 2024），各面积段的普通组屋均跑赢——或至少不逊于——这些排屋的表现。这很可能与租约递减效应有关：许多排屋在 2014 年至今已进入租约下半程。相较之下，此处普通组屋的数据包含了更多屋龄更轻的 HDB。
关于 CPF 使用的新规也可能对此有所影响，并将持续产生影响。
自 2019 年 5 月起，购房使用 CPF 的额度将按比例计算，取决于剩余租期能否覆盖最年轻买家至 95 岁。许多 HDB 排屋的剩余租期少于 50 年，因此这一规定尤为关键。
在接下来的 10 年里，这类小众房产可获得的融资与 CPF 使用将愈发受限；而必须以现金支付也会显著限制任何形式的价格上涨空间。
一个有意思的对比对象是行政型 HDB 组屋
部分行政型组屋在面积上可与 HDB 排屋相当；因此可能成为颇具竞争力的替代选择。
若从 1990 年至今的长期表现看，HDB 有地的回报优于行政型组屋。只是近 10 年行政型组屋的表现更好，根源仍在屋龄：行政型组屋也可能较旧，但少有能与 1950 年代排屋的屋龄相提并论。
因此，如果你的核心诉求只是更大的使用空间，或许值得考虑选择一套行政型组屋，而非 HDB 有地住宅。
HDB 有地住宅在财务考量之外也有其价值
与部分房产经纪交流后，他们指出：HDB 有地住宅最适合并不太在意转售增值的人群购买（例如确信这是最后一站的退休者）。
如果你只是想自己打理庭院、居住在人口密度更低的环境，或饲养难以在普通组屋单位内安置的宠物，那么与价格可能高出逾两倍的私宅有地房相比，HDB 有地或许是更理性的选择。不过截至 2024 年，仍可期待一定增值的 HDB 排屋业主，或许已是“最后一代”；若持有更久，涨幅大概率也有限。
想获取更多关于新加坡房地产市场（无论是 HDB 还是私宅）的内容，欢迎关注 Stacked。 如果你希望就置业目标进行更深入的咨询，欢迎在这里与我们联系。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。点击此处阅读英文原文。
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