这些抱怨你大概早已听腻了：既然组屋都要百万新元了，不如去买公寓；或者那个段子——20年后你可能得卖掉公寓才买得起一套组屋。只是，放在当前市场里，确实有人在小型大众化公寓与市中心大型转售组屋之间权衡取舍。更重要的是，观察百万组屋与公寓之间的价差，能为当下楼市提供一个颇有意思的视角——这正是我们所做的：
很多读者来信，是因为不确定下一步该怎么做，也不知道该相信谁。
如果你有类似的困惑，我们提供结构化的一对一咨询，帮你全面梳理财务状况、购房目标与市场选项——客观分析，不带立场。
没有任何义务，只是让你更清晰。
点击了解更多 这里。
关于本次比较的若干说明
为便于比较，我们纳入了永久产权与租赁产权的非有地私人住宅。但将面积限定在105至122 sqm，这与大多数5-room组屋大致相当。这也是最具实际意义的区间，因为在平衡组屋与公寓之间时，买家多半会以这一尺寸作对照。
另请留意，我们在比较中将downtown core视同Central Area，将Kallang视同Kallang/Whampoa市镇；这与HDB指定的相应区域基本对应。
由于价差因地段而异，全岛平均意义不大。不如分区来看公寓与转售组屋之间的价差：
各规划区的公寓价格：
| 规划区 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Ang Mo Kio | $1,105,177 | $1,212,472 | $1,263,979 | $1,291,438 | $1,345,388 | $1,591,630 | $1,614,354 | $1,777,192 |
| Bedok | $1,200,531 | $1,302,548 | $1,348,427 | $1,309,620 | $1,426,684 | $1,543,279 | $1,711,868 | $1,834,017 |
| Bishan | $1,387,228 | $1,535,762 | $1,547,156 | $1,527,516 | $1,647,247 | $1,831,505 | $2,036,157 | $2,053,447 |
| Bukit Batok | $1,109,110 | $1,184,060 | $1,238,560 | $1,191,977 | $1,286,490 | $1,428,529 | $1,607,527 | $1,663,696 |
| Bukit Merah | $1,688,408 | $2,035,871 | $1,899,270 | $1,888,441 | $1,903,310 | $2,043,473 | $2,189,667 | $2,175,220 |
| Bukit Panjang | $1,156,833 | $1,258,171 | $1,313,907 | $1,249,181 | $1,375,819 | $1,511,408 | $1,729,123 | $1,751,222 |
| Bukit Timah | $1,482,891 | $1,790,438 | $1,734,932 | $1,761,159 | $1,837,957 | $2,089,534 | $2,132,393 | $2,297,697 |
| Clementi | $1,287,822 | $1,351,153 | $1,405,646 | $1,414,179 | $1,526,956 | $1,679,437 | $1,826,710 | $1,885,085 |
| Downtown Core | $2,096,807 | $2,824,892 | $2,967,518 | $2,756,107 | $2,604,322 | $2,610,048 | $2,361,547 | $2,366,929 |
| Geylang | $1,225,892 | $1,353,941 | $1,386,659 | $1,386,743 | $1,459,703 | $1,575,961 | $1,784,027 | $1,801,212 |
| Hougang | $1,106,317 | $1,184,990 | $1,220,660 | $1,192,692 | $1,231,367 | $1,389,217 | $1,529,692 | $1,622,481 |
| Jurong East | $1,059,243 | $1,063,321 | $1,078,423 | $1,146,310 | $1,164,452 | $1,254,245 | $1,340,468 | $1,430,308 |
| Kallang | $1,463,522 | $1,592,777 | $1,553,138 | $1,520,383 | $1,626,097 | $1,781,432 | $2,016,116 | $2,039,187 |
| Marine Parade | $1,991,455 | $1,808,351 | $1,867,660 | $1,875,274 | $1,949,187 | $2,133,274 | $2,360,631 | $2,433,658 |
| Pasir Ris | $964,002 | $1,040,385 | $1,058,081 | $1,086,084 | $1,142,595 | $1,273,275 | $1,377,973 | $1,506,768 |
| Punggol | $1,114,712 | $1,181,877 | $1,193,368 | $1,188,321 | $1,282,534 | $1,463,804 | $1,606,673 | $1,690,481 |
| Queenstown | $1,355,238 | $1,533,111 | $1,508,151 | $1,482,627 | $1,603,988 | $1,758,458 | $1,924,247 | $2,010,186 |
| Sengkang | $983,433 | $1,083,712 | $1,107,473 | $1,083,389 | $1,195,734 | $1,414,615 | $1,531,348 | $1,604,445 |
| Serangoon | $1,312,272 | $1,429,349 | $1,336,573 | $1,331,998 | $1,493,508 | $1,693,383 | $1,816,878 | $2,049,059 |
| Tampines | $979,830 | $1,070,066 | $1,086,597 | $1,073,578 | $1,167,539 | $1,309,871 | $1,462,188 | $1,561,649 |
| Toa Payoh | $1,456,660 | $1,535,004 | $1,583,056 | $1,587,169 | $1,691,029 | $1,778,669 | $2,000,539 | $2,102,471 |
| Woodlands | $815,790 | $842,230 | $817,198 | $818,915 | $953,585 | $1,116,586 | $1,213,753 | $1,236,432 |
| Yishun | $878,467 | $952,057 | $977,649 | $979,125 | $1,059,583 | $1,211,410 | $1,345,739 | $1,425,399 |
各HDB市镇的转售组屋价格
| HDB 市镇 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Ang Mo Kio | $1,019,444 | $1,050,978 | $1,055,593 | $1,085,082 | $1,109,858 | |||
| Bedok | $1,050,259 | $1,030,543 | $1,064,185 | |||||
| Bishan | $1,036,457 | $1,052,241 | $1,043,818 | $1,097,341 | $1,105,178 | $1,151,658 | $1,143,548 | $1,211,908 |
| Bukit Batok | $1,005,000 | $1,031,722 | $1,020,267 | |||||
| Bukit Merah | $1,056,127 | $1,074,378 | $1,062,607 | $1,086,887 | $1,088,533 | $1,134,730 | $1,125,401 | |
| Bukit Panjang | $1,020,000 | $1,003,894 | ||||||
| Bukit Timah | $1,016,944 | $1,032,000 | $1,019,333 | $1,086,692 | $1,205,658 | $1,187,571 | $1,213,334 | |
| Clementi | $1,030,000 | $1,068,000 | $1,038,000 | $1,012,519 | $1,041,489 | $1,078,318 | $1,110,416 | $1,126,706 |
| Central Area | $1,065,400 | $1,066,315 | $1,065,564 | $1,114,231 | $1,091,769 | $1,180,731 | $1,249,096 | $1,343,227 |
| Geylang | $1,008,888 | $1,032,984 | $1,047,318 | $1,045,185 | ||||
| Hougang | $1,000,000 | $1,052,778 | $1,040,200 | $1,058,035 | ||||
| Jurong East | $1,000,000 | $1,010,667 | $1,033,972 | |||||
| Kallang/Whampoa | $1,002,500 | $1,069,568 | $1,109,000 | $1,120,000 | $1,117,563 | $1,104,949 | $1,088,081 | $1,067,157 |
| Marine Parade | $1,039,629 | $1,011,778 | $1,157,972 | |||||
| Pasir Ris | $1,188,444 | $1,000,000 | $1,020,750 | |||||
| Punggol | $1,198,000 | $1,185,000 | $1,184,256 | |||||
| Queenstown | $1,058,200 | $1,055,681 | $1,070,876 | $1,053,563 | $1,085,927 | $1,136,947 | $1,106,245 | $1,123,915 |
| Sengkang | $1,001,667 | |||||||
| Serangoon | $1,000,000 | $1,024,072 | $1,061,659 | $1,067,059 | $1,108,994 | |||
| Tampines | $1,007,051 | $1,012,500 | $1,036,289 | |||||
| Toa Payoh | $1,043,967 | $1,059,876 | $1,055,361 | $1,060,825 | $1,091,214 | $1,118,003 | $1,126,720 | $1,132,377 |
| Woodlands | $1,029,422 | $1,047,349 | $1,039,400 | |||||
| Yishun | $1,035,878 | $1,062,450 | $1,048,571 |
HDB与公寓的整体价差
有一个也许不那么意外的发现：在大多数区域，价差正在扩大。这意味着，尽管出现了越来越多的百万组屋，私人住宅的涨幅其实更快。
转售组屋价格在疫情期间确曾强劲上扬，但这主要源于公共与私人住房同时遭遇的供应紧缩。因此公寓价格也与HDB同步走高。
如果只将租赁产权公寓与百万组屋进行比较，会如何？
有人主张应将组屋（99年租赁）与租赁产权公寓对照，这有一定道理。此外，多数HDB升级者考虑的多是OCR公寓，而这类项目几乎清一色为租赁产权。于是我们单独来看：
各区租赁产权公寓价格
| 规划区 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Ang Mo Kio | $1,035,770 | $1,100,661 | $1,154,970 | $1,174,997 | $1,286,831 | $1,531,954 | $1,546,521 | $1,672,214 |
| Bedok | $1,148,463 | $1,250,803 | $1,287,739 | $1,254,329 | $1,336,975 | $1,488,645 | $1,633,841 | $1,798,959 |
| Bishan | $1,389,956 | $1,532,500 | $1,541,443 | $1,508,634 | $1,645,428 | $1,827,812 | $2,038,676 | $2,049,629 |
| Bukit Batok | $943,377 | $981,229 | $996,559 | $991,456 | $1,036,899 | $1,199,318 | $1,319,314 | $1,368,433 |
| Bukit Merah | $1,664,885 | $2,028,103 | $1,897,815 | $1,868,613 | $1,893,194 | $2,021,212 | $2,131,866 | $2,174,616 |
| Bukit Panjang | $1,122,537 | $1,290,288 | $1,285,115 | $1,225,956 | $1,335,684 | $1,484,975 | $1,658,649 | $1,697,240 |
| Bukit Timah | $1,274,358 | $1,677,797 | $1,587,194 | $1,597,192 | $1,705,691 | $1,919,225 | $2,040,807 | $2,260,300 |
| Clementi | $1,186,615 | $1,242,781 | $1,253,092 | $1,297,950 | $1,436,218 | $1,579,595 | $1,761,131 | $1,778,606 |
| Downtown Core | $2,096,807 | $2,865,163 | $2,967,518 | $2,768,022 | $2,604,322 | $2,610,048 | $2,361,547 | $2,366,929 |
| Geylang | $1,284,423 | $1,326,778 | $1,447,559 | $1,361,883 | $1,502,007 | $1,612,841 | $1,922,804 | $1,889,396 |
| Hougang | $1,075,584 | $1,122,130 | $1,195,157 | $1,153,593 | $1,191,817 | $1,347,973 | $1,504,341 | $1,625,283 |
| Jurong East | $1,059,243 | $1,063,321 | $1,078,423 | $1,146,310 | $1,164,452 | $1,254,245 | $1,340,468 | $1,430,308 |
| Kallang | $1,366,800 | $1,613,040 | $1,663,533 | $1,428,732 | $1,505,094 | $1,663,155 | $1,949,323 | $1,992,222 |
| Marine Parade | $1,640,231 | $1,801,333 | $1,607,600 | $1,793,923 | $1,760,533 | $2,059,643 | $2,409,375 | $2,508,333 |
| Pasir Ris | $958,433 | $1,031,474 | $1,048,713 | $1,098,550 | $1,141,226 | $1,274,187 | $1,381,015 | $1,505,301 |
| Punggol | $1,114,712 | $1,181,877 | $1,193,368 | $1,188,321 | $1,282,534 | $1,463,804 | $1,606,673 | $1,690,481 |
| Queenstown | $1,357,335 | $1,486,123 | $1,489,264 | $1,511,438 | $1,623,597 | $1,774,426 | $1,947,486 | $2,005,017 |
| Sengkang | $983,433 | $1,083,712 | $1,107,473 | $1,083,389 | $1,195,734 | $1,414,615 | $1,531,348 | $1,604,445 |
| Serangoon | $1,200,930 | $1,332,762 | $1,284,959 | $1,295,094 | $1,444,284 | $1,627,018 | $1,806,951 | $1,993,613 |
| Tampines | $962,129 | $1,053,295 | $1,069,145 | $1,064,425 | $1,156,464 | $1,303,321 | $1,458,551 | $1,566,037 |
| Toa Payoh | $1,439,856 | $1,551,907 | $1,555,316 | $1,569,696 | $1,698,573 | $1,768,408 | $1,997,751 | $2,095,462 |
| Woodlands | $815,790 | $842,230 | $817,198 | $818,915 | $953,585 | $1,116,586 | $1,213,753 | $1,236,432 |
| Yishun | $878,467 | $941,947 | $977,649 | $975,983 | $1,051,478 | $1,211,515 | $1,345,739 | $1,422,760 |
仅与租赁产权公寓对比的各区价差
请注意，Orchard、Marina等核心地段的租赁产权公寓数量较少，可能会扭曲中区物业的整体图景。
结果并无二致：过去几年里，百万组屋与公寓之间的价差持续扩大。尤其在2023与2024之间，若以租赁产权物业为语境，这一道差距拉得更开。
这或许解释了近期百万组屋的频现
设想一位HDB升级者卖掉了自住房并获得可观利润。但由于价差扩大，他们仍难以从容地升级至公寓（至少达不到其心仪的面积与品质）。
在不一定能买到Executive Condos（EC）的情况下，这些买家的下一步或许就是选择更高端的组屋。与其为一套大众化的OCR公寓背负更大的贷款，他们可能会转而关注maisonettes（复式组屋）、jumbo flats（特大组屋），或位于Queenstown、Bishan、Toa Payoh等黄金地段的单位。
更大的空间与便利的地段，足以弥补配套设施的缺失；而更低的总价也意味着更小的负债压力。
顺带一提，价差最低的似乎在Woodlands！
原因尚难以定论，但可能与Woodlands较多大面积组屋有关。该区存在不少adjoined flats（并排合并单位）、executive flats（行政式组屋）、jumbo units（特大单位）等。与本区相对更便宜的公寓相比，这或许能解释为何价差较小。
我们也附上一些关于户型面积的数据：
我们取用了各年的成交组屋平均面积。整体看来，2023/24的平均面积在多数情况下更小。这也可能是价差扩大的另一个原因。还值得注意的是，Woodlands的成交单位面积变化不大，2024年录得的平均值较前几年更低。
基于上述观察，我们大致可得出两点结论：
第一，2024年升级到公寓更难了，且这一趋势已有几年之久。这可能促使更多升级者转向更大或更中心地段的组屋，而非把公寓视为置业旅程中的下一站。短中期内，这或将支撑转售组屋价格，并带来更多百万组屋。
第二，这对大多数HDB买家影响仍然有限，近期的降温措施亦有所体现。话虽如此，舆论观感仍是问题——这些标题每天都在刷屏。正如我们之前所言，这类价格最终会在大众心中形成黏性的价格锚点；或许用不了多久，我们就会看到新加坡每一个市镇都踏入百万HDB俱乐部。
在 Stacked，我们更喜欢跳出新闻标题和表面的数字，关注这些趋势在现实生活中是如何真正发生与发展的。
如果你想讨论这些情况如何适用于你自己的购房或投资计划，可以在这里预约 一对一咨询。
如果你只是有个问题，或想分享你的想法，也欢迎写信给我们：stories@stackedhomes.com —— 我们会阅读每一封来信。
本文由生成式人工智能翻译。点击此处阅读英文原文。
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