Where HDB Flats Continue to Hold Value Despite Ageing Leases

Most buyers assume older HDB flats will inevitably lose value as their lease runs down. But resale data shows a small group of ageing flats that outperform younger peers even after controlling for lease age. This analysis reveals where these flats are, and why scarcity, layout, and accessibility can delay lease-related price pressure.

By Ryan J. Ong

Published 29 January 2026, 9:50 PM SGT · 23 min read · 712

The “99-year time bomb” has been a topic of public discussion as far back as the 1990s. We all know that HDB flats have 99-year leases, so what happens when they get older?

Given that the value of a property typically falls as its lease runs down, surely at some point, the market price of an HDB flat will start falling and eventually might hit zero. This issue takes on a more urgent tone as we progress into 2026 and beyond.

This is because no more flats will be redeveloped under the government’s Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS). The SERS programme was once considered the saviour of ageing flats, as it meant older flats would be redeveloped and owners compensated with newer flats nearby. But now that it’s gone, there may be no more “hope premium” even in the best located but ageing flats.

Despite this, we’ve noticed something odd about HDB flat prices. Based on HDB resale data, there are a small group of flats that - for inexplicable reasons - refuse to see price drops despite ever-growing lease decay.

In this article, we’re going to try to pinpoint where they are, and try to identify why they’re able to defy time and an expiring lease:

How our analysis will be conducted

Frequently asked questions

What happens to HDB flat value as the lease gets older?

Typically, the value of a property falls as its lease runs down, and it might eventually hit zero when the lease expires. However, some flats have shown resilience and continue to hold value despite aging leases.

Why do some older flats in Singapore keep their prices high?

Some flats outperform their peers because of unique features like large size, rare layouts, or prime locations near MRT stations or in mature town centres, which make them more resilient to lease decay.

Are older flats still good investments if they are close to lease expiry?

While generally property value declines with lease decay, certain flats with special qualities or in prime locations may still perform well or even outperform newer flats, making them potentially good investments.

How can I tell if an older HDB flat is likely to defy lease decay?

Flats that have performed better than their age suggests, often due to size, layout, location, or unique features, are considered structural defiers and tend to resist lease decay better than typical flats.

Did the post-COVID housing boom affect the prices of older flats?

Some older flats only outperformed their peers after 2020, which could be due to the post-COVID boom. However, flats that outperformed both before and after COVID are considered genuine price resilience cases.

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Ryan J. Ong

Partner at Stacked

A seasoned content strategist with over 17 years in the real estate and financial journalism sectors, Ryan has built a reputation for transforming complex industry jargon into accessible knowledge. With a track record of writing and editing for leading financial platforms and publications, Ryan’s expertise has been recognised across various media outlets. His role as a former content editor for 99.co and a co-host for CNA 938’s Open House programme underscores his commitment to providing valuable insights into the property market.