I reckon that the informal chat groups and online forums for the buyers of One Marina Gardens will be alive with comments as those purchasers digest the latest news that the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is awarding the government land sale (GLS) site at Marina Gardens Lane to EL Development.
By itself, the confirmation of a GLS tender isn’t out of the ordinary, but the circumstances surrounding this tender will raise eyebrows among some in the property industry - including those who have purchased units at One Marina Gardens.
Firstly, EL Development was the only developer to submit a bid for the Marina Gardens Lane GLS site when it closed on October 15.
We rarely see such tepid developer participation for a development site on the Confirmed List, and the low participation rate took many market analysts by surprise.
But what stood out was the bid price that EL Development had submitted - $450 million for the 64,700 sq ft site, which works out to a land rate of $1,243 psf per plot ratio (ppr).
This is far below the expected price range of $1,400 to $1,500 psf ppr that nearly all market analysts had expected this plot to receive.
It is also close to 12% lower than the $psf bid price that Kingsford Group had paid for an adjacent GLS site more than three years ago. The Chinese developer won that site after submitting a $1.034 billion bid, about $1,402 psf ppr, beating three other bids back then.
Kingsford is developing that site into the 937-unit One Marina Gardens, which launched for sale in April 2025 and set an initial average selling price of $2,950 psf. According to caveats downloaded on Oct 26, the project has since sold 678 units (72%), and the average selling price has marginally increased to $2,965 psf.
Market analysts think that the new project by EL Development, which will be the second new launch project in Marina South, could see launch prices ranging from $2,700 to $2,900 psf, although the final figure will depend on market conditions and the eventual product offering.
There was uncertainty over whether URA would accept the sole bid for the Marina Gardens Lane GLS site, especially since the bid price was less than the price submitted by Kingsford, which set a de facto price floor for development sites in the mixed-use waterfront precinct.
Previously, URA rejected a $770.46 million ($984 psf ppr) bid submitted in 2024 by a consortium of developers - comprising GuocoLand, Hong Leong Holdings, and TID - who were the only ones to submit a bid for a GLS site at Marina Gardens Crescent.
For context, this is 30% less than the bid price submitted by Kingsford.
However, I was doubtful that URA would turn down another GLS bid - even though it is a lower price than what it views as an acceptable floor for a development site in that area.
At the end of the day, URA needs to ensure that the development of Marina South progresses, and accept the fact that developers just aren’t convinced that the area (especially as it stands today) is worth land prices of over $1,400 psf ppr.
Other development plans in and around Marina South are progressing.
The Singapore Tourism Board awarded a tender to Therme Group Singapore to develop and operate a 4ha wellness attraction along the Marina South waterfront.
Marina Bay Sands is also constructing a new fourth tower to complement the existing landmark integrated development. The new 55-storey tower will feature 570 luxury hotel suites, a 15,000-seat live entertainment arena, and new retail and conference facilities.
But the factors that make Marina South an appealing place to live are still quite hazy. The MRT station meant to serve this precinct has been built, but is not operational - trains on the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL) travelling between Marina Bay station and Gardens By The Bay station bypass Marina South station.
According to LTA, the station will be up and running once the area houses a sizeable proportion of residents.
There's a good chance that URA's acceptance of the land bid by EL Development will be taken as a sign that the government accepts the concerns raised by developers regarding the risk in developing the first few projects at Marina South, and how that translates into their assessment of land prices.
In short, some developers are worried that the scale of residential homes planned for this area will moderate price competitiveness in the future. Moreover, it is a tough sell to convince some buyers about the merits of buying a home there now, when many of the neighbourhood amenities that anchor its liveability are just not there.
Perhaps now that a more reasonable price floor has been set at Marina South, we will see future GLS sites there attract higher participation rates, and land prices that most developers will find tolerable.
But I suspect that many of the 678 owners of One Marina Gardens will be left feeling frustrated, to say the least, at the implication that they paid a premium for their units.
According to transaction data compiled by Stacked, the average price for a two-bedroom unit at One Marina Gardens starts from $1.88 million, with prices ranging from $2,828 to $3,123 psf; a typical three-bedder sells from $2.56 million, with prices ranging from $2,781 to $3,124 psf.
Meanwhile, most four-bedroom units there start from $4.77 million, with prices ranging from $2,898 to $3,134 psf. You can find a comprehensive list of unit types, floor plans, and comparative prices here.
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