I Own A Million Dollar HDB Flat At Tiong Bahru: Should I Sell Now For A New Launch Condo?

Hi,

I am currently a Singapore PR looking at the possibility to upgrade from HDB to a 3-bedroom condo for better capital appreciation and potentially beef up my retirement funds from the sale of the condo in the future. I'm a 40 year old single mum with a 9 year old and an elderly mum and am the sole breadwinner of the family.

I currently hold a 21 year old 4-room HDB at Tiong Bahru area with a price evaluation of 1 mil based on SRX X-value.

Would like to seek your opinion on the possible resale/new launch options if I were to look for a condo around D3, D10 or D11 area. This new place will be our home for the next 10 years due to schooling options around the vicinity.

I'm thinking of a new launch due to the progressive payment plan which is less burdensome on monthly cash layout for the first two years. However, I would still need to rent a place for at least 3 years (which I will be renting back at Tiong Bahru HDB for my child's current schooling convenience) before the new launch is completed which is also another expense that I thought might be channelled to renovation if I were to get a resale (looking at older freehold at these areas too).

Appreciate your valuable inputs on this!

Thank you!

---

Hi there,

Thank you for reaching out with your question.

While a private property may be better from a capital gain standpoint, this becomes a lot more difficult to answer when you are the sole breadwinner of your family and you have both an elderly mum and child to take care of.

And as you noted, both resale and new launch condod come with their merits and drawbacks, which we’ll explore further in the article.

To begin, let’s take a look at your affordability.

Affordability

Selling

Selling price	$1,000,000
Outstanding loan	$380,000
CPF used plus accrued interest	$200,000
Sales proceeds	$420,000

Buying

Maximum loan based on the age of 40 with a monthly income of $17K at 4.8% interest*	$1,055,852 (25-year tenure)
CPF	$200,000
Cash	$620,000
Total loan + CPF + cash	$1,875,852
BSD based on $1,875,852	$63,392
Estimated affordability	$1,812,460

*We have also taken into account your monthly car loan repayment and credit card expenses

Now let’s take a look at the performance of condominiums in Districts 3, 10 and 11. 

Performance of condos in D3, 10, 11

Year	D3 (resale)	D10 (resale)	D11 (resale)
2013	$1,348	$1,754	$1,573
2014	$1,360	$1,668	$1,514
2015	$1,302	$1,723	$1,481
2016	$1,259	$1,794	$1,468
2017	$1,313	$1,856	$1,643
2018	$1,633	$1,890	$1,678
2019	$1,630	$1,948	$1,567
2020	$1,606	$1,898	$1,608
2021	$1,655	$1,987	$1,703
2022	$1,873	$2,194	$1,782
2023	$1,982	$2,211	$1,926
Average	4.24%	2.42%	2.19%

Of the three districts, condominiums in District 3 have recorded the highest average growth rate over the past decade. During this period, both the Outside Central Region (OCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) outperformed the Core Central Region (CCR). This aligns with what we observe here, as D3 is in the RCR, while the other two districts are in the CCR. The higher growth rates in the OCR and RCR can likely be attributed to the government's decentralisation efforts, as well as an increase in HDB upgraders (among other things). Additionally, the already elevated prices in prime districts offer less room for further appreciation. The CCR, which attracts a significant number of investors and foreign buyers, may also see prices held back by the latest hike in Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) to 60% for foreigners and entities.

The debate between purchasing new launches versus resale properties is a long-standing one and ultimately depends on the individual property and your timing in terms of entry and exit. Each option has its pros and cons. Now, let’s examine how some of the newer properties in your preferred districts are performing compared to their older counterparts in the same area.

For newer developments, we’ll look at their initial launch to the present and compare this to the growth rate of older projects over the same period.

Tiong Bahru (D3)

Project	Completion year	Tenure	No. of units
Central Green Condominium	1995	99-year leasehold	412
Highline Residences	2018	99-year leasehold	500

Year	Central Green Condominium	Highline Residences
2014	$1,273	$1,856
2015	$1,246	$1,908
2016	$1,246	$1,796
2017	$1,251	$1,885
2018	$1,412	$1,968
2019	$1,413	$1,959
2020	$1,412	$1,912
2021	$1,443	$2,064
2022	$1,479	$2,192
2023	$1,542	$2,266
Average	2.15%	2.24%

Queenstown (D03)

Project	Completion year	Tenure	No. of units
Queens	2002	99-year leasehold	722
Stirling Residences	2022	99-year leasehold	1259

Year	Queens	Stirling Residences
2018	$1,227	$1,760
2019	$1,269	$1,838
2020	$1,240	$1,970
2021	$1,334	$2,042
2022	$1,432	$2,156
2023	$1,563	$2,284
Average	4.96%	5.35%

Bukit Timah (D10)

Project	Completion year	Tenure	No. of units
The Tessarina	2003	Freehold	443
RoyalGreen	2021	Freehold	285

Year	The Tessarina	Royalgreen
2019	$1,704	$2,743
2020	$1,669	$2,693
2021	$1,872	$2,711
2022	$1,958	$2,840
2023	$2,100	$2,755
Average	5.36%	0.11%

Tanglin (D10)

Project	Completion year	Tenure	No. of units
Latitude	2010	Freehold	217
Gramercy Park	2016	Freehold	174

Year	Latitude	Gramercy Park
2016	$1,918	$2,616
2017	$1,980	$2,820
2018	$2,083	$3,208
2019	$2,114	$3,078
2020	$2,006	$3,153
2021	$2,234	$3,066
2022	$2,699	$3,289
2023	$2,875	$3,625
Average	5.95%	4.77%

Novena (D11)

Project	Completion year	Tenure	No. of units
Thomson Euro Asia	2002	Freehold	163
6 Derbyshire	2017	Freehold	168

Year	Thomson Euro Asia	6 Derbyshire
2013	$1,694	$2,101
2014	$1,600	$2,091
2015	$1,647	$2,055
2016	$1,706	$2,133
2017	$1,637	$2,313
2018	$1,933	$2,179
2019	-	$1,817
2020	-	$1,812
2021	$2,090	$2,127
2022	$2,108	$2,131
2023	$2,174	$2,059
Average	2.53%	-0.20%

These examples illustrate that a new launch doesn't always outperform a resale property (or neither can you conclusively say that a resale is better). The key factors that determine a property's success still come down to price, location, development characteristics, and even smaller details like the unit layouts.

That being said, new launches do offer several distinct advantages. One benefit you’ve noted is the progressive payment scheme, which leads to lower monthly repayments during the construction phase. This helps to ease cash flow and reduces interest expenses over time. However, if you do not have alternative housing during the construction period, rental costs can add up significantly.

Another advantage is the developer’s pricing strategy, which typically increases as the project progresses. Early buyers may see paper gains as prices rise during the launch, benefiting from capital appreciation before the project is even completed. That said, this is not guaranteed, and price hikes don't always materialise if demand is weaker than anticipated or if market conditions shift.

In contrast, resale properties come with their own set of perks. Although full monthly repayments begin as soon as the transaction is completed, you won’t have to wait 3-4 years for the property to be built. Moreover, with a resale unit, you get to physically inspect the property, its condition, and its surroundings, offering more certainty and clarity about what you’re purchasing.

Now let’s take a look at the potential cost incurred for the two pathways you’re considering. 

Potential pathways

Buy a new launch

For calculation purposes, let's assume you utilise your maximum budget of $1.8M. We’ll use the average rental price of $3,800 for a 4-room HDB in Bukit Merah. Given your 10-year timeframe, we will consider a rental period of 3.5 years while the project is under construction, followed by 6.5 years of occupancy in the property.

Purchase price	$1,800,000
BSD	$59,600
CPF + cash	$820,000
Loan required	$1,039,600

Progressive payment plan

Considering you have a significant amount of CPF and cash, these funds will be used to cover the monthly repayments during the initial stages. This calculation assumes an interest rate of 4% and a loan tenure of 25 years.

Stage	% of purchase price	Disbursement amount	Monthly estimated interest	Monthly estimated principal	Monthly estimated repayment	Duration*	Total interest cost
Completion of foundation	5%	$0	$0	$0	$0	6-9 months (from launch)	$0
Completion of reinforced concrete	10%	$0	$0	$0	$0	6-9 months	$0
Completion of brick wall	5%	$49,600 (3% loan disbursed)	$165	$96	$261	3-6 months	$990
Completion of ceiling/roofing	5%	$139,600	$465	$272	$737	3-6 months	$2,790
Completion of electrical wiring/plumbing	5%	$229,600	$765	$447	$1,212	3-6 months	$4,590
Completion of roads/car parks/drainage	5%	$319,600	$1,065	$622	$1,687	3-6 months	$6,390
Issuance of TOP	25%	$769,600	$2,565	$1,497	$4,062	Usually a year before CSC	$15,390
Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC)	15%	$1,039,600	$3,465	$2,022	$5,487	Monthly repayment until property is sold	$228,690
						Total interest paid in 10 years	$258,840

*We will assume the longest duration at every stage

Cost incurred

BSD	$59,600
Interest expense	$258,840
Property tax	$18,720
Maintenance fees (Assuming $350/month)	$27,300
Rental expense	$159,600
Renovation cost*	$30,000
Total costs	$554,060

*Depends on the extent of work done

Buy a resale

Similarly, we will assume that you max out your budget at $1.8M and hold the property for 10 years. 

BSD	$59,600
Interest expense	$360,739
Property tax	$28,800
Maintenance fees (Assuming $350/month)	$42,000
Renovation cost*	$50,000
Total costs	$541,139

*Depends on the extent of work done

What should you do?

Reviewing resale transactions from January this year to the present, with a budget of $1.8M, for units that are minimally 1,000 sq ft in D03, 10, and 11, here are some projects you could consider:

Project	District	Tenure	Completion year
Allsworth Park	10	999 years	1985
Dynasty Garden	10	Freehold	1979
Emerald Park	3	99 years	1993
Harvest Mansions	3	99 years	1996
Loft @ Nathan	10	Freehold	2014
M21	11	Freehold	2010
Mon Jervois	10	99 years	2016
River Place	3	99 years	1999
Spring Grove	10	99 years	1996
Stevens Loft	10	Freehold	2003
Tanglin Regency	10	99 years	1998
Tanglin View	3	99 years	2001

We recommend consulting a property agent for a more detailed analysis of the potential developments.

Since you are a family of 3, we assume you'll need at least three bedrooms or a 2-bedroom unit with a study. Unfortunately, within your budget, there are currently no new launches in your preferred districts that offer these unit types. Therefore, you may need to consider resale properties or explore options outside these areas.

When comparing the associated costs between a new launch and a resale property over a 10-year period, the difference is not particularly significant. As previously noted, resale properties can still appreciate in value - potentially as much as, or even more than, new launches if the right property is chosen.

If you are open to considering locations outside your preferred districts, you might think about purchasing a new launch elsewhere and moving in after your son graduates from primary school, especially since you would need to rent for three years regardless.

Given your lower outstanding loan, another option you might consider is maintaining the status quo, which would likely result in significantly lower costs. Let's quickly review your current property’s performance. Since your flat is now 21 years old, we’ll focus on 4-room flats in Bukit Merah that were completed in 2003.

Year	Bukit Merah 4-room flats completed in 2003
2013	$694,733
2014	$670,556
2015	$664,295
2016	$665,505
2017	$678,792
2018	$675,995
2019	$686,274
2020	$675,265
2021	$700,725
2022	$746,746
2023	$798,990
Average	1.46%

Costs incurred

Interest expense (Assuming a remaining loan tenure of 20 years and 4% interest)	$123,768
Property tax	$8,800
Town council service & conservancy fees (Assuming $72/month)	$8,640
Total costs	$141,208

Let’s compare the average annual growth rates required to break even in ten years for the 3 options.

Potential pathway	Annual growth rate needed to breakeven
Buy a new launch	3.08%
Buy a resale	3.01%
Remain status quo	1.41%

Looking at the growth rates of the different property types over the past decade, the rates needed to break even appear achievable across all three options. 

Being the sole breadwinner, it may be better to err on the side of caution and remain status quo. However, buying a private property gives you access to things like facilities and also the potential for greater appreciation. However, as you can see from the costs, the specific development you select will be crucial given it’s a large financial commitment - which ultimately might not be worth making the jump if you balance the risk/reward in your position.