Are More Property Cooling Measures Coming to Singapore In 2025?
Thanks to a recent newspaper article, many people are asking if new cooling measures have already kicked in.
Which is disappointing for so many reasons, not least being that so few read beyond the headline these days. Some of you may know what I’m referring to: a recent newspaper article which raised the possibility of ABSD being charged to Singaporean buyers (even first-time buyers), for properties exceeding $1 million.
The article is just discussing the possibility of that, but you know what social media is like. Share a headline, and within 20 minutes people are yelling about it like it’s a fact as real as gravity.
In any case, it has prompted a whole different kind of discussion. From existing landlords to house hunters, the question is “WHY WOULD THEY PRINT THAT?”
And I do admit, it seems weirdly specific. Enough that some people would ask if this is some sort of litmus test or early warning: perhaps it’s the government gauging reactions to such a move. It’s also an issue of timing I suppose; we have a new Prime Minister, a General Election is no later than November next year, and so on. That’s the sort of thing that sparks further paranoia.
But to be clear, I haven’t heard anything from an official channel yet
At this point (one day after Christmas in 2024) I haven’t seen any press releases, gotten any messages, etc. that specifically state we’re going to have a five per cent ABSD on homes above $1 million; or anything that says ABSD rates are going up.
I won’t say it’s impossible, however, for two reasons:
First, whenever we’ve had an announcement about ABSD, it’s always been for ABSD rates to go up. We’ve never seen them go down, ever. So that’s the direction I expect stamp duties to go whenever the policy gets tweaked.
Second, we are at a point where the price gap between HDB flats and private condos – particularly new launch condos – is very wide. The typical three-bedder at a new launch is at the $2 million+ mark today, a price that – just around a decade ago – we might have associated with a condo on Orchard Road.
And while private and HDB markets are very different, they’re not entirely divorced from each other. As one example, the need to bridge the price gap could push HDB owners toward ever higher asking prices, and rising Cash Over Valuation (COV) rates.
That said, the government has never targeted Singaporeans buying a single home before.
Cooling measures have always been targeted at those trying to own multiple residential properties. So far, ABSD has never been levelled upon Singapore citizens who are purchasing a single home. If the ABSD rates target even the first home, that would signify a major shift, and one that would discourage upgrading as well as those seeking rental income.
But would it stop the rise of million-dollar flats?
I actually don’t think so. Because the people buying million-dollar flats include those who are flush with cash from having sold off a private property, and are willing to indulge in their final stop of the property market. If a COV in the hundreds of thousands doesn’t stop them, a five per cent ABSD rate isn’t going to do it.For those who do sell their million-dollar flats later, well, they’ll just price it higher because they paid five per cent more. And in certain areas like Bishan, Queenstown, etc., they’ll still be able to find willing buyers.
I’m generally of the opinion that, if we want to stop the rise of million-dollar flats, we’re better off applying loan curbs. I still believe it was the Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) and Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) that contributed more to cooling the market, than ABSD. And that would also have the added advantage of preventing overleveraged buyers.
So if there are going to be cooling measures going ahead, that’s the more reasonable form I hope it will take.
Meanwhile in other property news…
- These are some of the most expensive HDB flats right now, but could they be worth it for the price? Even if it’s in your budget? Take a look and see if it’s justified, despite the price tag.
- Some people got Christmas gifts that would buy Santa’s workshop. Check out some of these big wins that surprisingly happened on Christmas day itself.
- You’ve probably seen the KINEX mall, but did you know there’s a condo on top of it? That’s a location that should be doing well, and it’s freehold too. But here’s my take on why it isn’t performing as expected.
- Retirement homes are definitely not all alike and check out how good they can get in places like London. We need to take a page from them.
Weekly Sales Roundup (16 December – 22 December)
Top 5 Most Expensive New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| MEYER BLUE | $5,977,000 | 1905 | $3,137 | FH |
| KLIMT CAIRNHILL | $4,664,020 | 1432 | $3,258 | FH |
| THE CONTINUUM | $3,686,000 | 1270 | $2,902 | FH |
| LENTOR MANSION | $3,302,000 | 1485 | $2,223 | 99 yrs (2023) |
| LENTORIA | $2,784,000 | 1206 | $2,309 | 99 yrs (2022) |
Top 5 Cheapest New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| KASSIA | $1,171,000 | 549 | $2,133 | FH |
| THE LAKEGARDEN RESIDENCES | $1,315,500 | 527 | $2,494 | 99 yrs (2023) |
| LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES | $1,334,000 | 603 | $2,213 | 99 yrs (2022) |
| CHUAN PARK | $1,818,300 | 732 | $2,484 | 99 yrs (2024) |
| THE MYST | $1,900,000 | 850 | $2,234 | 99 yrs (2023) |
Top 5 Most Expensive Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| MARINA BAY RESIDENCES | $6,300,000 | 2368 | $2,660 | 99 yrs (2005) |
| LEEDON RESIDENCE | $5,650,000 | 2110 | $2,678 | FH |
| PEACH GARDEN | $5,050,000 | 2766 | $1,826 | FH |
| THE METROPOLITAN CONDOMINIUM | $4,900,000 | 2831 | $1,731 | 99 yrs (2006) |
| ST THOMAS SUITES | $4,831,200 | 2013 | $2,400 | FH |
Top 5 Cheapest Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| PARC ROSEWOOD | $665,000 | 431 | $1,545 | 99 yrs (2011) |
| HIGH PARK RESIDENCES | $700,000 | 388 | $1,806 | 99 yrs (2014) |
| PEOPLE’S PARK COMPLEX | $700,000 | 409 | $1,711 | 99 yrs (1968) |
| SKIES MILTONIA | $712,000 | 484 | $1,470 | 99 yrs (2012) |
| URBAN VISTA | $750,000 | 441 | $1,699 | 99 yrs (2012) |
Top 5 Biggest Winners
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| FABER GARDEN CONDOMINIUM | $3,000,000 | 1679 | $1,787 | $2,245,000 | 18 Years |
| BOTANIC GARDENS VIEW | $3,150,000 | 1259 | $2,501 | $1,979,000 | 28 Years |
| DAKOTA RESIDENCES | $3,700,000 | 1830 | $2,022 | $1,784,800 | 16 Years |
| THE TESSARINA | $2,820,000 | 1356 | $2,079 | $1,620,000 | 24 Years |
| HILLINGTON GREEN | $2,560,000 | 1528 | $1,675 | $1,594,000 | 25 Years |
Top 5 Biggest Losers
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| SEASCAPE | $3,980,000 | 2174 | $1,830 | -$1,970,000 | 13 Years |
| MARINA BAY RESIDENCES | $6,300,000 | 2368 | $2,660 | -$600,000 | 1 Year |
| MARINA BAY SUITES | $3,005,000 | 1615 | $1,861 | -$40,000 | 15 Years |
| URBAN VISTA | $750,000 | 441 | $1,699 | -$8,212 | 12 Years |
| 76 SHENTON | $1,190,000 | 592 | $2,010 | $4,000 | 7 Years |
Transaction Breakdown
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Re: “That said, the government has never targeted Singaporeans buying a single home before”… what is BSD?