In a Weak Economy, This Policy Hurts Singaporean Homeowners Most
The 15-month wait-out period might soon be on the chopping block, and I can’t wait for it to happen.
This policy was introduced back in September 2022 and is still in place for now. Unless you’re aged 55 or older and rightsizing to a 4-room or smaller flat, you need to wait 15 months between the sale of your private property, and the purchase of a resale flat.
(Trying to get a BTO flat is even worse; you need to wait 30 months to apply for a BTO flat after selling a private home.)
This could, in theory, slow the number of million-dollar flats entering the market, from those who are capitalising on strong gains from their private property purchases: prices rose significantly in the aftermath of COVID, and someone with a $1.6 million condo unit to sell can afford premium flats like Pinnacle @ Duxton, SkyTerrace @ Dawson, and so forth.
But the truth is, the policy hasn’t moved the needle
In the linked report, it does say that from “From Jan 1 to Sept 29 in 2022, this group made up about 34 per cent of people who bought million-dollar flats. After the wait-out period was implemented, the proportion dropped to 12 per cent between January and November in 2024.”
And I salute that. But let’s look at the practical, overall changes in the resale flat market:
In 2022, when the policy came into being, we had 370 flats that sold for $1 million or more. In 2023, the number rose to 470 units; and by 2024, the number had reached 1,035.
Of course, I don’t expect the waiting-out period to solely stop the rise in million-dollar flats; but it clearly hasn’t done much either. And if it’s not working, what’s the point of keeping it?
I’m not sure why the government still has to review it to consider lifting it. It’s really best that this waiting period go away now, for one important reason:
Right now, the economy isn’t in great shape.
Our growth outlook has turned cautious, and there are storm clouds for manufacturing and financial services. This is also against a backdrop of more layoffs in tech and reports of former employees facing difficult job hunts.
I’ve encountered a number of readers and friends who did well in the aftermath of COVID, upgraded to a condo, and are now being squeezed by the mortgage. Some industry professionals will say we’re “safe” because of measures like the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR), but that’s an abstraction: when you lose your job and currently need to deliver food, it’s immaterial whether your mortgage was 55 per cent, 30 per cent, etc. of your former income.
You will need to sell, and having a 15-month wait time, during which you may need to rent, is just a cruel extra hurdle.
On top of this, resale supply is going to be more important than ever, as we pivot to the Core Central Region (CCR)
More than half of the remaining launches for the year (14 out of 22) are going to be in the CCR.
Despite the many excited sales pitches about the CCR being undervalued (true in most cases), the reality is that most families can’t afford a CCR property. At least not unless they’re willing to squeeze into a small unit, like a two-bedder.
And yet, this is what they may be forced into, because resale condo supply is at a serious low. Sellers are few and far between because the cost of a replacement property is posing an obstacle. So, in light of this, allowing sellers to right-size quickly – whether or not they’re 55 or older – could see more resale condos released into the market this year.
It’s time to retire this policy.
The market has changed. The rationale behind the wait-out period is well-founded, but the practical effects haven’t panned out. And in the current era of trade wars and uncertainty, it could end up unnecessarily hurting younger Singaporean families, who need to downsize and contain their costs.
Meanwhile in other property news…
- We located some of the most affordable 4-room flats in central Singapore, starting from just $495,000.
- Older leasehold condos are shunned by many Singaporeans; and yet we found some prudent homeowners who chose these units, with no regrets.
- Looking for a new condo a few years down the road? Here are some potentially interesting en-bloc sites to watch…if they succeed, that is.
- Affinity at Serangoon is a mega-development that made headlines when it launched – but how has this giant project fared against its smaller neighbour, The Garden Residences? Here’s a Stacked Pro deep dive.
Weekly Sales Roundup (19 May – 25 May)
Top 5 Most Expensive New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| 32 GILSTEAD | $15,100,000 | 4209 | $3,588 | FH |
| WATTEN HOUSE | $7,968,000 | 2368 | $3,365 | FH |
| CANNINGHILL PIERS | $7,485,000 | 2788 | $2,685 | 99 yrs (2021) |
| PINETREE HILL | $4,614,000 | 1733 | $2,662 | 99 yrs (2022) |
| NAVA GROVE | $4,329,100 | 1722 | $2,514 | 99 yrs (2024) |
Top 5 Cheapest New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| ONE MARINA GARDENS | $1,252,445 | 420 | $2,983 | 99 yrs (2023) |
| THE COLLECTIVE AT ONE SOPHIA | $1,283,000 | 452 | $2,838 | 99 years |
| LUMINA GRAND | $1,417,000 | 936 | $1,513 | 99 yrs (2022) |
| BLOOMSBURY RESIDENCES | $1,425,000 | 570 | $2,498 | 99 yrs (2024) |
| NOVO PLACE | $1,456,000 | 883 | $1,650 | 99 yrs (2023) |
Top 5 Most Expensive Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| YONG AN PARK | $7,000,000 | 3111 | $2,250 | FH |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $6,400,000 | 2250 | $2,845 | 99 yrs (2011) |
| PEBBLE BAY | $5,500,000 | 2626 | $2,094 | 99 yrs (1994) |
| CAIRNHILL CREST | $4,700,000 | 1981 | $2,373 | FH |
| THE MARBELLA | $3,999,999 | 1625 | $2,461 | FH |
Top 5 Cheapest Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| VIVA VISTA | $680,000 | 355 | $1,914 | FH |
| THE WATER EDGE | $750,000 | 431 | $1,742 | FH |
| LE REGAL | $760,000 | 689 | $1,103 | FH |
| EIGHT RIVERSUITES | $825,000 | 441 | $1,869 | 99 yrs (2011) |
| THE GARDEN RESIDENCES | $830,000 | 452 | $1,836 | 99 yrs (2017) |
Top 5 Biggest Winners
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| PEBBLE BAY | $5,500,000 | 2626 | $2,094 | $3,345,000 | 29 Years |
| THE MARBELLA | $3,999,999 | 1625 | $2,461 | $2,754,999 | 22 Years |
| EURO-ASIA COURT | $3,380,000 | 1668 | $2,026 | $2,130,000 | 26 Years |
| PANDAN VALLEY | $2,750,000 | 1668 | $1,648 | $1,751,000 | 29 Years |
| THE CALROSE | $2,650,000 | 1389 | $1,908 | $1,695,000 | 17 Years |
Top 5 Biggest Losers
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| HILLTOPS | $3,300,000 | 1270 | $2,598 | -$800,000 | 12 Years |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $6,400,000 | 2250 | $2,845 | -$703,250 | 8 Years |
| DEVONSHIRE RESIDENCES | $1,075,000 | 495 | $2,171 | -$169,000 | 14 Years |
| ONE PEARL BANK | $1,398,000 | 560 | $2,498 | -$83,000 | 6 Years |
| FOURTH AVENUE RESIDENCES | $1,168,000 | 506 | $2,309 | -$69,000 | 4 Years |
Transaction Breakdown
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