How High Will Singapore Property Prices Get In 2025? Here’s What AI Predicts
Everything is being overtaken by AI, including – some have claimed – the jobs of analysts and realtors. But how well can a few strings of code stand up to human intuition, especially something as unpredictable as the Singapore property market? We got ChatGPT to create predictions of the property market, and ran them past some human opinions. To make things a little more interesting, we’ll check again at the end of the year, to see who “won” in terms of accuracy:
What does ChatGPT predict?
Here’s what it had to say:
The Singapore property market is expected to experience a year of relative stability in 2025, marked by a gradual return to normalcy following the pandemic-driven boom and subsequent cooling measures. While significant price surges are unlikely, nuanced shifts in buyer demand, government policy, and broader economic conditions will shape the year ahead.
1. Price Growth to Moderate
After several years of robust growth, residential property prices are likely to see more moderate increases in 2025. Analysts predict single-digit growth, with prices potentially rising between 3% and 5%. The combination of cooling measures implemented in 2023, such as higher Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners and second-time buyers, along with elevated interest rates, is expected to keep speculative demand in check.
What we think: ChatGPT is playing it safe here, mostly parroting what analysts have said in the news. This is likely true for mass-market properties in the OCR. However, we think it overlooks a few things.
The first is the impact of the higher ABSD rates on CCR properties. The last time we saw a US-China trade war, it drove Chinese buyers into the Singapore luxury property market. Granted, the situation is different today, given the much higher 60 per cent ABSD on Singapore properties. But we need to consider that China’s domestic property development scene is troubled, and that the extent of the trade war this time around is much bigger. Factors may still be sufficient to draw foreign buyers, regardless of the higher ABSD. Also note that some other nationalities – like Americans – don’t pay the higher ABSD, they pay the same tax rates as Singaporeans.
2. Resale Market to Remain Active
While new launch volumes may remain modest due to limited land supply and cautious developer sentiment, the resale market should continue to see healthy activity. Resale properties, particularly larger units, are gaining popularity among families seeking immediate occupancy and better value compared to newly launched units. Mature estates with established amenities and transport links are expected to outperform newer areas.
What we think: Sure, there’s a lot of demand for resale units now, especially older and larger ones. But this doesn’t take into account the lack of availability. As any realtor today can tell you, the issue isn’t finding a buyer for a resale condo – it’s finding a seller.
Because the cost of a replacement property (new or resale) is so high, very few people are happy to sell their property right now. They may be selling high, but they’d also have to buy high. This is already having an impact on the en-bloc scene, where more owners are turning down collective sales because a replacement is tough to find.
Higher ABSD rates also factor into this. For the Singaporeans who are lucky enough to own multiple properties, would they really want to sell their second or third property? After all, replacing that property would now mean incurring the substantially higher ABSD rate. This is another reason for owners to hold on, which further limits supply in the resale market.
So while we don’t argue that many buyers will want a big resale unit (especially given new launch prices), we’re not sure about healthy volumes. Fewer people seem inclined to sell their existing homes.
3. HDB Upgraders to Drive Demand
The influx of HDB flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) will fuel continued demand for private condominiums. With many homeowners cashing out of their HDB flats at record prices, there is likely to be sustained interest in mass-market condos, particularly in the Outside Central Region (OCR). This segment will remain resilient as HDB upgraders seek affordable options for family living.
What we think: This is probably true, although it’s not a big leap: we’ve been seeing the same thing for years. The bulk of buyers have been HDB upgraders since around 2019 by our estimates.
This is a big reason why one and two-bedders may not be ideal for resale gains these days: most HDB upgraders are family units, so they’ll want at least a three-bedder.
This is also a good reason to consider projects surrounded by HDB enclaves, since future buyers will likely come from there (upgraders tend to pick options closer to their former home). This creates a reversal of a past trend, where it used to be more desirable to have fewer HDB blocks around you.
4. Foreign Demand to Stay Subdued
The high ABSD rates introduced in 2023 have significantly dampened foreign interest in Singapore’s residential market. Unless there is a policy revision, foreign demand is expected to remain muted, with interest primarily focused on high-end properties in the Core Central Region (CCR). However, Singapore’s reputation as a safe and stable investment destination may still attract ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) seeking long-term capital preservation.
What we think: As we mentioned in point 1, ChatGPT may be underrating the demand caused by the Trump administration. Trade wars tend to cause havoc among companies, and with equities markets in general. That might prompt a flight toward safer and more stable assets. Granted, a 60 per cent ABSD is the strongest disincentive we’ve seen to date; but it remains to be seen if this will deter the most affluent buyers seeking safety.
5. Rental Market to Stabilise
After a period of exceptional rental growth between 2021 and 2023, the rental market is expected to stabilise in 2025. The completion of new residential developments and the return of expatriates at more measured levels will contribute to more balanced conditions. Landlords might face increased competition, particularly in areas with a high concentration of new completions.
What we think: 2025 is likely to see a big divergence between mass-market rental units, and rental units in the CCR (as well as among some higher-end RCR units).
In the OCR, the completion of many 1,000+ unit mega-developments in recent years, such as Normanton Park, Treasure at Tampines, Florence Residences, Affinity at Serangoon, etc. is likely to soften the rental market. The supply crunch in the aftermath of Covid seems to be largely resolved.
In the CCR, however, there may be a sharper correction. Economic instability tends to turn companies cautious: that often means fewer expensive expatriate workers, or shrinking housing allowances. This might cause affluent tenants to move out into the RCR, or even in some cases into the OCR.
So even with a much higher supply, we suspect the OCR might do better on the rental front than the CCR.
6. Government Policies to Remain Proactive
Singapore’s government is likely to continue its proactive stance on property policies to ensure affordability and market stability. Further land supply may be released through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme to meet housing demand. Additionally, more Build-To-Order (BTO) flats in attractive locations, combined with revised eligibility criteria, will help ease upward pressure on the private market.
What we think: The government isn’t “proactive,” it’s an outright active force in the Singapore property market. MND, HDB, URA, BCA, SLA, and the other “alphabet soup” of government bodies have a way bigger impact on the property scene, than even the biggest developers.
There has been a lot of attention on HDB affordability of late; and perhaps the only reason we haven’t seen a cooling measure is the government waiting to see the impact of Plus and Prime flats. If these can help to moderate prices in the longer term, there may be no need for more aggressive policies.
But as ChatGPT says, we have zero doubts the government will continue to intervene heavily in the property market.
Conclusion: A Year of Cautious Optimism
The Singapore property market in 2025 will likely be defined by cautious optimism, with moderate price growth, a stable rental environment, and evolving buyer preferences. While external factors such as global economic conditions and interest rate movements will remain key variables, Singapore’s strong fundamentals and sound regulatory framework position the market for a sustainable and steady performance in the year ahead.
What we think: It is likely the coming year will be much more volatile, although we agree the existing regulatory framework has prepared us well. Policy measures like debt servicing ratios and tighter Loan To Value (LTV) ratios have braced the market against interest rate fluctuations; and it also means most property owners are well capitalised. We doubt we’ll see many mortgagee sales, even if the economy worsens.
However, a steep drop in interest rates (possible as the Trump administration likes to pressure the US Federal Reserve to do this) could drive up home prices again. And given that most tenants in Singapore are foreigners, a volatile economy could make for a rather challenging rental market; we’d be less optimistic about rental being a “stable environment.”
One thing we do agree with: even in bumpier times ahead, it’s far more likely that the prices of properties will grow at a slower pace, rather than flatten out or even dip. Buyers hoping for an actual price decrease are probably being too optimistic: the resale market is already contending with high replacement property prices, while developers have little room to reduce new launch condo prices.
Follow us on Stacked, and we’ll check up on this later in the year, to see who turned out to be more correct. If you’d like to get in touch for a more in-depth consultation, you can do so here.
