Commentary 4 Possible Locations Of Future Prime BTO Flats Under The PLH Model
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Ryan J
- November 2, 2021
- 7 min read
With the evolving Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) model housing, we’ve cleared one barrier to having more central/prime area flats. One thing is quite clear: prime doesn’t just mean expensive. So the first project to be launched under the PLH model will be at Rochor. With that in mind, where are the areas we’re likely to see these projects? Here are some calculated guesses, based on what we’ve seen from URA maps:
What is a “prime” area?
HDB has made it clear that “prime” doesn’t just mean a desirable or mature area. For example, Bishan is one of the most desirable locations for resale flats (as evidenced by its new $1.36 million record-breaker at Natura Loft); however, its new flats there won’t fall under the PLH model.
The general consensus is that the PLH model will appear within the Central Area, as shown on the URA Master Plan:
Some of these areas cover Marina Bay, Raffles Place, City Hall, Rochor, Bugis, and parts of Newton. There are many mature estates just outside of these areas – such as Boon Keng, Little India, and Kallang – where flats have high values. However, these don’t seem to be considered prime.
For example, the Owen Road launch site for November 2021 (Kallang/Whampoa) is not under the PLH model. This is even though it’s just outside the Central Area.
As seen below, Sungei Road and Race Course define the boundaries of the Central Area:
This forms the basis for our calculated guesses, as to where the PLH model might appear. To do this, we aligned the Central Area as shown by URA, with the updated Central Area Master Plan. These are where we spotted the potential plots:
Using the alignment of Central locations provided by URA and cross-referencing with the updated Central area master plan, we were able to identify some of the possible locations of the future Prime BTOs sites under the new PLH scheme. Do note that this is an educated guess as to where the prime locations BTOs will be.
Possible location #1: Jalan Kubor/Victoria St site
Syed Alwi Road, and Race Course Road, demarcate the Central Area here. As such, the land plot along Victoria Street/Jalan Kubor falls within the Central Area.
This land plot is slated for residential development and has a Gross Plot Ratio (GPR) of 4.9. This is similar to the GPR of the pilot PLH site, along Weld Road (November 2021).
Possible location #2: Urban Neighbourhood at Marina South
As far back as 2019, URA mentioned a plan to build around 9,000 new homes in the Marina South area. This is next to Gardens by The Bay, and will form a car-lite “urban neighbourhood”.
Homes will be built atop shops and lifestyle areas, blending residential and commercial properties. If this sounds familiar, it’s probably because the pilot PLH scheme involves mixed-used HDB developments – the Rochor prime flats, for instance, are right on top of the Jalan Besar MRT station, and will also incorporate commercial elements.
Besides this, the Singapore government tends to have a certain perspective in mind, when they use words like “neighbourhood”. One of these elements is inclusivity; there’s a desire to prevent the entrenchment of the wealthy, in certain areas.
“Entrenched wealth” is precisely the make-up of the Marina South area right now. Coupled with buzzwords like “community” facilities and “car-lite neighbourhood”, we wouldn’t be surprised to see prime flats here.
Possible location #3: Pearl’s Hill and York Hill vicinity
Again, we can pick up echoes of the need for inclusivity, in URA’s plan for Pearl’s Hill. There’s a strong emphasis on transforming it into a community space (including a playground and social space) for residents and the public.
Pear’s Hill is also within the Central Area, and few land plots here are slated for residential development. But if residential is off the cards, why open Pearl’s Hill Care Home (a care home for recuperating seniors) here in 2016?
On top of that, Pearl’s Hill City Park is one of Singapore’s 13 service reservoirs. There have been extensive attempts to renew it and link it to other public parks, forming a “green chain” all the way to the Singapore River. This is the sort of green pathway that we notice HDB likes to have near estates.
Also, we note that Chinatown and the former Pearl Bank Apartments were places of historical note; and we don’t think URA is eager to replace the memories with just more high-end condos. So we think there’s real potential for PLH flats here:
Possible location #4: Keppel Club
Keppel Bay Golf Course will be gone by March 2023, freeing up 2000 ha. of land. This is part of building the Greater Southern Waterfront (GSW).
Now we 100 per cent know that the GSW will include prime flats, along some part(s) of the stretch. The government said in 2019 that around 9,000 new homes, private and public, will be built here. There will also be rental flats, so there’s zero doubt that the PLH model will make an appearance.
Our guess, however, is that the PLH model will appear over the vicinity of the former Keppel Club. This makes sense for a number of reasons: it would provide inclusive housing near Mount Faber (a rather wealthy and exclusive area, despite being a favourite local spot), and it would revitalise the ageing Telok Blangah Estate.
Here’s another guess: far into the future, some SERS sites might be turned into prime flats
We know that only around four to five per cent of HDB estates will benefit from the Selective En-Bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS). These are reserved for the best estates, where the land value significantly outweighs what’s currently built on it.
While most Singaporeans consider SERS a windfall, some former residents have made, uh, pointed remarks, when they see a condo take the place of their former flat.
Even when there’s a good reason for this, it’s not a great look. It can give the impression that regular Singaporeans can be “chased off” when richer people want their land.
For now, it’s clear that the PLH model is reserved for the Central Area and GSW. But perhaps further in the future, it could be considered for some of the most high-profile SERS events. The government has said that the PLH model is an evolving one, and we can expect fine-tuning over the years.
Seeing SERS sites turn into PLH model flats is not a move that would surprise us. Besides, HDB’s goal of one PLH site per year is quite ambitious, given the limited number of possible sites. Future land for this has to come from somewhere.
For more on the situation as it unfolds, visit us on Stacked. You can also check out our in-depth reviews of new and resale properties alike.
