Condo vs HDB: The Estates With the Smallest (and Widest) Price Gaps

With new launch condos both pricier and more compact, it’s no surprise that some buyers are weighing resale flats as an alternative. In 2025, a two-bedder condo can cost upwards of $1.7 million, enough to buy a central five-room flat. But the condo-HDB price gap isn’t uniform. It can vary sharply by town, unit type, and even the age of the project.

In this study, we analysed resale and sub-sale condo transactions alongside HDB resale deals from 2024 to mid-2025. The result: a breakdown of the price gap estate by estate. If you’re deciding between a condo or flat in a particular location, this comparison will show you where a resale HDB may represent better value, or where the gap is surprisingly narrow.

Let’s start by looking at the general price difference between condos and resale flats over the past decade

From 2014 to 2024, the general price gap between condos and flats rose by almost nine per cent. HDB resale prices increased by about 38 per cent over that time, while condo prices rose by around 18 per cent.

(The quicker percentage gains of resale flats are not exceptional, as they’re starting from a much lower price.)

There is no consistent year-to-year pattern in the size of the gap. The difference often depends on the mix of units sold in a given year, with factors such as age, size, and location of the developments playing a large role in the averages.

Some of these are likely due to external factors – for example, the price gap narrowed by over nine per cent in 2020, but this was due to the pandemic. To do something more useful with the data, we need to zero in further on specific towns, factoring in unit ages and sizes.

Breakdown based on location, age, and size

We matched HDB towns with their corresponding planning areas for condominiums, based on URA transaction data. This allows us to compare price gaps on a more detailed, estate-by-estate basis.

2-bedroom condo vs 3-room HDB (sized between 600 – 800 sq ft.)

Note: We need to compare the units by square footage, and not just the designated bedroom count. This is because in older condo developments, a two-bedder could well be a 1,000+ sq ft unit; and in some condos, there are two-bedders that are penthouse units with premium pricing. This would skew the data too much to make it useful.

Currently aged between 5 and 10 y/o

Among homes aged between five and 10 years, the smallest condo-HDB gap was seen in Pasir Ris. But this is because the Jovell is the only project in the area with two-bedders sized between 600 and 800 sq ft, so this is reflecting a very specific comparison. 

Currently aged between 11 and 20 y/o

For homes in the 11 to 20 year age range, the smallest condo–HDB gap was seen in Woodlands. Two-bedders here average about $891,000 compared to $483,000 for three-room flats, leaving a difference of just over $408,000.

Looking at the transactions, several projects in Woodlands have two-bedders within the 600 to 800 sq ft range. Since Woodlands has multiple condo projects in the 600–800 sq ft range, these two-bedder points of comparison (Bellewoods, Parc Rosewood, Rosewood Suites, Woodhaven) set a more realistic average for the area. 

At the other end of the scale, Queenstown and Jurong East showed the widest differences, with gaps of around $950,000 or more. Plausibly, there is ongoing demand for them despite their age, because investors recognise the high rentability of these areas (For Jurong East, that would be a more recent development, following its transformation to our “second CBD.”)

Currently aged between 31 and 40 y/o

Among homes aged 31 to 40 years, the smallest condo–HDB gap was in Hougang. Two-bedders here averaged about $827,000, compared to $424,000 for three-room flats, leaving a difference of roughly $403,000.

Looking at the transactions, Hougang Green was the only project with two-bedders sized between 600 and 800 sq ft, which explains why it shapes the data for this segment.

At the other end, Bukit Merah showed a much wider gap of about $841,000, reflecting the premium that older central region condos can still command over flats of similar size.

3-bedroom condo vs 4-room HDB (sized between 850 – 1100 sq ft)

As above, we will compare based on actual square footage, rather than the designated number of rooms.

Currently aged between 5 and 10 y/o

For homes aged between five and 10 years, the smallest condo–HDB gap was in Woodlands. Three-bedder condos here averaged about $1.23 million, compared to $615,000 for four-room flats, a difference of around $616,000.

However, looking at the transactions, it seems Northwave was the only project in Woodlands with three-bedders sized between 850 and 1,100 sq ft., so it defines this comparison.

At the opposite end, Bedok and Bukit Merah recorded some of the widest gaps, exceeding $1.3 to $1.4 million.

Currently aged between 11 and 20 y/o

For homes aged 11 to 20 years, the smallest condo–HDB gap was in Yishun. Three-bedder condos here averaged about $1.26 million compared to $626,000 for four-room flats, leaving a difference of roughly $631,000.

Looking into the transactions, Yishun has several projects with three-bedders in the 850 to 1100 sq ft range, which helps to anchor the data:

Note that Miltonia Residences only had a single transaction in this range

At the opposite end, towns like Queenstown, Jurong East, and Bishan showed gaps of over $1.3 million. That’s not too surprising; at the 11 to 20-year mark, lease decay is really not yet sufficient to outweigh the convenience of these locations. As an interesting detail, the average price for 4-room flats in Jurong East is lower than Yishun, which is surprising as most would consider Jurong East to be better developed with better amenities. Perhaps the price points of some of the flats still haven’t caught up post-transformation. 

Currently aged between 21 and 30 y/o

For homes aged 21 to 30 years, the smallest condo–HDB gap was in Woodlands. Three-bedder condos here averaged about $960,000 compared to $529,000 for four-room flats, a difference of around $431,000.

Looking at the transactions, The Woodgrove was the only project in Woodlands with three-bedders sized between 850 and 1,100 sq ft, so it gets to define this comparison. 

On the other end, Serangoon recorded the widest gap, with three-bedder condos averaging close to $1.61 million versus $621,000 for flats, a difference of about $992,000. 

Speculatively, this might be because Serangoon does not have as many major condo projects as larger towns like, say, Tampines. The transactions that do occur in Serangoon tend to come from smaller and sometimes even boutique developments, which are often priced higher on a per square foot basis. Coupled with the limited supply, it can explain the wider price gap.

Currently aged between 31 and 40 y/o

For homes aged 31 to 40 years, the smallest condo–HDB gap was in Bukit Batok. Three-bedder condos averaged about $1.12 million compared to $492,000 for four-room flats, leaving a difference of roughly $623,000. 

Unfortunately, this may not be too helpful.

Parkview Apartment was the only project with three-bedders sized between 850 and 1,100 sq ft., and there was just one recorded sale in the past 18 months; so it doesn’t really prove much. 

Bukit Merah showed a much wider gap of about $1.07 million, which is quite impressive for a condo at the 40-year mark. It’s quite rare for condos to last till this age, as we explain in this article; so there are limited sample sizes to work with. 

Conclusion

There are some common factors among the condos and HDB towns with the smallest price gaps. 

In several cases, the condos involved were former Executive Condominiums (ECs), which tend to be priced lower than typical private developments. Many of these projects are also less accessible, being located further from MRT stations or key amenities. This is especially true for older ECs in the 2010s or earlier, when it was even expected that ECs would be far from public transport. And for the earliest ECs from the ‘90s, differences in quality, such as in the spacing between blocks or the unit finishing, are sometimes tangibly worse than private counterparts. 

For some projects, this may explain why their average prices are closer to HDB flats, resulting in narrower gaps.

That said, this may not hold true for ECs built in more recent years, as the quality of new ECs has now improved tremendously. Also, as more MRT stations are built, some ECs may find transport options improving with age. So this is a conditional factor, which you should weigh if comparing a resale flat to a resale EC. 

It also looks like in non-central estates (Woodlands, Yishun, and Pasir Ris), older condos tend to lose their premium faster. 

In these areas, we see that by the time condos reach 20 to 30 years, their prices come much closer to HDB flats of similar size. This suggests that location plays a stronger role than age in supporting condo values, as central region condos (like Bukit Merah, Queenstown, Bishan) seem better able to hold their premium even at 30+ years.

Across almost all age bands, mature and central estates show the widest condo–HDB gaps. In places like Bukit Merah, Queenstown, and Bishan, for example, we see that the 20- to 40-year-old condos can still be more than $1 million higher than nearby flats. 

This suggests that location and demand override lease decay to some extent, keeping these gaps persistently wide.

While many buyers assume condos always maintain a clear premium over HDB flats, this analysis shows that location and demand often matter far more than tenure or age. It’s not just about whether a project is a condo or an EC, it’s about recognising when the price gap is justified, and when it’s quietly eroding.

Curious how these principles apply to your own upgrading plans? Let’s chat, the right timing and estate could make a big difference.

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