Can 30+ Year-Old Leasehold Condos Still Perform? The Arcadia’s Surprising Case Study

The Arcadia is one of the most interesting condos we’ve come across. This Bukit Timah area project consists entirely of super-large four-bedder units! This is a good example to look at, in our case studies of older leasehold condos: it typifies an older project which offers higher square footage at a lower price per square foot – but it’s uncertain if this alone compensates for lease decay, older facilities, and comparison to newer layouts. Let’s take a closer look at this unusual, one-of-a-kind project:

A brief profile of The Arcadia

The Arcadia is a very niche condo located in the Bukit Timah area, where every unit is a four-bedder. These four-bedders are also gigantic by today’s standards, reaching over 3,750 sq ft. From the exterior, we can also see the old “terrace style” condo layout, common to the 1980s but almost unheard of today. Indeed, this project was completed way back in 1983 (lease beginning in 1979), and has only 164 units for 39,964 sq m.

The size is definitely a standout element, as is its tranquil location with the landed homes of Watten Estate on one side, and the landed enclave of Adam Drive on the other. 

Let’s look at how The Arcadia ranks among other older leasehold condos

Note: While The Arcadia is over 40 years old, we’ve focused on the 2016–2024 period as a more meaningful reflection of recent market trends. This is especially important given the distortion a 30-year annualised average might introduce.

Among 30+ year-old condos tracked since 1995, The Arcadia delivered the strongest annualised performance between 2016 and 2024.

Now let’s measure it against the average of older leasehold condos, across Singapore:

Average price

Average size

The price gap is very big; but it’s due to Arcadia’s sheer unit sizes (about double that of many four-bedders today!), which result in an abnormally high quantum for an older leasehold condo. 

Nonetheless, looking at percentage differences, we can see the price gap with the rest of Singapore’s older condos has narrowed since 2016. So the broader market, and of course age, has caught up. 

If we want to make a more specific comparison, there’s only one fair neighbouring project to compare to: Hillcrest Arcadia

Hillcrest Arcadia is the only true viable point of comparison. This isn’t just because they’re the most similar in age; it’s also because Hillcrest Arcadia is most similar in size (unit count). The other nearby projects tend to be of the boutique variety, so we’re skipping them as it would be an apples-to-oranges comparison. 

Average $PSF for 4-bedders

Hillcrest Arcadia has a higher price psf ($1,313 vs. $1,264) than The Arcadia, and this has been the case since 2019. However, size is again a distorting effect here: larger units tend to have a lower price psf, and vice versa.

Hillcrest has a wider unit mix and smaller units – from as small as around 700 sq ft, to as high as 2,700+ sq ft, so it’s not surprising that it has a higher price psf. Again, percentage differences give a clearer view here: between 2016 to 2024, the price gap has widened by almost 19 per cent. This indicates growing demand for Hillcrest’s smaller quantum offerings.

It’s also not hard to guess why: buyers may balk at the idea of spending over $4.75 million for an ageing leasehold condo, whatever its size! This makes Hillcrest more attractive by dint of simple affordability; and The Arcadia will be more for niche buyers who prize spaciousness above all.

(Note: Floor plan comparisons are skipped for this case study, as there are no available plans for Hillcrest Arcadia)

Next, let’s compare The Arcadia’s performance to Bukit Timah in general

The Arcadia vs all 99-year leasehold condos in Bukit Timah (only resale transactions)

Even though the annualised return for The Arcadia is technically lower, this is a phenomenal performance. The difference between The Arcadia’s annualised return and the average in Bukit Timah is only a slim 1.19 per cent difference. This is despite its advanced age (less than 60 years left on its lease), and a $4.75 million+ quantum that makes it a generally tougher sale. 

We would argue that, because of the slim price gap, The Arcadia has kept excellent pace with the wider Bukit Timah area. 

Now let’s compare The Arcadia’s returns to the wider Core Central Region (CCR):

Comparing all 99-year leasehold condos in the CCR (only resale transactions)

The CCR is a generally more volatile region; properties here tend to be more investment oriented (this earlier article provides a good example.) This is the reason for the high variance in the regional average, of -2.21 per cent to 18.46 per cent.

Between 2016 and 2024, The Arcadia has held up well in absolute terms, and it outperforms many older leasehold condos in the CCR. However, it slightly underperforms relative to its district average, and again due to the combination of age and a high quantum. 

But it’s clear that The Arcadia draws a reliable niche of buyers, who value its large unit sizes, exclusivity, and school access (more on this below.) 

Since we keep being drawn back to size, let’s look at transaction volumes of different-sized units in Bukit Timah. 

This will help to clarify if there’s strong demand for large units, which would back-up the theory that Arcadia’s size is more of a benefit than a drawback:

Unit supply in Bukit Timah (estimated)

No. of resale transactions in Bukit Timah in recent years

Based on recent resale activity in Bukit Timah, The Arcadia’s size is more of a benefit, even if it attracts a higher quantum. While four-bedroom units make up only about 19 per cent of the total private housing stock in the area, they accounted for close to five per cent of all resale transactions in 2024;  nearly on par with the five per cent seen for three-bedders. 

The resale activity around smaller units is clearly lower, with one-bedders making up 1.78 per cent of transactions, and two-bedders making up just 2.74 per cent. 

In short, larger units in Bukit Timah are seeing disproportionately higher turnover rates, suggesting that demand for space remains healthy. This helps explain why buyers continue to pay for ultra-large layouts like those at The Arcadia, despite its age.

Now let’s look at rental yields, to see if this is another factor making The Arcadia attractive.

We doubt many buyers of The Arcadia see it as a rental asset, as most landlords won’t pay a high quantum for a unit so large. Nonetheless, we don’t like to assume things, so let’s look at the rental yields regardless:

Let’s now take a look at The Arcadia’s rental yield

4-bedroom units

From 2016 to 2024, the rental yield has dropped slightly

Rental yield of other condos in the vicinity (in 2024)

4-bedroom units

The results are quite surprising. Given the high quantum and the rarity of such large units being rented out, The Arcadia does have decent rental performance. From 2016 to 2024, The Arcadia’s rental yield dipped only very slightly from 3.66 per cent to 3.22 per cent. 

When compared to its neighbour Hillcrest Arcadia in 2024, The Arcadia commands significantly higher rents due to its unit size, but also has a much higher price point. As a result, Hillcrest Arcadia edges ahead with a stronger rental yield of 3.72 per cent, compared to The Arcadia’s 3.22 per cent; but again this is very slim, and a very impressive performance for a high-quantum condo. 

 A summary of why The Arcadia continues to perform

The Arcadia is definitely an oddity in the market. Between 2016 and 2024, the price gap between The Arcadia and the broader non-landed market narrowed by around 3.8 per cent; and yet The Arcadia commanded a 59.8 per cent premium in 2024, on account of its massive units and quantum. 

Despite being priced about $2 million higher on average, The Arcadia’s rental yield is only slightly behind Hillcrest’s, and as we’ve seen from the transactions, buyers are willing to pay the high quantum, despite the lease dating back to 1979.

One contributing factor, which is less obvious from the data, is the proximity to Raffles Girls’ School and National Junior College. Both institutions are within one kilometre of The Arcadia, which would be a major draw for parents. 

Besides this, there’s the simple fact that few projects offer units the same size as Arcadia, at the same cost. For example, here’s a look at the closest other units you can find in terms of size, and the resulting costs:

Average 4-bedroom sizes and prices

Even these close alternatives, like Duchess Crest, D’Leedon, and Leedon Residence, are still ultimately smaller. For the option that comes closest, which is the Leedon Residence unit at 3,127 sq. ft., the price is a stunning $7.86 million, or close to 40 per cent higher than Arcadia. 

If we look at it in terms of price psf, Arcadia also beats out these other condos; including the freehold Leedon Residence:

Average $PSF for 4-bedders

So overall, Arcadia has the largest unit sizes, the lowest average price psf, and the highest annualised gain on a psf basis. This is a very strong indicator of why it maintains its value, even in the face of lease decay.

The concerns work favourably for investors, as well as owner-occupiers:

Rental yield in 2024

4-bedroom units

The Arcadia has the second highest rental yield next to D’Leedon, at 3.22 per cent. When you couple this with higher rentability due to the unit size, proximity to good schools, etc., The Arcadia might be more attractive to investors, despite the slightly lower yield. 

However, we have to raise a caveat about the high quantum and lease decay 

As projects get older, banks may reduce the maximum financing. If a buyer were to purchase The Arcadia today, for example, and attempt to sell it a decade or more down the road, subsequent buyers may be faced with limited Loan To Value (LTV) limits, such as just 55 per cent. 

This may be tolerable for smaller older resale units, but the combination of an unusually high quantum, plus limited financing, may disproportionately impact The Arcadia. So, despite its stellar performance as an older leasehold condo, this is a very real concern for buyers today, and it might weigh down further appreciation in the future. 

Nonetheless, The Arcadia is a textbook example of how an older leasehold condo can still thrive, but only under the right conditions. Its strong performance from 2016 to 2024 underscores the enduring appeal of large-format homes in prestigious, low-density locations like Bukit Timah. But it also tends to draw niche buyers, who are likely more focused on owner-occupancy than resale goals. 

Ultimately, it’s not just about finding the biggest unit at the lowest price per square foot, it’s also about understanding how factors like LTV restrictions and buyer pool shrinkage can impact your long-term exit.

That said, opportunities still exist in legacy projects like this, especially in low-density enclaves where land scarcity and lifestyle appeal remain strong drivers of value.

Curious how this applies to your own buying or selling goals? Let’s chat – we’ll connect you with someone from our team who can walk you through the numbers. For our next study, we’ll be looking at The Tanamera and Loyang Valley; so join us on Stacked Pro as we reveal the real performance (and limitations) of these ageing leasehold condos.