Same Condo, Same Layout — But A $1M Profit Gap: A Data-Driven Study On Martin Modern

Watertown condo is an interesting case study, as buyers weren’t sure what to expect when it launched in 2012. At the time, many still considered Punggol to be too “ulu” to see good resale gains, and some were sceptical about the impact of Waterway Point as a major recreational/family hub. Still, some buyers were bold and jumped in early, perhaps because of the integrated status and access to Punggol MRT. Let’s see if their decision paid off, compared to those who took longer to decide:

Did early buyers of Martin Modern secure the best gains, or did those who waited for later phases come out ahead?

In this installment of our case study series, we examine how different batches of buyers have performed over time. By comparing price movements from Martin Modern’s initial launch phase to subsequent sales periods, we aim to address a common investor question: Is it always better to buy early, or can waiting actually pay off?

The rundown on Martin Modern

Martin Modern is a 99-year lease condo in River Valley (District 9), with 450 units. The initial launch of Martin Modern was in July 2017, and the project was completed in 2021 (the lease start date is from 2016). The average holding period throughout the project is around five years, with average annualised returns being around 2.75 per cent.

Let’s look at whether the earlier or later buyers saw better returns:

2-bedder units

In general, early buyers (i.e., those who purchased during the initial launch at lower PSFs) saw the best overall returns, both in profit and annualised percentage gains. The buyers in 2017 saw returns of about 2.2 to 3.4 per cent, while the 2018 buyers saw a gain of just 0.5 per cent, and a marginal loss of 0.1 per cent. 

Note that during the launch, the price difference didn’t seem too big at first. The price difference between #15-11 and #16-11, for example, was just 0.5 per cent. But four months later (November), #17-11 sold at almost 9.5 per cent higher than #16-11. 

The price difference seemed to diminish again toward the end of the launch. E.g., the price gap between #23-11 (bought in January 2018)  and #21-11 (bought in September 2018) was only around 0.5 per cent. 

This was probably due to there being only a small handful of units left by 2018; the developer may have kept prices constrained to clear out the inventory. Sadly, this didn’t help with the original buyers’ returns, compared to the early birds.

Next, we look at the 3-bedder units

Just like the 2-bedroom units, early buyers in 2017 benefited most, with lower entry prices allowing better gains. The most notable example here is between #11-08 and #21-08: 

#21-08 was purchased earlier (July 2017) at a significantly lower price of $2,259 psf.

#11-08 was purchased later (February 2018) at $2,604 psf, a 15.3 per cent premium over #21-08. Both units had the same holding period of 4.1 years; but thanks to the lower entry price, the sellers of #21-08 made around $1 million more than #11-08!

As with 2-bedders, we can see a minimal price difference during the launch period. #21-08 was priced only 0.3 per cent higher than #20-08. By February 2018, differences became more pronounced: unit #11-08 was bought for 26.6 per cent higher than #10-08; a significant price jump in just seven months. 

By November 2018, even lower floor units were selling for more than higher-floor units did at launch. #05-08, for instance, sold at 11.5 per cent higher than #21-08, despite being 16 storeys lower.

Next, we look at the 4-bedders:

This time it’s a bit less decisive than the smaller units. #03-03 didn’t do as well as #15-03 despite being bought earlier; but we need to acknowledge that #03-03 had a much shorter holding period than the other two. #03-03 is also five floors lower than #08-03. 

In addition, #03-03 was the smallest size-wise, which may have had an impact. The end result was #08-03, which was sold around a month earlier, making around $500,000 more than #03-03.

In any case, for Martin Modern, do note that many of the larger units were sold during the early stages, so their price hikes were more evident even early on. Later in December 2017, for example, #15-03 sold at seven per cent higher than #08-03 (albeit being on a higher floor).

Other key observations:

A key difference between Martin Modern and the other projects is that, due to a stroke of good luck, this project was launched during a market recovery. Right up to 2017, the market had been in a downturn from previous cooling measures. 

Because Martin Modern’s launch took place during a bounceback in 2018, the developer had more room to raise prices, as the market recovered. This was bad news for the later 2018 buyers though, as it means they missed the boat and came in at a higher entry price; you can see that even the lower-floor units tended to be priced higher for these later buyers. 

We should also add the caveat that many of the owners had a good exit point: the aftermath of Covid (2021 onward) saw a housing supply crunch, which made for easier and more profitable sales. 

Overall though, Martin Modern shows it’s better to be among the earlier buyers. 

Next, we’ll look at further condo projects for our case studies on the difference of buying earlier versus later! Follow us on Stacked for the update. If you’d like to get in touch for a more in-depth consultation, you can do so here.