Much like the backside of a Secondary School delinquent, we’ve thickened our skin against the rotan of cooling measures.
We just got a statement that the government is “not averse” to more cooling measures. But when I mentioned it to my fellow property enthusiasts, the response has been along the lines of “Mmm. What we eating for dinner ah?”
Gone are the days when the mere threat of cooling measures would send them into hysterics, and they’d start making phone calls yelling “quickly close, close now!”
I saw the same thing a few days ago, when the Business Times and Morgan Stanley warned of potential measures.
In the past, the response would have been radio interviews, long blog posts by various directors, comments from REDAS, etc. But look what happened: The article made a brief buzz, prompted a few irritated sighs, and then was forgotten.
Why doesn’t anyone care as much?
I think we’ve grown used to the idea of cooling measures. They were shocking in previous decades like 2011, when Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) was introduced; and we howled in pain when the Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) and Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) kicked in a few years later.
But the gradual intensification of cooling measures means we’ve slowly adapted to the pain, and some of us may even grin in the face of them.
It doesn’t help that price movements seem to mock cooling measures
When MSR was first introduced, it sent resale flat prices into a tailspin until around 2018. But it all it took was Covid to completely undo all that work, and bring Cash Over Valuation (COV) back. Despite further changes to loan limits (even HDB loans are now capped at 75 per cent of the property price or value, whichever is lower), disgruntled buyers have watched as more resale flats climb to the $1.5 million mark, and even more 4-room flats start creeping toward the million-dollar mark.
Meanwhile, in the private property market, the accumulated barrage of cooling measures hasn’t stopped $2,200+ psf from becoming a new-launch norm, even in the OCR. Sure, ABSD rates and TDSR limits remain in place; but that hasn’t stopped the average new launch three-bedder from creeping past the $2 million mark, or leaving upgraders feeling (correction: actually being) priced out.
So sellers remain confident in the face of cooling measures, while buyers aren’t getting their hopes up. No one sees a need to get too excited.
That said, this is NOT a recommendation that you run out and buy before cooling measures.
My point is that, if things keep going at this rate, we should expect some kind of reaction – if for no other reason than optics. If you check out your social media feed, you’ll see a flood of angry comments about million-dollar flats, $2 million condos in fringe regions, etc. The informative ads about affordable BTO prices, reassurances that higher supply is incoming, and so forth haven’t turned down the temperature.
I do think the government is doing what it can to avoid drastic measures:
I would interpret HDB ramping up flat production, and the Government churning out land sales sites, as a form of their being lenient since the end of Covid. But the market seems to be testing the very limits of that tolerance; and the longer prices go in this direction, the more we’re raising the probability of a new cooling measure. Let’s hope the momentum slows before the end of Q1, thus saving the market’s collective behinds from the rotan.
Meanwhile in other property news:
- Where to find the most sizeable 4-room flats from $490,000? Here are some good places to start looking.
- Missed out on your first choice for a home? Here’s how to find some affordable alternatives.
- It’s been 15 years since we’ve seen a new condo in this part of Upper East Coast Road, and here’s Bagnall Haus, finally coming to buck the trend.
- If it rains anymore this January, we’ll need CDC vouchers for snorkelling gear. These flood-prone areas tend to be the worst hit.
- It’s lonely at the top. Also, the most annoying when the leaks come. The topmost units may be prestigious, but here’s why not everyone loves them.
Weekly Sales Roundup (06 January – 12 January)
Top 5 Most Expensive New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| MEYER BLUE | $3,766,000 | 1141 | $3,301 | FH |
| NAVA GROVE | $3,758,000 | 1550 | $2,424 | 99 yrs (2024) |
| PINETREE HILL | $3,685,000 | 1464 | $2,517 | 99 years |
| ONE BERNAM | $3,526,000 | 1421 | $2,482 | 99 yrs (2019) |
| THE CONTINUUM | $3,282,000 | 1087 | $3,019 | FH |
Top 5 Cheapest New Sales (By Project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| THE COLLECTIVE AT ONE SOPHIA | $1,231,000 | 452 | $2,723 | 99 yrs (2023) |
| ONE BERNAM | $1,295,000 | 441 | $2,934 | 99 yrs (2019) |
| LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES | $1,399,000 | 581 | $2,407 | 99 years |
| HILLOCK GREEN | $1,650,000 | 710 | $2,323 | 99 years |
| LENTORIA | $1,754,000 | 732 | $2,396 | 99 yrs (2022) |
Top 5 Most Expensive Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| EDEN RESIDENCES CAPITOL | $12,700,000 | 3412 | $3,722 | 99 yrs (2011) |
| ST REGIS RESIDENCES SINGAPORE | $7,200,000 | 2486 | $2,896 | 999 yrs (1995) |
| LATITUDE | $7,200,000 | 2788 | $2,583 | FH |
| REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY | $7,200,000 | 3283 | $2,193 | 99 yrs (2006) |
| PARVIS | $6,100,000 | 2788 | $2,188 | FH |
Top 5 Cheapest Resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| KINGSFORD WATERBAY | $712,000 | 484 | $1,470 | 99 yrs (2014) |
| RIVERSAILS | $725,000 | 506 | $1,433 | 99 yrs (2011) |
| THE LENOX | $760,000 | 431 | $1,765 | FH |
| PARC ELEGANCE | $800,000 | 474 | $1,689 | FH |
| SIMS URBAN OASIS | $800,000 | 409 | $1,956 | 99 yrs (2014) |
Top 5 Biggest Winners
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| BOTANIC GARDENS MANSION | $3,700,000 | 1755 | $2,109 | $2,970,000 | 26 Years |
| BOTANIC GARDENS VIEW | $3,650,000 | 1755 | $2,080 | $2,811,800 | 26 Years |
| PARVIS | $6,100,000 | 2788 | $2,188 | $1,850,000 | 14 Years |
| LA SUISSE | $2,630,000 | 1658 | $1,587 | $1,770,000 | 22 Years |
| BOONVIEW | $2,420,000 | 1292 | $1,874 | $1,656,000 | 19 Years |
Top 5 Biggest Losers
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| CLIVEDEN AT GRANGE | $4,800,000 | 2153 | $2,230 | -$3,056,100 | 17 Years |
| REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY | $7,200,000 | 3283 | $2,193 | -$1,365,000 | 17 Years |
| BEAUFORT ON NASSIM | $3,300,000 | 1238 | $2,666 | -$428,400 | 18 Years |
| MARINA ONE RESIDENCES | $1,588,000 | 775 | $2,049 | -$270,428 | 10 Years |
| ESPADA | $1,680,000 | 721 | $2,329 | -$187,390 | 14 Years |
Transaction Breakdown
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Frequently asked questions
Are property cooling measures in Singapore likely to increase in 2025?
How have property prices responded to cooling measures over the years?
What is the current market sentiment towards property prices despite cooling measures?
What actions is the government taking to prevent property prices from rising too quickly?
Should I buy property now considering the potential for new cooling measures?
2 Comments
This article offers a detailed analysis of the potential property cooling measures in Singapore for 2025. The insightful breakdown of possible policy changes and their impact on both buyers and sellers is highly informative. It’s a must-read for those looking to understand the future of Singapore’s real estate market amidst regulatory shifts.